Deep dive · NasdaqGS: ASND
Ascendis Pharma A/S stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Ascendis Pharma A/S. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Event and Street are pulling against each other and the split is genuine rather than a formality. The net lands at +1 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.46, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
earnings, sentiment vote up. 2 of 4 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
analyst moves, insider flow vote down. 2 of 4 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Event against Street.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are long gamma, so their hedging absorbs moves rather than amplifying them; separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −9.4%; and the binding position cap is 3.3% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean0.00%
FrankfurtA7100.00%⏱MéxicoASND1N0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 2 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-18
Wall Street rating
Buy
+31% to the average target
100% buy · 0% hold · 0% sell
median target $311
median target $311
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $254.83 · -7.1%
200-day $234.41 · +1.0%
200-day $234.41 · +1.0%
Valuation
21.7× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield 0.29%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 0.29 · vol 46% ann.
worst drawdown -18%
worst drawdown -18%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does187 chars
Ascendis Pharma A/S, operates as a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing TransCon-based therapies for unmet medical needs in Europe, the United States, and internationally.
NasdaqGS · USDBiotechnology
$236.72-2.32 · -0.97%CLOSED · vol 1.56M
52-week range↑ 27% off low · ↓ 16.1% off high
$186.05now $236.72$282.15
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · 3:29 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
01Ratios · Jul 7, 2026
Survival & solvency
and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Distance to default (Merton)
9.1σCOMFORTABLE
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
Balance sheetJul 7, 2026
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.100%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 5/9
Piotroski F-score 5 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.04×healthy >2
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$255.75M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
66th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
67 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 1 clear of 3 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.61M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageNAn/aLong-term debt / equity not available · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 5/9Piotroski F-score 5 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 18, 2026GOOD · 72/100
Business quality
-32% net margin, 140% return on equity, +98% revenue growth, and capital earning -76% against a 7% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
72 / 100GOOD
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 18, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
-31.7%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
86.8%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
-18.9%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
140.1%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-83.2pp
Earns -76% on invested capital that costs about 7%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Revenue (TTM)+98% YoY
$865.78M
Trailing twelve-month revenue from the latest filings.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-7.9%
3 months+3.6%
6 months+6.8%
Year to date+12.1%
1 year+19.8%
Revenue growth (YoY)FAST
+98.0%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+30.1%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 35%
65 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 13, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
53%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 3–4 OF THE LAST 8
4 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
45%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
71%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±3.6%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 18, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,473,236
21d49%0.0%691,862
63d51%+0.2%218,831
slope +0.05 over 40 bars
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,242,409
21d50%0.0%584,002
63d51%+0.2%184,289
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%961,327
21d50%+0.1%451,185
63d52%+0.3%141,927
three troughs ≈ equal
Near support · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%533,688
21d53%+0.2%250,417
63d54%+0.4%78,400
testing recent support
0321.7× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $236.72, 21.7× forward earnings, RSI 37, and dealers long gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed1 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $254.83 · 200-day $234.41. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-13 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Down 0.97% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
37
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.9%
$11.54
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-3.06
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position4% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$252.59
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$237.83
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Elevated1.06× segment rate · n=502
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 70% of cases (n=502).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.9σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$228 – $2363 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Sma 200 at $234.41, Pivot low at $234.08, S1 at $233.93.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
51 / 100Hot selling
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
0.48pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-4.13
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months21.7×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported18.5×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit21.8×
Price / bookBook value is negative — liabilities exceed assets — so there is no asset base for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off351.0×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value0.29%
3 of the 5 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. 1 is marked not meaningful because the figure it divides into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 17, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1 + sma 200
$237.84In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetRound + sma 50 + vwap 50
$255.07$252–$258
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$215.29risk $22.56/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.76:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+7.6%
short-term trend line · $254.83
To the 200-day
-1.0%
primary trend line · $234.41
To the put wall
+1.4%
heaviest put open interest · $240.00
To the call wall
+26.7%
heaviest call open interest · $300.00
To the composer's target
+7.8%
Round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 17, 2026 · $255.07
To the composer's stop
-9.1%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 17, 2026 · $215.29
To the 52-week high
+19.2%
highest print of the past year · $282.15
To the 52-week low
-21.4%
lowest print of the past year · $186.05
Options-implied week ±6.8%
$220.62 – $252.82
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$225.18 – $248.26
±$11.54 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $237.84 · stop $215.29 · target $255.07, a 0.76:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 19, 2026
Signal
Long gamma — moves get absorbed.
Dealers hedge against the move, which damps volatility around the current strikes. It makes the tape quieter without saying anything about which way it goes.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-09-18 · Chain · Sep 19, 2026
Max pain+0.7%
$240.00
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.27
79% calls
21% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
3.06
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $16.21
±6.8%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$300.00CALL770
$280.00CALL247
$290.00CALL219
$240.00PUT164
$250.00PUT158
$270.00CALL147
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-09-18CallsPutsMax pain $240.00
770
$300.00
0219
$290.00
0247
$280.00
0147
$270.00
0138
$260.00
1514
$250.00
15879
$240.00
16417
$230.00
2411
$220.00
12919
$210.00
528
$200.00
037
$195.00
3929
$190.00
014
$185.00
08
$180.00
52
$175.00
0
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$282.15+18.4%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$300.00+25.8%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$240.00+0.7%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$254.83+6.9%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$240.00+0.7%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +1
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 103%, short interest is 6.77% of float, and 17 analysts average $311.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+1BALANCED · 30d
2 bull / 2 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
-1
6 price-target cuts in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+2
latest EPS beat by 17%
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($872,905 across 2 sells) in 120d
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (67/100)
Signal
2 bull / 2 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +1 over 30d, a balanced reading. 4 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 18, 2026
Signal
The evidence families are split down the middle.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.46 means the disagreement is a genuine split.
Wall Street17 covering firms
Consensus rating17 ANALYSTS
Buy
100% buy · 0% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 17 covering firms.
Median price target+31%
$311
$269now $237$359
A $269–$359 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$9.67
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Raymond James$287↓57/100
Oppenheimer$312↑54/100
Morgan Stanley$273↓50/100
Wedbush$327→60/100
B of A Securities$304↓51/100
Jefferies$330↓50/100
Stifel$326↓53/100
HC Wainwright & Co.$344↓50/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
103.2%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.8%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
6.77%
Rising — shares short changed +23.5% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float95% OF SHARES
62.11M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)90th PCTILE
$166.55M/day
At this depth, position size is not a constraint for a retail account.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Bodenhoff Mads · SVP & PAOOption exercise$330,000—08 Sep
Bodenhoff Mads · SVP & PAOSell$810,570—08 Sep
Bodenhoff Mads · SVP & PAOOption exercisenot on file—08 Sep
HOLTUG LARS · DirectorSell$62,335—02 Sep
BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES · DirectorBuy$270,435—14 Aug
BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES · DirectorBuy$222,219—14 Aug
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayPEER COMOVE
-0.97%
ASND fell −0.97% in after-hours trading alongside 3 of 3 peers (median 1.92%) — a sector/market move, not company-specific.
News tone · 7-day—
67 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 47 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
FriAscendis Pharma (ASND) Stock Looks Near Fair Value On Infant Trial Data - simplywall.stsimplywall.stnot scored
WedAscendis Pharma: Back To Full Independence (NASDAQ:ASND) - Seeking AlphaSeeking Alphanot scored
WedAscendis Pharma (ASND) Reclaims Global TransCon Rights For Obesity And Heart Disease - simplywall.stsimplywall.stnot scored
TueWhy Is Ascendis Pharma Stock Trading Lower on Tuesday? - BenzingaBenzinganot scored
TueASND: Share buyback, global expansion, and robust pipeline drive strong growth outlook through 2030 - TradingViewTradingViewnot scored
TueNovo Nordisk deal ends as Ascendis (NASDAQ: ASND) takes back obesity drug rights, with more programs shifting over - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
TueAscendis Pharma (NASDAQ: ASND) board okays discretionary $400M share buyback - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
MonAscendis plans a once-monthly obesity drug after its Novo deal ends - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Evenly split.
2 of 4 disclosures are buys and 2 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0510 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.29, 46% annual volatility, a -18% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−9.4%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−17.4%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.3×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-17.6%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.29
The market explains about 0.9% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
46%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Hot selling
Selling pressure71
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: hot_selling — Selling pressure is elevated — down-volume has dominated 3 of the last 5 sessions; structure is not yet broken.
What votes againstNightly
LowAnalyst moves6 price-target cuts in 90d90d · -1
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($872,905 across 2 sells) in 120d120d · -1
Signal
2 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.3%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.3% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
3.3%0.4× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.4× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 44.3% · tail cap 3.3% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 3.4% is the number (n=25,762). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 6.1% against a 8.7% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.44% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
Our track record10 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
21 logged
21 calls logged on this name, 10 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on ASNDTHIS NAME
21
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 10.
0610-K disclosed linksBIOTECHNOLOGY
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 1 connection.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-13.0% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
VRTXPeer$508.34-1.55%
REGNPeer$784.85-0.58%
ARGXPeer$990.32-0.55%
RVMDPeer$190.95-3.04%
CSLLYPeer$31.12-1.92%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 7 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 16, 2026
Initial jobless claimsLittle effect either way
Healthcare demand does not depend on hiring.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +2.0% · Rose on 91 of 169 report days
Across the last 169 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, ASND moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 2.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 11 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Little effect either wayPeople need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, ASND moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.9% · Two weeks later +1.5% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, ASND moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 1.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionLittle effect either way
Healthcare does not track the business cycle.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +1.1% · A week later +1.3% · Two weeks later +1.7% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, ASND moved +1.1% on average on the day and was 1.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 11 days.
PCE inflationLittle effect either wayPeople need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, ASND moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Little effect either way
People need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later +2.4% · Two weeks later +2.8% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, ASND moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 2.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
On the day +1.1% · A week later +1.3% · Two weeks later +1.7% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, ASND moved +1.1% on average on the day and was 1.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 6 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Little effect either wayLittle direct link.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +0.4% · Rose on 14 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, ASND moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections1 link · 1 confirmed
Direct connections · 1 edge
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
NVO · Competitorcompetitor+0.12%Confirmed · manual
1 of 1 edge is named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
Named competitors
NVOCompetitorcompetitor
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.