Antero Resources Corporation (AR) — Oil & Gas Exploration & Production. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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AR fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 3.26M · 3-mo avg 4.09M

Antero Resources Corporation (AR)

ARAntero Resources Corporationloading…
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QTick signal
+2net
2 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 5 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · Grey—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 6
$35.90
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 6
$36.94
near a resistance level and the 200-day average · midpoint $36.94 · Nov 6
±$2.69
±7.5% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 4% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
In line
82% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met)
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 4% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
Trading volume29% below normal0.71× its 20-day average
Past year's range$31.15 – $45.75lowest to highest price
From its peak25.1% belowpeak $48.20, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.26 to 1$0.26 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$32.74the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$36.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)39.3fires under 35 · fires near $34.67
Accounting warning signs2worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit7.9× next year8.1× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 27%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 13.5×
Cash it generates11.2%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 0.8%. Over the last 20 sessions, 43% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
39.3
fires under 35 · fires near $34.67
vs 50-day
✓
$37.55
below the line
Bollinger
●
$34.95
no lower pierce · fires near $34.62
VWAP 20
✓
$39.45
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$35.90
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-0.55
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.71×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
4.3%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.58
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-10
in 64 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file