Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

How we compute this

UGPpeers & supply-chain relationships

UGP fair-value estimate

UGP earnings history

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 11:10 AM ETVol 1.08M · 3-mo avg 3.59M

Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP)

UGPUltrapar Participações S.A.loading…
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QTick signal
+3net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on filePCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-18
Smart entry
$7.54
basis · s1 · as of 2026-09-17
Target exit
at new highs
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
Low
0.73× the norm · 58% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.34×
52-week range$3.60 – $7.63
Below high since 2015-45.2% · $13.84 high
Risk / reward
Plan stop$6.97
Max pain
RSI 1477.2 overbought
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple11.9× fwd · 11.8× trailing
P/E vs its own past40th pctile · 12.4× median
Free cash flow yield42.6% · of market value

Trading in line with its own normal, price down 0.1%. Over the last 20 sessions, 41% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
77.2
overbought
vs 50-day
$6.44
above the line · fires near $6.48
Bollinger
$6.10
no lower pierce · fires near $5.91
VWAP 20
$7.04
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $7.03
Entry level
$7.54
within 1% of model level
Put wall
not on file
MACD
Context
+0.01
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
1.34×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
0.6%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.22
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-11-11
in 38 sessions
Next dividend
5.02% yld
no ex-date on file