Deep dive · NasdaqGS: CENTA
Central Garden & Pet Company stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Central Garden & Pet Company. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Quality and Positioning are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at +4 over 30d, a leaning reading on a dispersion of 0.14, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
quality / value, earnings vote up. 4 of 5 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
insider flow vote down. 1 of 5 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Quality against Positioning.
What it changes
Size, not direction. separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −5.5%; and the binding position cap is 3.2% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean-1.19%
FrankfurtGP7A-1.19%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 1 overseas venue listed above with a quote, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-11-06
Wall Street rating
Hold
+13% to the average target
80% buy · 0% hold · 20% sell
mean target $46
mean target $46
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $36.24 · +12.6%
200-day $35.38 · +15.3%
200-day $35.38 · +15.3%
Earnings
In 17 days
25 Nov 2026
beat 7–8 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 80% · n=36,342
cohort P(beat) 80% · n=36,342
Valuation
13.2× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield 11.40%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 3 clear
beta 0.26 · vol 29% ann.
worst drawdown -17%
worst drawdown -17%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does142 chars
Central Garden & Pet Company produces and distributes various products for the lawn and garden, and pet supplies markets in the United States.
NasdaqGS · USDPackaged Foods
$40.80-0.28 · -0.68%CLOSED · vol 200.1K
52-week range↑ 49% off low · ↓ 3.9% off high
$27.41now $40.80$42.44
Quote Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
01Ratios · Jul 6, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 2.7 against a 3.0 safe threshold, interest covered 4.3×, and 3 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
2.69GREY ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 6, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
9.1σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.100%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreCLEAR
F 8/9
Piotroski F-score 8 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills3.67×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.91
Interest coverageoperating profit against the interest bill, from the latest annual SEC filing4.3×healthy >5
Leverage · long-term debt / total assetsthe share of everything the company owns that long-term borrowing funds0.33
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$557.82M
Free cash flow · TTMcash left after running and reinvesting in the business$282.42M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
11th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldSHRINKING
6.39%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
6.39%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
0.7%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
SBC / operating cash flowFLAT
6%
How much of the cash the business generates is being handed to employees as stock. The higher it runs, the more of a buyback is just offsetting it.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
1.14%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
80 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 3 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 2.69Altman-Z in the Grey · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.75M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.75long-term debt 0.75× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCLEARF 8/9Piotroski F-score 8 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 3 clear and 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Nov 8, 2026FAIR · 56/100
Business quality
5% net margin, 10% return on equity, -2% revenue growth, and capital earning 9% against a 6% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
56 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Nov 8, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
5.2%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
31.9%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
8.0%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
10.3%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
3.0pp
Earns 9% on invested capital that costs about 6%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Asset growth vs peersIN LINE
44th pctile
The balance sheet grew +2% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+16.5%
3 months+6.8%
6 months+19.2%
Year to date+39.8%
1 year+43.6%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-2.2%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)MARGINS WIDENING
+55.5%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+23.3%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 18%
83 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 5, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
80%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 7–8 OF THE LAST 8
8 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
14%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±5.1%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missASYMMETRIC
+3.3% / -8.8%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
Sells the newsON THE PRINT
No
No habit of selling off on a good report in the measured window.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geographyFY2025 · dimensional XBRL
Signal
Revenue is spread across several lines.
Other garden products is 26% of revenue across 5 disclosed segments, giving a product HHI of 2,065. No single line dominates, so a downturn in one market does not automatically become a downturn in the company.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Nov 6, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.1%1,163,542
21d47%-0.4%549,860
63d47%-0.8%174,335
slope +0.20 over 40 bars
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%1,293,438
21d49%0.0%607,588
63d51%+0.2%191,671
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Cup and handle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.3%717,973
21d46%-0.6%340,024
63d47%-1.3%107,220
U-base + small handle pullback
0313.2× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $40.80, 13.2× forward earnings, RSI 70.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2003 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $36.24 · 200-day $35.38. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-11-04 → 2026-11-06
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Down 0.68% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)WARM
70
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±3.0%
$1.23
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.29
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position83% OF RANGE
Upper band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$38.57
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$38.76
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
25 Nov 2026 · in 17 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number.
2026-11-10 · in 2 daysInflation (CPI)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
54 / 46cohort n=20,474
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.07× segment rate · n=13,626
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 85% of cases (n=13,626).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
1.3σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$40 – $411 support
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $40.13.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 0 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 46% of cases (n=20,474) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
1.76pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-8.87
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months13.2×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported15.1×
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth1.20
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.8×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.6×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay8.7×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off10.7×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value11.40%
1 of the 8 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingNov 6, 2026
Entryzone of S1
$40.60In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetBb upper + 52-week high + round
$42.37$42–$43
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$38.14risk $2.45/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.72:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-11.2%
short-term trend line · $36.24
To the 200-day
-13.3%
primary trend line · $35.38
To the put wall
-2.0%
heaviest put open interest · $40.00
To the call wall
-2.0%
heaviest call open interest · $40.00
To the composer's target
+3.8%
Bb upper + 52-week high + round · set Nov 6, 2026 · $42.37
To the composer's stop
-6.5%
2× ATR below entry · set Nov 6, 2026 · $38.14
To the 52-week high
+4.0%
highest print of the past year · $42.44
To the 52-week low
-32.8%
lowest print of the past year · $27.41
A typical day (ATR)
$39.57 – $42.03
±$1.23 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $40.60 · stop $38.14 · target $42.37, a 0.72:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 23, 2026
Call wallheaviest call OI
$40.00+13.9%
The strike with the heaviest call open interest. It tends to act as a ceiling into expiry.
Put wallheaviest put OI
$40.00+13.9%
The strike with the heaviest put open interest. Dealer hedging tends to cushion price here.
Options tapeLast snapshot before the 2026-09-18 expiry · Chain · Sep 23, 2026
Max pain+13.9%
$40.00
The strike where most open options would have expired worthless on the last snapshot. That expiry has passed; the next chain read replaces it.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.44
69% calls
31% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.00
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$40.00CALL16
$40.00PUT8
$15.00CALL2
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-09-18 (expired)CallsPutsMax pain $40.00
0
$45.00
016
$40.00
82
$15.00
0
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$42.44+20.8%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$40.00+13.9%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$40.00+13.9%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$36.24+3.2%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$40.00+13.9%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +4
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 96%, short interest is 2.18% of float, and 2 analysts average $46.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+4LEANING · 30d
2 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+1
4 of the prior 4 quarters beat
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($539,600 across 6 sells) in 120d
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
+4
strong Piotroski F-score (8/9)
Signal
2 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +4 over 30d, a leaning reading. 3 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readNov 8, 2026
Signal
4 of 5 families lean up.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.14 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street2 covering firms
Consensus rating2 ANALYSTS
Hold
80% buy · 0% hold · 20% sell, as a share of the 2 covering firms.
Mean price target+13%
$46
$39now $41$50
A $39–$50 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$3.09
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
96.1%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
3.6%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
2.18%
Falling — shares short changed -18.1% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Dollar volume (ADV)68th PCTILE
$13.50M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Funds entering / exitingNET +23
+27 / −4
Institutions opening a first position against those closing out entirely, at the latest filings.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Machek Howard · Chief Accounting OfficerOption exercise$174,953—05 Nov
Machek Howard · Chief Accounting OfficerTax withholding$190,973—05 Nov
Barnes Jason · President GardenFilingnot on file—19 Oct
BROWN WILLIAM E · Director, Chairman, 10% ownerSellnot on file—24 Sep
BROWN WILLIAM E · Director, Chairman, 10% ownerSell$152,100—13 Aug
PENNINGTON BROOKS III · DirectorGiftnot on file—12 Aug
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
-0.68%
CENTA fell −0.68% since the last close — no identified catalyst in our coverage.
News tone · 7-day—
57 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 41 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
SatForm 4 Central Garden & Pet Company: Howard Machek (Chief Accounting Officer) For: 5 November By Investing.com - Investing.com IndiaInvesting.com Indianot scored
FriTo pay the exercise price and taxes, Central Garden & Pet (CENT) withholds 4,594 shares. - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
ThuThe Technical Signals Behind (CENTA) That Institutions Follow - Stock Traders DailyStock Traders Dailynot scored
WedCentral Garden & Pet Company (CENTA) Stock Forecasts - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
WedCentral Garden & Pet Company stock hits 52-week high at $41.00 - Investing.comInvesting.comnot scored
WedCentral Garden & Pet Company (CENTA) Stock Price Prediction for 2026, 2030-2040 - Traders UnionTraders Unionnot scored
MonCentral Garden & Pet Company (CENTA) Stock Forecasts - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
Oct 30Central Garden & Pet Company (CENTA) Seasonal Returns Chart - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net selling.
2 of 6 disclosures are buys and 4 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0518 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.26, 29% annual volatility, a -17% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−5.5%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−10.7%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.2×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-17.4%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.26
The market explains about 1.9% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
29%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure47
Overheat25
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($539,600 across 6 sells) in 120d120d · -1
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
0.8%0.1× its cohort · heavily-traded large-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this heavily-traded large-caps segment: 8.0%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 55.0% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 3.2% is the number (n=140,733). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 5.4% against a 14.4% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 17 days.
Our track record18 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
52 logged
52 calls logged on this name, 18 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
0610-K disclosed linksPACKAGED FOODS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 1 connection.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-41.4% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
KHCPeer$24.61-2.80%
GISPeer$35.51-2.61%
MKCPeer$48.40-3.32%
MKC-VPeer$48.77-2.64%
HRLPeer$21.95-2.88%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Inflation (CPI)
2026-11-10. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockNov 4, 2026
Retail sales is due in 9 days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expectedGrocery and household goods are part of the same total.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.6% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +0.1% · Rose on 25 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, CENTA moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 0.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsLittle effect either way
Grocery and household spending barely changes with the job market.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later +0.9% · Rose on 89 of 172 report days
Across the last 172 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, CENTA moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Housing starts is due in 10 days.
Housing startsLittle effect either wayLittle direct link.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later -0.7% · Rose on 20 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, CENTA moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.7% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionLittle effect either way
Everyday essentials sell the same either way.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.6% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +0.1% · Rose on 25 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, CENTA moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 0.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI) is due in 5 days.
Producer prices (PPI)Little effect either wayFood and household brands pass higher costs on to shoppers over time; little reaction on the day.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 23 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, CENTA moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 12 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Little effect either wayLittle direct link.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later -0.6% · Two weeks later +0.4% · Rose on 23 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, CENTA moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Little effect either way
Food and household brands pass higher costs on to shoppers over time; little reaction on the day.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later -0.8% · Two weeks later +0.7% · Rose on 13 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, CENTA moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 0.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI) is due in 2 days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Little effect either wayFood and household brands pass higher costs on to shoppers over time; little reaction on the day.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later +0.6% · Rose on 22 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, CENTA moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 0.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections1 link · none confirmed
Direct connections · 1 edge
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
WMT · Customercustomer-1.72%Rumored · 10K
0 of 1 edge is named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
Who depends on it
WMTCustomercustomer
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.