Twilio Inc. (TWLO) — Cloud & Infrastructure Software. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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TWLO fair-value estimate

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Qtick
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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 4.26M · 3-mo avg 2.07M

Twilio Inc. (TWLO)

TWLOTwilio Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+5net
3 bull / 2 bear factors · leaning
Bull 7 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeOKPCE inflation days · ~15% smaller swingsCautionOverheated · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-24
Smart entry
$295.05
basis · s1 · as of 2026-09-24 · price is 6.5% inside the zone below it
Target exit zone
$301–308
center $304.75 · basis · daily pivot + high 52w · as of 2026-09-24
Implied move · 1 wk
±$31.99
11.6% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.22× the norm · 81% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: too hot · capped: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.79×
52-week range$98.44 – $275.80
Below high since 2016-32.2% · $442.06 high
Risk / reward0.31 : 1
Plan stop$263.59
Max pain$240.00 options cluster
RSI 1477.2 overbought
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple38.2× fwd · 35.8× trailing
P/E vs its own past0th pctile · 332.2× median
Free cash flow yield2.4% · of market value

Last session traded heavier than its own normal. Over the last 20 sessions, 42% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
77.2
overbought
vs 50-day
●
$224.55
above the line · fires near $225.74
Bollinger
●
$202.26
no lower pierce · fires near $196.70
VWAP 20
●
$247.88
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $247.76
Entry level
✓
$295.05
below the model level
Put wall
●
$230.00
2026-09-25 expiry · chain of 2026-09-23
MACD
Context✓
+1.65
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
1.79×
heavier than its own normal
Short int.Static
2.9%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$13.72
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-29
in 25 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file