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Markets / ACN
ACN
NYSE
neutralOPERATING CO.judged on execution & valuation

Accenture plc ·

$178.77
+0.52 (+0.29%)
Aug 11, 2026 · 11:51 AM ET
Mkt cap$113.88B
P/E · fwd14.3 · 12.2
Div yield3.65%
Beta 1y0.20
Volume1.95M0.23× avg
52-wk range -38.6%118291
The five reads
At a glance the decision-relevant reads, first
GLOBAL TAPE
No overseas listings — ACN trades on its home exchange only.
Track record · free & ungated
We grade our price-band calls in public

Each forward price band is logged the day it's set and scored when it resolves — misses included. 5 bands have resolved so far — not yet enough for a hit-rate that would mean anything, so none is shown. This builds in the open, not behind the paywall.

16
bands logged
5
resolved so far
Building
status
The calibration ledger stays free, always — a track record can't sit behind a paywall.

Price action

Price & quote

Live quote refreshed every 15 minutes against the full daily snapshot.

The readHolding bidfact

Where the price sits inside today's range and its 52-week range, plus how it's performed over time. This is the raw quote — the same number everywhere, just faster.

Death crossAscending channel50-day sits below the 200-day — bearish long-term structure.
105.9150.2194.5238.8283.1Ascending channelS · 174S · 170S · 167R · 181R · 184R · 188
Drag or arrow-key the chart for daily OHLCV · 126 sessions through Aug 10, 2026 · prev close $178.25 (dashed) · live $178.77 hollow — not yet a settled bar
Open
$176.83
Prev close
$178.25
Volume
1.95M
avg 8.65M
Rel. volume
0.23×
below normal
Market cap
$113.88B
Shares out
637.02M
float 612.79M
Day range
$175.55$180.20
52-week range
$118.15$291.09
-38.6% from high+51.3% above low

The QTick signal

QTick proprietary signal

A transparent point tally — bull evidence minus bear evidence — read over ~30 days. Faster factors time the swing; slower ones (quality, 13F, forensics) weigh in as longer-horizon context. A model-based prior, not advice.

~30-day swing read · graded vs S&Puncalibrated prior · track record buildingstrength is the tally magnitude, not a probability
Price-factor lean cohort-relative · momentum + low-vol
Price-factor lean — not shown at this market cap (these factors carry no validated edge above small-cap).
Where this is validated: survivorship-free factor study (micro/small caps only), |t|>3.2. Cohort-relative ranking, not a price forecast or buy/sell advice. Calibration tracked live.
+2
net · balanced
1 bull / 1 bear factors
Factor breakdown 8 factors · signed points sum to net +2
Analyst moves90d
Earnings4 quarters+3 pts
latest EPS beat by 2%
Insider flow120d
Estimate revisionsWeeks
Sentiment1–30d
Longer-horizon context weighs the read · not a 30-day timing call
Institutional (13F)Latest 13F
Quality / valueTTM
Filing forensicsLatest FY
filing forensics — an unquantified legal/regulatory contingency the company says it cannot estimate (demoted — settled NULL/wrong-signed, not scored (QTICK_FORMULA_AUDIT_2026_07.md))
Risk flagsDaily-1 pts
expensive valuation (bottom-quintile earnings yield)
Net tally
+2
3 bull − 1 bear
Factors agreeing
1↑ 1↓
of 9 tracked
Read strength
balanced
30d horizon
Strongest factor
Earnings
+3 pts
Model
QTick Engine
ACN track record
Building
5 of 16 resolved
Forensic flags filing red flags · backtested edge where shown
Revenue-timing languagerevenue-recognition timing language worth watching
Cannot-estimate contingencyan unquantified legal/regulatory contingency the company says it cannot estimate
Territory — competitor / supplier graph
8056.TPeer+1.3%
IBMCompetitor+1.0%
INFYCompetitor+1.0%
WITPeer-1.3%
FISPeer+1.2%

Where the reads agree

Cross-category read

A decorrelated view across the categories already scored elsewhere on this page — where they agree, where they conflict, and how lopsided the split is. Not a new signal, a different angle on ones that already exist.

Category reads n=4 categories voting
Eventleans up
Valueleans down
Trendleans down
Riskleans down n=4
1 lean up, 3 lean down — modal read: bear.
Where they conflict
Event leans up while Value leans down.
Event leans up while Trend leans down.
Event leans up while Risk leans down.
1 of 4 weighted reads lean the other way — minority weight share 48%.
Named patterns
Tape is deteriorating with risk flags lit.present descriptive — a pattern in the current reads, not a validated signal
Crowded ownership and street love at a rich valuation.partial descriptive — a pattern in the current reads, not a validated signal
Cheap, but low-quality and credit-stressed.partial descriptive — a pattern in the current reads, not a validated signal
High quality, solvent and trending.partial descriptive — a pattern in the current reads, not a validated signal
Trend, crowded short positioning and option fuel.partial descriptive — a pattern in the current reads, not a validated signal
Tape turning up while fundamentals/credit are still stressed.partial descriptive — a pattern in the current reads, not a validated signal
Trend that is heavily rate/macro-driven.partial descriptive — a pattern in the current reads, not a validated signal
In detail
A pattern, not a validated signal
This regroups categories the page already scores elsewhere into one cross-category view — it does not add a new tally. Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar.
+2 net
balanced
1 bull / 1 bear factors

Red-Flag X-Ray

Accounting quality · red-flag scan

One integrity score (0–100) from a set of accounting checks that look for red flags. Higher is safer — and we show the checks it passed, not just the ones it failed.

50
/ 100
Integrity score
D
0 critical · 2 watch · 0 clear of 2 scored tests
0 clear2 watch0 critical3 n/a
Test battery
!!
5 forensic tests · 0 passed clean · 2 flagged for watch
n/a
Bankruptcy distressn/a
Altman-Z not available
n/a
Earnings manipulationn/a
Beneish-M not available
n/a
Leveragen/a
Debt/equity not available
!Watch
Profitability qualityF 5/9
Piotroski F-score 5 of 9
!Watch
Filing forensics2 flag(s)
2 filing red flag(s) on the latest 10-K
How we test · 7 forensic testsA clear result ships as openly as a flag — and the tests that don't fire are published in full. No survivorship bias.
Share dilution / SBC creepFires when shares outstanding rise materially or stock-based comp outpaces buybacks.
Distress (Altman-Z, negative equity)Fires on balance-sheet fragility. For banks we substitute regulatory capital (CET1).
Margin trajectoryFires on multi-quarter gross / operating margin erosion.
Going-concern languageNLP scan of filings for material-doubt or going-concern wording.
Filing timelinessFires on late / NT (non-timely) filings and restatements.
Insider selling into strengthFires on discretionary insider sells during price strength; 10b5-1 plans down-weighted.
Analyst-downgrade momentumFires on clusters of net downgrades and target cuts.

Odds & pullback risk

Setup & odds

Which way the next move is more likely to go — and how overstretched the price looks right now.

The readSkews upsidewhere it sitsuncalibrated prior · not a forecast

How the likely upside compares with the downside, and how stretched the price is — odds, not timing.

Upside vs downside · 12m
Upside 50.4%49.3% Downside
No material skew · base rate 50/50
Historically, names tripping 1 validated red flag finished lower 12 months later in 49% of cases (n=12,544) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast. · n=12,544
Expected move · 1wk±—
Upside target$181.09 +1.3% · level, not a call
Invalidation / stop$173.98 -2.7% · level, not a call
Reward : risk0.5 : 1
BullClose above $181 opens continuation.
BaseChop between stop and target into the next catalyst.
BearA break of $174 invalidates the setup.
Pullback risk · experimental
LowElevatedHigh
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 83% of cases (n=5,447).
1.32×the segment norm — 83% saw a ≥10% pullback within 63dn=5,447 · observational
Resolved up vs down · 63d59% up · 41% down same historical group as the pullback read · 5,447 cases · flat outcomes count on neither side — a historical rate, not a call
Conditioned onneutral · high vol · pos momentum the past setups matched against this one
  • 1.32× the large unconditional rate
  • price is at the modeled bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met) — risk word capped at In line
  • tape state: neutral
  • price 1.5σ from its 20-day mean
In detail
How to read the odds
This is a historical rate, and an experimental one: across 25 years, stocks in the same state — same segment, same price phase, same volatility, same momentum — pulled back this often. The record is built from today's list of companies, so names that delisted along the way are missing and each stock's current segment is projected backward; the rates lean toward survivors until that rebuild lands. Compare the multiple against the segment rather than the bare percentage — recent years run higher than the full 25-year record. None of it predicts timing.
The structure under the price
Support band$169.55 – $177.36 -0.8% from spot · level, not a call
pivot low$175.39 basis
s1$173.98 basis
~68%of bands like this held 21 days after a touch — about the same as any comparable support level. Structure, not a prediction.n=40,800 · observational
Bottom confirmation3 of 6 signs in find-bottom score 40/100 — pinned to 0 until the checklist clears
Capitulation flush, then quietin
Selling volume dried upin
A higher low printedin
Back above the 20-day linenot yet
Momentum diverging upnot yet
Heaviest volume on an up daynot yet
85%of confirmed bottoming reads still saw a ≥10% drawdown inside the next quarter (25-year study) — confirmation marks a turn forming, not safety.n=1,203 · observational

Trend & technical structure

Trend & technicals

The price chart's vital signs, in plain English. Expand any row for what it actually means for you.

The readDowntrendwhere it sitsmoving-average posture · fact

Moving averages describe the direction; RSI and the bands describe how stretched the move is. Neither predicts the next one.

Average prices (the trend)
Price vs 200-day-13.0%
Momentum, bands & levels
In detail
The simple version
When price sits aboveits averages with momentum rising, the trend is healthy. When RSI is near the extremes or the price looks "stretched," the move is overdone and often takes a breather. Think of these as a weather report — conditions, not instructions.
Pattern outcomes · derived analysis

Do these patterns even work?

Derived · what patterns actually did

Every charting site detects the pattern. We publish what happened next — the forward win-rate and sample size at each horizon, including the famous patterns that historically meant nothing.

The readForward win-rates, with sample sizewhere it sits

How often each chart pattern was actually followed by a gain, and how many past cases that's based on — including famous ones that didn't work.

Each bar is the win-rate — how often the price was higher that many days after the pattern appeared. The line marks 50%, a coin flip: green beats it, red is worse than chance. Every bar is a platform-wide cohort base rateacross every stock that has shown this pattern (cohort record, not this ticker's own history alone).
Pattern10-day21-day63-day
UptrendBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate46.8%n=1,101,779
forward win-rate47.0%n=519,085
forward win-rate47.7%n=164,813
slope +0.23 over 40 bars
Cup and handleBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate46.0%n=676,679
forward win-rate46.5%n=317,821
forward win-rate46.9%n=101,501
U-base + small handle pullback
Snapshot as of 2026-08-11
In detail
Why we show you the losers
Famous reversal signals like a bullish engulfing have historically closed higher less than half the time at short horizons — below a coin flip. We publish the win-rate and the sample size on every cohort, so a 42-case base rate never masquerades as an 8,500-case one. Objective base rates, not forecasts.

Momentum & performance

Momentum / performance

Trailing returns and relative strength versus the benchmark.

The readLaggardwhere it sitsRS percentile vs market

How the stock has returned, and whether it's beating the market. A strong run shows recent leadership — leadership reverses without warning.

Trailing returns
1-month+28.7%
3-month+3.4%
6-month-24.7%
Year-to-date-31.4%
1-year-25.5%
12-1 momentum-42.9%
Relative strength vs S&P 500
47.4
RS-rank
percentile vs market
laggingleading
Relative strength line (β-adj)-5.09
In detail
What relative strength tells you
A rank of 47.4 means ACN has outpaced 47.4% of the market over the past year. That is what it has done, not a promise about what comes next — leadership can reverse without warning.

Risk profile

Risk

Volatility and sensitivity, regressed against SPY from adjusted bars — then the landmine check: what could actually go wrong here.

The readLow drawdown riskwhere it sitsvs the ADV-Q5 mega segment base rate · observational

Beta is how much it moves with the market; volatility and the worst drop show how rough the ride has been. Historical context, not a position-size rule.

13.9%6-month large-drawdown risk vs 9.3% for its segment
Low drawdown riskNames like this hit a large drawdown within 6 months at 1.5× the rate of the ADV-Q5 mega segment — observational, never a sell.
Beta · 1-year
0.20
less sensitive
Beta · 3-year
0.64
Realized vol · 30d
49.4%
annualized
Max drawdown · 1y
-56.5%
The drawdown read · 6-month, segment-graded
Where it sits1.5×
LowHigh
vs the ADV-Q5 mega segment base rate · observational
13.9%6-month large-drawdown risk, vs 9.3% for its segment
Max drawdown, trailing year-0.57 driver
Distance from 52-week high-0.38 driver
Parkinson range volatility0.36 driver
Log price (level)5.18 driver
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this ADV-Q5 mega segment: 9.3%. This name reads 1.5× that base rate.
Tape state & tail · nightly, adjusted bars
Neutral tape0/100
SettledKnifing
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
Buying pressure51 elevated
−15.6%a 1-in-200 day for this name — 1.8× what a normal curve expects · fat tail
Cannot-estimate contingencyflagged
In detail
Reading risk
A beta of 0.20 means that, historically, a 1% move in the S&P has come with a ~0.20% move here. Realized vol ran 49% and the largest drawdown observed in the trailing year was 57% — both are what happened, not a bound on what can. The drawdown band above is observational — a risk sort against names of the same segment, blind to balance-sheet failures that never showed in the price.

Failure modes

Coverage
Data not available — failure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far (this name routes as growth)
Macro sensitivity · derived analysis

How rates push this name

Derived · rates & regime

The 10-year yield is public. Its measured pull on this specific stock — and how it trades around the macro calendar — is the derived layer.

The readFalls with rateswhere it sitshow it moved when rates moved · extremes trimmed

How much this stock actually moves when interest rates move, and how it behaves around big economic releases.

Sensitivity to 10Y yield
Per +1% in the 10Y yield+1.4%
120+12
Rates are a Falls with rates for this name
Observations504 rolling window
Fit · r²n/a
Measured across 504 daily moves against the 10-year Treasury yield (FRED DGS10). Where the company-level link is weak or the sample is short, we fall back to the sector average rather than print a number we don't trust.
Behaviour around the macro calendar
CPI · vs a typical dayn=371.2×
FOMC · vs a typical dayn=380.9×
NFP · vs a typical dayn=390.7×
PCE · vs a typical dayn=381.1×
Latest print · 10-Year Treasury Yield (2026-08-07) read as a tailwind for this name. 10-Year Treasury Yield came in cooler than trend, based on how its sector typically reacts -> a tailwind for this name.
× = how much more this stock moves on each release day vs a normal day. Amber = outsized (≥1.4×). Context, not a directional call.
Volatility regime
The volatility engine runs on market-wide risk channels, not on individual names, so there is no 1-year volatility percentile for this symbol. The realized-volatility and drawdown reads in the risk section are the per-name measures.

Valuation

Valuation

Is the stock cheap or expensive? Each multiple is graded and explained in plain English.

The readLeans cheapwhere it sitsagainst its own 5-year range where we have it · standard bands otherwise

Price against earnings, sales, book value and cash flow. We mark the measures that don't apply rather than fake them.

What you pay for earnings
P/E (trailing)Price ÷ last 12 months of profit; graded vs own 5y history when covered14.3×Cheap
Forward P/EPrice ÷ next year's expected profit12.2×Cheap
PEG ratioValuation set against expected growth — lower can look cheaper, but one cutoff is not a verdict2.02Rich
Earnings yieldProfit as a % of price, like a bond yield7.00%Cheap
Earnings yield − risk-freeEarnings yield minus the government-bond yield at the same date+1.56%Spread
Dividend yieldAnnual indicated cash dividend as a % of price3.65%Income
What you pay for the business
Price / SalesPrice ÷ annual revenue; graded vs own 5y history when coveredn/an/a
Price / BookPrice ÷ net assets on the booksn/an/a
EV / EBITDAWhole-company value ÷ operating cash earningsn/an/a
EV / FCFWhole-company value ÷ positive free cash flown/an/a
Price / FCFPrice ÷ free cash flow generatedn/an/a
FCF yieldFree cash flow as a % of market valuen/an/a
P/E vs own 5yFive-year median 29.0×1th pctCheap
P/S vs own 5yFive-year median 3.2×1th pctn/a
EV/EBITDA and P/FCF need positive operating cash earnings to mean anything (and don't apply to banks, where leverage is the product) — so we mark them n/a rather than print a misleading number.
Peers today territory performance, for valuation context
8056.TPeer+1.3%
IBMCompetitor+1.0%
INFYCompetitor+1.0%
WITPeer-1.3%
FISPeer+1.2%

Fundamentals

The business
Data not available.

Inventory ledger

The stockroom
Data not available.

Segments & geography

Where the revenue lives
Data not available.

Credit & safety

Coverage
Data not available.
Dilution radar · derived analysis

Are your shares being diluted?

Derived · ownership erosion

Raw share count is everywhere. The consequence — how fast the count is growing and where that ranks against peers — is the read that matters.

The readwhere it sitsdilution percentile vs peers

How fast the share count is changing versus peers, with stock compensation, issuance and repurchases shown separately when covered.

5-year share-count CAGR
The CAGR needs annual filings roughly five years apart that both carry a share count. This name's filing history on file does not span that window, so no rate is published — the buyback and stock-comp rows below are measured independently and still hold.
Most-dilutive percentile vs peers
Peer percentilen/a not covered
Stock comp / revenue3.0% latest fiscal year
Stock comp / OCFoperating cash flown/a not covered
Gross buyback yield+4.01% TTM repurchases / market value
Net buyback yield+2.84% TTM repurchases minus issuance / market value
Diluted / basic share gap1.2% latest fiscal-year per-share overhang proxy
SBC trendflat up to five fiscal years
Shares outstanding · indexed 5y
Indexing needs an unbroken run of annual share counts across the same five-year window the CAGR uses. Where a year is missing — or the reported counts switch share class mid-series — the chart is withheld rather than drawn across the gap.

Analyst & estimates

The Street
Data not available.
Earnings bias · derived analysis

How this name behaves into the print

Earnings habit

The street's consensus-surprise habit — whether estimates run conservative or aggressive against what the company reports, not management's own guidance — the beat streak graded against names with the same profile, and what the tape does on good news.

The readSerial beaterwhere it sitsvalidated base rates · graded out-of-time

Whether the street sandbags this name, how often a beat streak like this persists (with its sample size), and what the tape does with good news.

80%of names with this beat profile beat againn=33,684 · observational
Consensus habit · trailing 8 quarters
Consensus-surprise habitnot management guidanceconsensus runs low for this name — it routinely clears the bar n=8
Trailing beat rate100% beat 7–8 of the last 8 · n=8
80%of names that beat 7–8 of the last 8 went on to beat again — 1.28× the segment average (cohort record since 2000, not this stock alone)n=33,684 · observational
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
What the tape does with it
54%of the time it beat the estimate but fell anywayn=24 · observational
8%of the time it missed the estimate but rose anywayn=24 · observational
Avg reaction on a beat-1.3% n=21
Avg reaction on a miss+2.9% n=3
Earnings-day move · typical±4.1% p90 ±8.9% · worst ±20.0% (2026-06-18) · n=24
Implied vs realized move insufficient options history
In detail
How to read the habit
This is a historical rate: among companies with the same recent beat record, that share beat again. It was checked on later periods than the ones it learned from, and against the plain long-run average. It describes the group, not this specific report.

Ownership & positioning

Ownership

Who holds it, how options lean, and the most recent insider, congressional and 13F transactions.

The readwhere it sitspositioning band · not a vote

Who owns it and what insiders and big funds are doing. Steady buying reads positive; heavy selling reads cautious.

Holders
Institutional85.1%
Insider0.0%
Institutional flow
Fund concentration
Activist stakeNone on file
Insider & short
Insider 90d net
10b5-1 vs discretionaryscheduledMostly programmatic
Short interest · %float6.1%
Short interest · 30d Δ
Options positioning
Put/call · OI
Put/call · volume
Implied movenext exp.±—
IV skew (25Δ)
In detail
Reading the positioning
Institutional flow data unavailable.
Recent transactions Form 4 + congressional
FilerSourceActionValueDate
Rep. Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.House · CongressBuy$1001-$1500016 Jun
Rep. Julie JohnsonHouse · CongressSell$1001-$1500012 May
Rep. Rick W. AllenHouse · CongressSell$15001-$5000008 May
Rep. Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.House · CongressSell$1001-$1500014 Apr
Rep. Jared MoskowitzHouse · CongressSell$1001-$1500023 Mar
13F filers · last quarter

Institutional flow

Coverage
Data not available.

Options

Options pressure
Data not available.

Gamma map

Coverage
Data not available.
From QTickOur track recordEvery call we've resolved, misses included →

Peers & supply chain

Territory · peers & supply chain

The names in this stock's orbit — how each is trading today, and how they wire together as suppliers, customers and competitors.

The readMoving with groupfact

How nearby companies are trading. Moving with them is a sector story; breaking away is specific to this stock.

TickerRelationshipTodayRelative move
ACNThis stock+0.29%
8056.TPeer+1.25%
IBMCompetitor+0.98%
INFYCompetitor+1.00%
WITPeer-1.26%
FISPeer+1.22%
In detail
Moving with the group
ACN is tracking the group (peer avg +0.64% today) — this is a sector move, not a single-name one.
Supply map how the territory wires together
ACN+0.29%the stock
partnercompetitorsupplier

Customer momentum

The customer chain
Data not available.

News & social

The story
Data not available.

What this name did from here

Time machine

Each look-back point: the price then, the move to today, and what was going on — earnings, corporate events, news flow.

The readLower than a year agofact

The price at each look-back point and the move to today, with what was happening at the time — the per-ticker face of the track record.

Look-backs · vs the $178.25 close of 2026-08-10
3 months ago$180.42 -1.2% to today
6 months ago$240.86 -26.0% to today
1 year ago$239.20 -25.5% to today
3 years ago$310.41 -42.6% to today
history starts 2023-06-01
In detail
Why we show the rear-view mirror
Every number on this page gets graded by what happens next. The time machine is the same idea pointed backwards: the state of this name at each past date and the move that followed, for any symbol — not a curated highlight reel.
Risk case · derived analysis

The risk case

The case against

What can break: how hard this name has fallen before, a sensible position cap, whether it behaves like a lottery ticket, how much cash it has left, how it drifts after earnings, whether the dividend holds, and what changed in the filings — plus a crowding read when its three inputs agree.

The readCoverage incompletewhere it sitsan experimental model estimate · the history-based reads below are graded separately

The case against the stock: how hard it has fallen before, how much cash it has left, how it behaves after earnings, whether the dividend holds, what changed in the filings, and how crowded the trade is.

Avoid score · v2.1 isotonic model · experimental
The nightly batch has not scored this name yet — the model needs universe-wide ranking features that are not computed on demand.
Terminal fate · the cohort's ledger
Of 1242 large names tracked 2016-2026, 0.2% were delisted for cause within 24 months and 3.0% were acquired — historical frequencies for the cohort, not a forecast for this name.
Cohortlarge 2016-2026
12m outcomesfor-cause 0.1% [0.0%–0.2%] acquired 1.6% [1.3%–1.8%] · still listed 98.0% · n=1321
24m outcomesfor-cause 0.2% [0.1%–0.4%] acquired 3.1% [2.5%–3.7%] · still listed 96.0% · n=1242
36m outcomesfor-cause 0.4% [0.1%–0.7%] acquired 4.5% [3.6%–5.4%] · still listed 94.0% · n=1182
In detail
Reading the fate ledger
Each row is what happened to every tracked name in this size cohort over that window — delisted for cause, acquired, or still listed — with the band around each rate. These are the cohort's historical frequencies, not probabilities for this name, and the acquisition arm is never an acquisition forecast.
Deep-drawdown recovery record
38.7%of large names 50% or more below their prior high reclaimed it within 3 years, counting the delisted as never-recovered — an upper bound, since still-open episodes are excludedn=790 · observational
Names this size that fell 50% took a median 394 trading days to reclaim their prior high — and only 38.7% did within 3 years once the delisted are counted (a survivor-only screen would claim 43.4%).
This name's drawdown-55.2% crossed the −50% bucket · vs the trailing 3y high
Survivor-only view43.4% the illusion gap is 4.6% — what dropping the delisted flatters the odds by
Median recovery394 trading days among the names that did recover
Max defensible position size
3.4%max defensible size 3.3% - tail bindsn=25,762 · observational
Segmentlarge routing cohort
Vol tercilemid realized vol bucket
Momentum signpos trailing return direction
Half-Kelly44.3% Kelly criterion / 2
Tail cap3.3% VaR / CVaR limit
Cat cap90.1% catastrophe-rate limit
Binding constrainttail
Lottery profile
No lottery signal — trailing-21d max daily return is within the normal range for its cohort (large).
Cash runway
No fundamentals row on file for this name.
Post-earnings drift · reaction vs sigma
Move already pricedz>4 after jumps this large, measured drift edge is zero
Move already priced: after jumps this large, measured drift edge is zero.
Latest earnings reaction-20.0% 2026-06-18
Daily sigma (21d)3.11% baseline volatility used for z-score
Reaction sizez>4 first-day move ÷ its normal daily move
Strength of evidence-0.06 Newey–West t — how consistent the pattern is, not how many cases
In detail
How post-earnings drift works
After an earnings reaction, how far price keeps drifting over the next 63 trading days depends on how big the first move was. A jump more than four times the stock's normal daily move usually spends the effect — the market has already repriced it. Milder reactions historically kept drifting, by about 3.2 percentage points in our sample.
Dividend reliability · evidence incomplete
Dividend yield3.49% profile value · percentage points
The calibration stores historical within-period yield-tercile cells but not the mapping for today's yield, so no cut or suspension probability is published.
Filing restatements
No material restatement on file in the trailing 2 years.

Calibration scorecard

Auditable track record

Every rating we publish is fingerprinted, tracked, and resolved in public. Here's how we've actually done.

16
calls logged
track record builds as calls resolve (5/8)
Resolved
5
resolved, below the publication threshold
Open calls
11
tracked, unresolved
ACN track record
building
published once resolved