Deep dive · NGM: CSGS
CSG Systems International, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on CSG Systems International, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
2 factors lean up and 1 lean down and the split is genuine rather than a formality. The net lands at +3 over 30d, a leaning reading.
Leans up · and why
earnings, sentiment vote up.
Leans down · and why
risk flags vote down.
Global tape
No overseas listings — CSGS trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart here
Wall Street rating
Hold
Across 16 covering firms
0% buy · 100% hold · 0% sell
Valuation
15.0× forward
80th of its own five-year range
5yr median 26×
FCF yield 6.15%
FCF yield 6.15%
Dividend
1.69%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
3 on watch
5 checks run, 2 clear
worst drawdown 0%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does274 chars
CSG Systems International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides revenue management and digital monetization, customer experience, and payment solutions primarily to the communications industry in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
NGM · USDApplication Software
$80.690.00 · 0.00%CLOSED · vol 4
52-week range↑ 33% off low · ↓ 0.0% off high
$60.54now $80.69$80.73
Tape 2026-05-15
01Ratios · Jul 7, 2026NO SOLVENCY RISK
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 3.3 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
3.31SAFE ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 7, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
14.2σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.100%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 5/9
Piotroski F-score 5 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.44×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital1.99
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.35
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$385.43M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
53rd pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldSHRINKING
3.51%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
3.62%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
3.7%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
SBC / operating cash flowFLAT
29%
How much of the cash the business generates is being handed to employees as stock. The higher it runs, the more of a buyback is just offsetting it.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
1.89%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
70 / 100
0 critical · 3 watch · 2 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 3.31Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.70M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageWATCHLTD/E 1.90long-term debt 1.90× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 5/9Piotroski F-score 5 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 3 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026FAIR · 42/100
Business quality
5% net margin, 20% return on equity, +2% revenue growth, and capital earning 13% against a 7% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
42 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
4.6%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
49.0%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
11.3%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
19.7%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
5.6pp
Earns 13% on invested capital that costs about 7%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Asset growth vs peersIN LINE
47th pctile
The balance sheet grew +3% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+0.5%
3 months+1.3%
6 months+2.8%
Year to date+5.1%
1 year+23.5%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+2.2%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-34.7%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
Around earningsMay 6, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
79%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 7–8 OF THE LAST 8
7 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
32%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±3.6%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missASYMMETRIC
+2.4% / -3.1%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
Sells the newsON THE PRINT
No
No habit of selling off on a good report in the measured window.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
1.69%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
>2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,479,705
21d49%0.0%695,010
63d51%+0.1%220,093
slope +0.01 over 40 bars
Dragonfly doji · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d36%0.0%507,560
21d40%0.0%237,486
63d44%0.0%73,638
long lower shadow, open=close near high
Triple top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%975,500
21d52%+0.2%458,215
63d54%+0.5%144,909
three peaks ≈ equal
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%964,809
21d50%0.0%453,015
63d52%+0.3%142,744
three troughs ≈ equal
Rectangle
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%0.0%221,317
21d48%0.0%103,709
63d50%0.0%32,594
horizontal range
52w breakout · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%195,888
21d46%0.0%91,765
63d52%+0.2%28,677
at/near 52-week high
Near support · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%536,115
21d53%+0.2%251,312
63d54%+0.4%78,900
testing recent support
Rsi overbought · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d40%0.0%265,199
21d42%0.0%124,339
63d46%0.0%39,280
RSI 70 ≥ 70
0380TH OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $80.69, 15.0× forward earnings, RSI 74.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Momentum (RSI-14)
74OVERBOUGHT
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-05-13 → 2026-05-15
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 0.00% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.02
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Pivots (classic)R1 $81 · S1 $81
$80.69
The last settled session's range projected forward. Reference levels, not predictions — after a big gap they can sit on the wrong side of the price until the next close.
DeMark countdownFLAT SETUP
0 of 9
Counts consecutive closes against the prior trend. A completed 9 often marks exhaustion.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
46 / 53cohort n=3,973
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.00× segment rate · n=80,992
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 79% of cases (n=80,992).
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 2 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 53% of cases (n=3,973) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-1.77pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-5.45
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months15.0×5yr median 26×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported36.0×80th of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth3.51
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit1.9×5yr median 1.5×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets8.1×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay14.0×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off19.0×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value6.15%
3 of the 8 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableThis security is delisted, so there is no live tape to compose entry, target and stop against.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +3
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 109%, short interest is 17.91% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+3LEANING · 30d
2 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+3
latest EPS beat by 32%
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (100/100)
Risk flagsDAILY · CONTEXT
-1
expensive valuation (bottom-quintile earnings yield)
Signal
2 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +3 over 30d, a leaning reading. 3 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street16 covering firms
Consensus rating16 ANALYSTS
Hold
0% buy · 100% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 16 covering firms.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
109.1%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
4.3%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)CROWDED
17.91%
The share of the tradable float sold short.
Free float92% OF SHARES
26.31M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)74th PCTILE
$28.86M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved on Sep 27, 2026NONE
flat
We don't have a fresh enough quote for CSGS to measure its move since the last close.
News tone · 7-day—
100 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 20 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
TueCSG Systems International stock holds a measured market profile - ad-hoc-news.dead-hoc-news.denot scored
MonCSGS stock holds steady as investors digest recent earnings and guidance - AD HOC NEWSAD HOC NEWSnot scored
Sep 4CSGS stock gains as revenue and EPS stay under watch - AD HOC NEWSAD HOC NEWSnot scored
Sep 2CSGS stock reacts to cash merger terms and delisting plans - AD HOC NEWSAD HOC NEWSnot scored
Aug 18CSG (CSGS) Earnings Comparison: Reported EPS Tops Expectations in the Latest Session The Earnings State Is Recorded Independently of the Stock - Earnings Forecast Report - VinanetVinanetnot scored
Aug 18CSG (CSGS) Earnings Comparison: Reported EPS Tops Expectations in the Latest Session The Earnings State Is Recorded Independently of the Stock - Earnings Quality Analysis - dars.gov.etdars.gov.etnot scored
Aug 14CSGS Q1 2026 Earnings: EPS Clocks 19.4% Upside Surprise - Revenue Per Share - VinanetVinanetnot scored
Aug 8How Csg Systems International Inc. (CSGS) Affects Rotational Strategy Timing - Stock Traders DailyStock Traders Dailynot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0512 graded calls
Risk & track record
a 0% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
0.0%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
What votes againstNightly
LowRisk flagsexpensive valuation (bottom-quintile earnings yield)Daily · -1
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Avoid score6-month distress
0.8%0.1× its cohort · heavily-traded large-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this heavily-traded large-caps segment: 8.0%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
LowPosition sizeThe sizing model has not covered this name, so no defensible cap is published for it.Not scored
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Data unavailableNone of the skip conditions can be evaluated for this name yet — they each need a measured drawdown, beta, yield or scheduled report to key off.
Our track record12 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
32 logged
32 calls logged on this name, 12 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on CSGSTHIS NAME
32
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 12.
0610-K disclosed linksAPPLICATION SOFTWARE
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+7.8% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
SAPGFPeer$209.92+0.68%
SAPPeer$210.68+0.75%
CRMPeer$234.02-1.76%
SHOPPeer$142.25-2.00%
NOWPeer$135.62-1.57%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 25, 2026
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedSoftware companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
On the day +0.6% · A week later -0.6% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 21 of 35 report days
Across the last 35 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, CSGS moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Software profits are mostly far in the future and worth less at higher rates.
Typical for the Application Software industry
On the day +0.1% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later +0.7% · Rose on 19 of 35 report days
Across the last 35 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, CSGS moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedSoftware companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
On the day +0.6% · A week later -0.6% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 21 of 35 report days
Across the last 35 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, CSGS moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Software companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 20 of 34 report days
Across the last 34 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, CSGS moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Software companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 20 of 34 report days
Across the last 34 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, CSGS moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Rising joblessness pushes the Fed toward lower rates, which lifts growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 70 of 152 report days
Across the last 152 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, CSGS moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expected
Software companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
Typical for the Application Software industry
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 21 of 35 report days
Across the last 35 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, CSGS moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually hurts when job openings come in higher than expectedStrong hiring tells the Fed it can keep rates high, which weighs on growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later +1.4% · Two weeks later +1.5% · Rose on 14 of 34 report days
Across the last 34 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, CSGS moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 1.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · 3 confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
DISH · Suppliersuppliernot pricedConfirmed · 10K
TWX · Suppliersuppliernot pricedConfirmed · 10K
CHTR · Suppliersupplier-3.95%Confirmed · 10K
3 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
What it depends on
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.