ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) — Integrated Freight & Logistics. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Qtick
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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 3:57 PM ETVol 2.87M · 3-mo avg 2.10M

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)

ZTOZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+2net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 5 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · Grey—PCE inflation days · not on fileRiskFalling knife · 88/100 · was 94 on Sep 21 · as of 2026-09-252/6Bottom watch · 2 of 6 confirmations
Smart entry
$19.39
basis · s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$21.70
center $21.70 · basis · bb upper + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$0.96
4.9% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.01× the norm · 67% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: falling knife
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.97×
52-week range$18.11 – $26.20
Below high since 2016-51.1% · $39.84 high
Risk / reward2.06 : 1
Plan stop$18.42
Max pain$20.00 options cluster
RSI 1432.4 washed out
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple8.7× fwd · 10.2× trailing
P/E vs its own past0th pctile · 15.1× median
Free cash flow yield40.2% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 0.1%. Over the last 20 sessions, 65% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

5 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
✓
32.4
washed out
vs 50-day
✓
$22.12
below the line
Bollinger
●
$19.30
no lower pierce · fires near $19.23
VWAP 20
✓
$20.25
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$19.39
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$21.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-24
MACD
Context●
-0.05
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.97×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
3.3%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.49
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-18
in 38 sessions
Next dividend
3.54% yld
no ex-date on file
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