Deep dive · NYQ: AVB
AvalonBay Communities Inc stock analysis
Everything behind the call on AvalonBay Communities Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — AVB trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart here
Wall Street rating
Hold
+10% to the average target
26% buy · 74% hold · 0% sell
median target $202
median target $202
Earnings
In 31 days
28 Oct 2026
beat ≤2 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
Valuation
36.8× forward
32nd of its own five-year range
5yr median 26×
FCF yield 5.49%
FCF yield 5.49%
Dividend
3.87%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
3 on watch
5 checks run, 1 clear
worst drawdown -8%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does68 chars
AvalonBay Communities, Inc., a member of S&P 500, is an equity REIT.
NYQ · USDResidential REITs
$184.060.00 · 0.00%CLOSED · vol 2.47M
52-week range↑ 221% off low · ↓ 0.8% off high
$57.32now $184.06$185.62
Quote Aug 14, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-08-24
Tape 2026-08-24
01Ratios · Jul 6, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 1.9 against a 3.0 safe threshold, interest covered 7.8×, and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
1.86GREY ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 6, 2026
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 4/9
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills0.23×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.82
Interest coverageoperating profit against the interest bill7.8×healthy >5
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.42
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$9.31B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
39th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldSHRINKING
1.53%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
1.86%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueELEVATED
375.7%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
62 / 100
0 critical · 3 watch · 1 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 1.81Altman-Z in the grey zone · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not applicable to this sector · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.73long-term debt 0.73× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/9Piotroski F-score 4 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 3 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026FAIR · 41/100
Business quality
35% net margin, 9% return on equity, +4% revenue growth, and capital earning 4% against a 6% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
41 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
34.6%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
63.1%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
30.2%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
9.1%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-2.6pp
Earns 4% on invested capital that costs about 6%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
-2.7%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+183.4%
3 months-63.2%
6 months-61.6%
Year to date-62.2%
1 year-64.8%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+4.4%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-2.6%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
Around earningsJul 21, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
39%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT ≤2 OF THE LAST 8
2 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
53%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
50%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±1.1%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missSYMMETRIC
+0.2% / +0.9%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
3.87%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
1-2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 5, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.06 over 34 bars
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,216,877
21d51%+0.1%572,733
63d52%+0.3%181,607
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Falling wedge · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%430,231
21d50%0.0%203,310
63d50%+0.1%64,486
falling & converging — bullish
Near resistance · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%530,198
21d52%+0.2%248,435
63d54%+0.4%78,078
testing recent resistance
Macd bullish cross · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.1%152,722
21d47%-0.2%71,974
63d48%-0.3%22,826
MACD crossed above signal
0332ND OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $184.06, 36.8× forward earnings, RSI 56.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Momentum (RSI-14)
56WARM
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-08-20 → 2026-08-24
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Up 0.00% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Typical day (ATR-14)±0.8%
$1.53
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.06
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position100% OF RANGE
Upper band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$65.66
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$64.47
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Pivots (classic)R1 $69 · S1 $67
$68.04
The last settled session's range projected forward. Reference levels, not predictions — after a big gap they can sit on the wrong side of the price until the next close.
28 Oct 2026 · in 31 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
54 / 46cohort n=21,665
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.00× segment rate · n=45,352
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 66% of cases (n=45,352).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
1.2σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 0 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 46% of cases (n=21,665) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-1.00pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-23.79
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months36.8×5yr median 26×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported25.2×32nd of its 5yr range
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit8.4×5yr median 9.8×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets2.2×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay15.7×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off24.8×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value5.49%
5 of the 7 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableThis security is delisted, so there is no live tape to compose entry, target and stop against.
Gamma mapChain · Aug 25, 2026
Call wallheaviest call OI
$200.00+8.7%
The strike with the heaviest call open interest. It tends to act as a ceiling into expiry.
Put wallheaviest put OI
$170.00-7.6%
The strike with the heaviest put open interest. Dealer hedging tends to cushion price here.
Options tapeLast snapshot before the 2026-08-21 expiry · Chain · Aug 25, 2026
Max pain+3.2%
$190.00
The strike where most open options would have expired worthless on the last snapshot. That expiry has passed; the next chain read replaces it.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.13
88% calls
12% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
1.14
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$200.00CALL1,546
$195.00CALL157
$190.00CALL114
$170.00PUT99
$185.00PUT56
$180.00PUT40
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-08-21 (expired)CallsPutsMax pain $190.00
1
$220.00
011
$210.00
02k
$200.00
0157
$195.00
0114
$190.00
2215
$185.00
562
$180.00
401
$175.00
150
$170.00
990
$165.00
70
$160.00
60
$150.00
10
$145.00
2
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$185.62+0.8%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$200.00+8.7%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$190.00+3.2%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ Put wall$170.00-7.6%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -3
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 95%, short interest is 2.80% of float, and 13 analysts average $202.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-3LEANING · 30d
0 bull / 3 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
-1
1 analyst downgrade in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-1
4 of the prior 4 quarters missed
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
-1
7d sentiment depressed (25/100)
Signal
0 bull / 3 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -3 over 30d, a leaning reading. 3 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street13 covering firms
Consensus rating13 ANALYSTS
Hold
26% buy · 74% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 13 covering firms.
Median price target+10%
$202
$189now $184$225
A $189–$225 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$5.03
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Barclays$206↑53/100
Evercore ISI Group$196↓52/100
Piper Sandler$210↑57/100
Barclays$205↑53/100
Scotiabank$195↑43/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
95.5%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.4%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
2.80%
Rising — shares short changed +25.2% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float96% OF SHARES
133.81M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)97th PCTILE
$633.29M/day
At this depth, position size is not a constraint for a retail account.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Schall Benjamin · Director, CEO & PresidentSellnot on file—17 Aug
O'Shea Kevin P. · Chief Financial OfficerAwardnot on file—17 Aug
O'Shea Kevin P. · Chief Financial OfficerSellnot on file—17 Aug
O'Shea Kevin P. · Chief Financial OfficerSellnot on file—17 Aug
Thomas Pamela Rogers · Executive Vice PresidentAwardnot on file—17 Aug
Thomas Pamela Rogers · Executive Vice PresidentSellnot on file—17 Aug
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved on Sep 25, 2026NEWS
0.00%
AVB was little changed +0.00% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “Could AvalonBay Communities (NYSE:AVB) Reset Its Market Story? - Kalkine Media” (Kalkine Media).
News tone · 7-day—
40 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 49 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
FriCould AvalonBay Communities (NYSE:AVB) Reset Its Market Story? - Kalkine MediaKalkine Medianot scored
WedAvalonBay Communities stock holds as housing data shape the outlook - AD HOC NEWSAD HOC NEWSnot scored
Sep 18AvalonBay Communities stock gains as analysts trim targets but stay positive - AD HOC NEWSAD HOC NEWSnot scored
Sep 17AvalonBay Communities Inc (N: AVB) Share Price, AVB Stock News, AVB Share Price & Updates - kalkine.cakalkine.canot scored
Sep 17AvalonBay Communities Inc (N: AVB) Share Price, AVB Stock News, AVB Share Price & Updates - KalkineKalkinenot scored
Sep 16Why Is the Market Reassessing AvalonBay Communities (AVB)? - Kalkine MediaKalkine Medianot scored
Sep 7AvalonBay Communities (NYSE:AVB): Is A Rate Shock Coming? - Kalkine MediaKalkine Medianot scored
Aug 27AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC SEC Filing (Aug 27, 2026) - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net buying.
4 of 6 disclosures are buys and 2 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0510 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
25% annual volatility, a -8% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-7.6%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
25%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
What votes againstNightly
LowAnalyst moves1 analyst downgrade in 90d90d · -1
LowEarnings4 of the prior 4 quarters missed4 quarters · -1
LowSentiment7d sentiment depressed (25/100)1–30d · -1
Signal
3 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Avoid score6-month distress
0.0%0.0× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.0× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
LowPosition sizeThe sizing model has not covered this name, so no defensible cap is published for it.Not scored
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 2.5% against a 7.8% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+3.21% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 31 days.
Our track record10 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
26 logged
26 calls logged on this name, 10 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on AVBTHIS NAME
26
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 10.
0610-K disclosed linksRESIDENTIAL REITS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 1 connection.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-36.9% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
EQRPeer$63.66-3.50%
ESSPeer$271.61-0.01%
INVHPeer$26.62+0.45%
SUIPeer$112.26+1.02%
MAAPeer$118.35+0.93%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is negative.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 24, 2026
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedProperty companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later -0.3% · Two weeks later -2.1% · Rose on 23 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, AVB moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 2.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Property companies borrow heavily; higher rates raise their costs and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later -2.3% · Two weeks later -1.9% · Rose on 18 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, AVB moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 1.9% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedProperty companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later -0.3% · Two weeks later -2.1% · Rose on 23 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, AVB moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 2.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Property companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later -1.2% · Rose on 19 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, AVB moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 1.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Property companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later -1.2% · Rose on 19 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, AVB moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 1.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Lower rates ease property companies' heavy borrowing costs.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day -0.4% · A week later -1.2% · Two weeks later +2.0% · Rose on 84 of 166 report days
Across the last 166 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, AVB moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 2.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Housing startsUsually hurts when more homes are started than expected
New apartments compete with the ones they already own.
Typical for the Residential REITs industry
On the day 0.0% · A week later -1.7% · Two weeks later -2.4% · Rose on 20 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, AVB moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 2.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually hurts when job openings come in higher than expectedStrong jobs push rates up, and property companies borrow heavily.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later -1.5% · Two weeks later +15.7% · Rose on 19 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, AVB moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 15.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections1 link · 1 confirmed
Direct connections · 1 edge
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
ELME · Competitorcompetitor+1.76%Confirmed · manual
1 of 1 edge is named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
Named competitors
ELMECompetitorcompetitor
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.