United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) — Integrated Freight & Logistics. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

How we compute this

UPSpeers & supply-chain relationships

UPS fair-value estimate

UPS earnings history

Qtick
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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 10, 2026 · 1:45 PM ETVol 1.45M · 3-mo avg 4.81M

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)

UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc.loading…
loading…
QTick signal
+7net
4 bull / 0 bear factors · moderate
Bull 7 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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$110.41
near a support level · Nov 9
$116–118
near the 52-week high · midpoint $116.86 · Nov 9
±$4.80
±4.3% up or down, priced by the options market
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
In line
67% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.0× the usual rate
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
Trading volume57% below normal0.43× its 20-day average
Past year's range$90.84 – $122.41lowest to highest price
From its peak52.8% belowpeak $234.88, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.95 to 1$0.95 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$104.36the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$105.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)65.4fires under 35 · fires near $91.18
Accounting warning signs2worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit13.7× next year21.3× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 91%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 15.5×
Cash it generates5.1%of its market value, per year

Trading lighter than its own normal, price down 0.2%. Over the last 20 sessions, 42% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
65.4
fires under 35 · fires near $91.18
vs 50-day
●
$99.94
above the line · fires near $100.64
Bollinger
●
$92.17
no lower pierce · fires near $90.10
VWAP 20
●
$104.38
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $104.28
Entry level
✓
$110.41
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$110.00
2026-11-13 expiry · chain of 2026-11-10
MACD
Context✓
+0.59
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.43×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
3.5%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$3.02
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-01-26
in 51 sessions
Next dividend
USD 1.64
ex-date 2026-11-16
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