Deep dive · NYSE: TBBB
BBB Foods Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on BBB Foods Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Trend and Event are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at +2 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.30, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
analyst moves, sentiment vote up. 2 of 4 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
earnings, insider flow vote down. 2 of 4 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Trend against Event.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are long gamma, so their hedging absorbs moves rather than amplifying them; separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −8.0%; and the binding position cap is 3.2% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean+0.88%
MéxicoTBBBN+1.75%⏱ZurichTBBB0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 2 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Wall Street rating
Buy
+1% to the average target
85% buy · 15% hold · 0% sell
median target $54
median target $54
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $46.78 · +14.5%
200-day $39.16 · +36.8%
200-day $39.16 · +36.8%
Earnings
In 52 days
18 Nov 2026 · options imply ±4.9%
beat ≤2 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
Valuation
-2,076.6× forward
Against consensus earnings
5yr median 213×
FCF yield 17.16%
FCF yield 17.16%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
3 on watch
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 0.47 · vol 24% ann.
worst drawdown -19%
worst drawdown -19%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does94 chars
BBB Foods Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates a chain of grocery retail stores in Mexico.
NYSE · USDDiscount Stores
$53.56+0.54 · +1.02%CLOSED · vol 1.05M
52-week range↑ 125% off low · ↓ 0.8% off high
$23.81now $53.56$54.00
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Jun 22, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 2.0 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
1.96GREY ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJun 22, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
5.7σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.21%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 4/9
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills0.62×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital3.39
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$12.59B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
61st pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
70 / 100
0 critical · 3 watch · 2 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 1.96Altman-Z in the Grey · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -3.32M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.03long-term debt 0.03× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/9Piotroski F-score 4 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 3 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026POOR · 30/100
Business quality
-4% net margin, -69% return on equity, +36% revenue growth, and capital earning -3% against a 8% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
30 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
-3.6%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
16.2%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
-0.9%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-68.8%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-11.7pp
Earns -3% on invested capital that costs about 8%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
-7.1%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+10.0%
3 months+29.0%
6 months+56.2%
Year to date+55.8%
1 year+101.4%
Revenue growth (YoY)FAST
+36.1%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-100.0%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+94.3%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 10%
90 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsMay 6, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
39%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT ≤2 OF THE LAST 8
2 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Beat and still fellSHARE OF ALL PRINTS
13%
Of every report in the window, this share both beat consensus and closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
67%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±5.4%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,132,432
21d47%-0.1%531,932
63d48%-0.7%170,248
slope +0.24 over 40 bars
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,216,877
21d51%+0.1%572,733
63d52%+0.3%181,607
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%975,500
21d52%+0.2%458,215
63d54%+0.5%144,909
three peaks ≈ equal
Ascending triangle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%646,584
21d51%+0.1%303,544
63d53%+0.5%96,103
flat resistance, rising support
Cup and handle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.2%701,064
21d47%-0.4%328,275
63d47%-1.4%104,377
U-base + small handle pullback
52w breakout · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%195,888
21d46%0.0%91,765
63d52%+0.2%28,677
at/near 52-week high
Range breakout · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d45%-0.4%80,398
21d46%-0.6%37,836
63d47%-0.9%12,077
breaks 20-day high on heavy volume
03-2,076.6× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $53.56, -2,076.6× forward earnings, RSI 68, and dealers long gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2003 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $46.78 · 200-day $39.16. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Up 1.02% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)WARM
68
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±2.9%
$1.57
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.02
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position100% OF RANGE
Upper band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$51.05
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$49.29
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
18 Nov 2026 · in 52 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 19 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Low0.73× segment rate · n=16,681
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 58% of cases (n=16,681).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
2.1σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$52 – $531 support
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $52.42.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-107.88
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/EAnalysts expect a loss over the next twelve months, so there are no earnings for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful5yr median 213×
Trailing P/EThe company lost money over the trailing year, so there are no earnings for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.1×5yr median 1.0×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.6×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay18.8×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off17.2×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value17.16%
1 of the 5 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. 2 are marked not meaningful because the figure they divide into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of S1
$53.21In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetDaily pivot + 52-week high
$54.00$54–$54
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
StopChandelier
$49.29risk $3.92/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.20:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-12.7%
short-term trend line · $46.78
To the 200-day
-26.9%
primary trend line · $39.16
To the put wall
-6.6%
heaviest put open interest · $50.00
To the call wall
+2.7%
heaviest call open interest · $55.00
To the composer's target
+0.8%
Daily pivot + 52-week high · set Sep 25, 2026 · $54.00
To the composer's stop
-8.0%
Chandelier · set Sep 25, 2026 · $49.29
To the 52-week high
+0.8%
highest print of the past year · $54.00
To the 52-week low
-55.5%
lowest print of the past year · $23.81
Options-implied week ±4.9%
$50.93 – $56.19
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$51.99 – $55.13
±$1.57 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $53.21 · stop $49.29 · target $54.00, a 0.20:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk, target inside one week's move.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 27, 2026
Signal
Long gamma — moves get absorbed.
Dealers hedge against the move, which damps volatility around the current strikes. It makes the tape quieter without saying anything about which way it goes.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-10-16 · Chain · Sep 27, 2026
Max pain-6.7%
$50.00
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.74
58% calls
42% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.01
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $2.63
±4.9%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$50.00PUT840
$55.00CALL587
$50.00CALL554
$60.00CALL22
$45.00PUT22
$45.00CALL15
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-10-16CallsPutsMax pain $50.00
22
$60.00
0587
$55.00
4554
$50.00
84015
$45.00
220
$40.00
1
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$54.00+0.8%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$55.00+2.7%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$50.00-6.6%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$46.78-12.7%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$50.00-6.6%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 109%, short interest is 5.10% of float, and 7 analysts average $54.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+2BALANCED · 30d
2 bull / 2 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
+3
1 analyst upgrade in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-1
4 of the prior 4 quarters missed
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($27,207,154 across 6 sells) in 120d
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (96/100)
Signal
2 bull / 2 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 4 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 26, 2026
Signal
The evidence families are split down the middle.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.30 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street7 covering firms
Consensus rating7 ANALYSTS
Buy
85% buy · 15% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 7 covering firms.
Median price target+1%
$54
$38now $54$64
A $38–$64 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$-0.63
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
JP Morgan$67↑53/100
UBS$58↑52/100
UBS$51↑52/100
Citigroup$49↑53/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
109.4%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
2.4%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
5.10%
Falling — shares short changed -9.7% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float80% OF SHARES
62.72M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)76th PCTILE
$35.76M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Khouri Sami Gabriel · DirectorGiftnot on file—14 Sep
Reich Sapire Rose Nicole Dominique · DirectorSell$388,773—09 Sep
Reich Sapire Rose Nicole Dominique · DirectorSell$384,962—02 Sep
Hatoum Kamal Anthony · Director, Chairman & CEOConversionnot on file—07 Aug
Hatoum Kamal Anthony · Director, Chairman & CEOConversionnot on file—07 Aug
Khouri Sami Gabriel · DirectorConversionnot on file—07 Aug
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
+1.02%
TBBB rose +1.02% since the last close — no identified catalyst in our coverage.
News tone · 7-day—
96 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 46 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
22h ago(TBBB) as a Liquidity Pulse for Institutional Tactics - news.stocktradersdaily.comnews.stocktradersdaily.comnot scored
MonBBB Foods (NYSE:TBBB) Sets New 12-Month High - Should You Buy? - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
SunDid Store Expansion Just Shift BBB Foods (TBBB) Investment Narrative? - simplywall.stsimplywall.stnot scored
Sep 18BBB Foods (TBBB) Could Be 2% Undervalued Following Strong Q2 Growth - simplywall.stsimplywall.stnot scored
Sep 18BBB Foods Inc. (NYSE:TBBB) Receives Consensus Recommendation of "Moderate Buy" from Analysts - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
Sep 18BBB Foods Q2FY26 Results: Revenue up 39%, adjusted EBITDA rises 44% - scanx.tradescanx.tradenot scored
Sep 18Transcript: BBB Foods Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call - BenzingaBenzinganot scored
Sep 18TBBB Sep 2026 35.000 call (TBBB260918C00035000) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Finance UKYahoo Finance UKnot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0511 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.47, 24% annual volatility, a -19% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−8.0%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−14.6%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.5×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.5×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-18.7%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.47
The market explains about 1.8% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
24%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure2
Buying pressure41
Overheat29
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
LowEarnings4 of the prior 4 quarters missed4 quarters · -1
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($27,207,154 across 6 sells) in 120d120d · -1
Signal
2 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
0.8%0.1× its cohort · heavily-traded large-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this heavily-traded large-caps segment: 8.0%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 55.0% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 3.2% is the number (n=140,733). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 2.7% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.44% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
25 logged
25 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on TBBBTHIS NAME
25
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksDISCOUNT STORES
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 2 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+6.3% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
WMTPeer$107.98+0.36%
COSTPeer$922.76+2.93%
TGTPeer$157.45+0.83%
DLMAFPeer$129.05+1.30%
DLMAYPeer$12.850.00%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2024-02-09
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 22, 2026
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
Grocery and household goods are part of the same total.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +3.2% · Two weeks later +3.0% · Rose on 16 of 30 report days
Across the last 30 Retail sales reports since Mar 17, 2024, TBBB moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 3.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsLittle effect either way
Grocery and household spending barely changes with the job market.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +1.3% · Two weeks later +2.1% · Rose on 70 of 133 report days
Across the last 133 Initial jobless claims reports since Feb 22, 2024, TBBB moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 2.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Little effect either wayFood and household brands pass higher costs on to shoppers over time; little reaction on the day.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later -0.1% · Two weeks later 0.0% · Rose on 14 of 31 report days
Across the last 31 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Feb 28, 2024, TBBB moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 0.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionLittle effect either way
Everyday essentials sell either way.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day -0.5% · A week later -1.3% · Two weeks later +0.5% · Rose on 11 of 31 report days
Across the last 31 FOMC decision reports since Mar 2, 2024, TBBB moved -0.5% on average on the day and was 0.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
On the day +0.8% · A week later +1.7% · Two weeks later +0.7% · Rose on 22 of 31 report days
Across the last 31 Housing starts reports since Feb 20, 2024, TBBB moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 0.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Little effect either wayGrocery and household spending barely changes with the job market.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +3.1% · Rose on 17 of 31 report days
Across the last 31 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Mar 6, 2024, TBBB moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 3.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationLittle effect either wayFood and household brands pass higher costs on to shoppers over time; little reaction on the day.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later -0.1% · Two weeks later 0.0% · Rose on 14 of 31 report days
Across the last 31 PCE inflation reports since Feb 28, 2024, TBBB moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 0.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 12 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Little effect either wayLittle direct link.
Typical for the Consumer Defensive sector
On the day -0.9% · A week later -1.3% · Two weeks later -2.4% · Rose on 10 of 30 report days
Across the last 30 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Feb 26, 2024, TBBB moved -0.9% on average on the day and was 2.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections2 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 2 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
LVMH · Partnerpartnernot pricedRumored · manual
NORDSTROM · Partnerpartnernot pricedRumored · manual
0 of 2 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
Who depends on it
LVMHPartnerpartner
NORDSTROMPartnerpartner
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.