Twilio Inc. (TWLO) — Cloud & Infrastructure Software. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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TWLO fair-value estimate

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Qtick
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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 9, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 1.54M · 3-mo avg 3.09M

Twilio Inc. (TWLO)

TWLOTwilio Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+2net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 6 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
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$205.61
near a recent low, a support level and the 200-day average · Nov 9
$304–312
near the 52-week high · midpoint $308.40 · Nov 9
±$21.28
±10.3% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 19% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
In line
82% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 19% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
Trading volume45% below normal0.55× its 20-day average
Past year's range$105.00 – $308.40lowest to highest price
From its peak53.3% belowpeak $442.06, highest since 2016
Gain vs. risk2.65 to 1$2.65 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$168.23the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$215.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)34.5washed out
Accounting warning signs2worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit30.1× next year26.0× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 1%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 330.4×
Cash it generates3.0%of its market value, per year

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price up 2.3%. Over the last 20 sessions, 59% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

4 of 5 aligned — STRIKE
RSI 14
✓
34.5
washed out
vs 50-day
✓
$253.92
below the line
Bollinger
●
$187.73
no lower pierce · fires near $182.30
VWAP 20
✓
$234.68
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$205.61
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-5.36
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.55×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
4.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$16.17
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
Next earnings
2027-02-11
in 64 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file