United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) — $104.08 −0.34%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

UPSpeers & supply-chain relationships

UPS fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 11, 2026 · 11:47 AM ETVol 2.41M · Avg 5.64M
UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc.$104.08-0.34%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

3 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+5net
3 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 5 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
3 of 6 aligned — closing in
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 1.2× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$103.91
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-12
Target exit zone
$108–110
center $109.03 · basis · round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-08-12
Implied move · 1 wk
±$3.96
3.8% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~83% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.3× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.43× · 2.41M vs 5.64M avg
52-week range$82.00 – $122.41
Below high since 2015-55.5% · $234.88 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.8
Plan stop$97.65
Max pain$104.00 options cluster
RSI 1441.8 fires under 35 · fires near $99.09
Forensic flags2 review
What-if price
$104.08
$96.55 · -7.2%-7.2%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+3.8% · $108.04+3.8%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
41.8
fires under 35 · fires near $99.09
vs 50-day
$109.18
below the line
Bollinger
$99.68
no lower pierce · fires near $98.53
VWAP 20
$109.32
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$103.91
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$100.00
OI strike below · fires near $100.46
MACD
-0.80
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.43×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
3.3%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$3.13
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
27 Oct 2026
· in 75 days
Next dividend
USD 1.64
ex-date 2026-08-17
prices 15-min delayed