The five reads
At a glance the decision-relevant reads, first
GLOBAL TAPE
Overseas lean+1.72%
FrankfurtTKDA+4.32%⏱
MéxicoTAKN0.00%⏱
London0A87+0.83%⏱
Track record · free & ungated
We grade our price-band calls in public
Each forward price band is logged the day it's set and scored when it resolves — misses included. 5 bands have resolved so far — not yet enough for a hit-rate that would mean anything, so none is shown. This builds in the open, not behind the paywall.
12
bands logged
5
resolved so far
Building
status
The calibration ledger stays free, always — a track record can't sit behind a paywall.
Price action
Price & quote
Live quote refreshed every 15 minutes against the full daily snapshot.
The readHolding bidfact
Where the price sits inside today's range and its 52-week range, plus how it's performed over time. This is the raw quote — the same number everywhere, just faster.
◆ Death cross forming◇ Ascending channel50- and 200-day averages are converging — watch for a regime flip.
Drag or arrow-key the chart for daily OHLCV · 126 sessions through Aug 10, 2026 · prev close $17.45 (dashed)
Open●
$17.48
Prev close●
$17.45
Volume●
4.17M
avg 3.49M
Rel. volume◐
1.20×
above normal
Market cap●
$56.05B
Shares out●
3.16B
float 1.58B
Day range
52-week range ◐
The QTick signal
QTick proprietary signal
A transparent point tally — bull evidence minus bear evidence — read over ~30 days. Faster factors time the swing; slower ones (quality, 13F, forensics) weigh in as longer-horizon context. A model-based prior, not advice.
~30-day swing read · graded vs S&Puncalibrated prior · track record buildingstrength is the tally magnitude, not a probability
Price-factor lean cohort-relative · momentum + low-vol
Price-factor lean — not shown at this market cap (these factors carry no validated edge above small-cap).
Where this is validated: survivorship-free factor study (micro/small caps only), |t|>3.2. Cohort-relative ranking, not a price forecast or buy/sell advice. Calibration tracked live.
-2
net · balanced
0 bull / 1 bear factors
Factor breakdown 8 factors · signed points sum to net -2●
Analyst moves90d—
Earnings4 quarters—
Insider flow120d—
Estimate revisionsWeeks—
Sentiment1–30d—
Longer-horizon context weighs the read · not a 30-day timing call
Institutional (13F)Latest 13F—
1 institutional holder(s) added/opened last quarter (demoted — validated negative IC, not scored (QUANT_SIGNAL.md))
Quality / valueTTM-2 pts
weak Piotroski F-score (3/9)
Filing forensicsLatest FY—
filing forensics — an unquantified legal/regulatory contingency the company says it cannot estimate (demoted — settled NULL/wrong-signed, not scored (QTICK_FORMULA_AUDIT_2026_07.md))
Risk flagsDaily—
Net tally
-2
2 bull − 4 bear
Factors agreeing
0↑ 1↓
of 9 tracked
Read strength
balanced
30d horizon
Strongest factor
Quality / value
-2 pts
Model
QTick Engine
TAK track record
Building
5 of 12 resolved
Forensic flags filing red flags · backtested edge where shown●
Revenue-timing languagerevenue-recognition timing language worth watching
Cannot-estimate contingencyan unquantified legal/regulatory contingency the company says it cannot estimate
Territory — competitor / supplier graph ●
JHPCYPeer0.0%
GDERFPeer+3.9%
GALDYPeer-3.7%
TKPHFPeer0.0%
TEVJFPeer0.0%
-2 net
balanced
0 bull / 1 bear factors
Red-Flag X-Ray
Accounting quality · red-flag scan
One integrity score (0–100) from a set of accounting checks that look for red flags. Higher is safer — and we show the checks it passed, not just the ones it failed.
50
/ 100
Integrity score
D
2 critical · 1 watch · 2 clear of 5 scored tests
2 clear1 watch2 critical
✕Critical
Bankruptcy distressZ 0.38●
Altman-Z in the Distress
✓Clear
Earnings manipulationM -2.59●
Likely clean
✓Clear
LeverageD/E 0.59●
debt-to-equity 0.59×
✕Critical
Profitability qualityF 3/9●
Piotroski F-score 3 of 9
!Watch
Filing forensics2 flag(s)●
2 filing red flag(s) on the latest 10-K
How we test · 7 forensic testsA clear result ships as openly as a flag — and the tests that don't fire are published in full. No survivorship bias.
Share dilution / SBC creepFires when shares outstanding rise materially or stock-based comp outpaces buybacks.
Distress (Altman-Z, negative equity)Fires on balance-sheet fragility. For banks we substitute regulatory capital (CET1).
Margin trajectoryFires on multi-quarter gross / operating margin erosion.
Going-concern languageNLP scan of filings for material-doubt or going-concern wording.
Filing timelinessFires on late / NT (non-timely) filings and restatements.
Insider selling into strengthFires on discretionary insider sells during price strength; 10b5-1 plans down-weighted.
Analyst-downgrade momentumFires on clusters of net downgrades and target cuts.
Odds & pullback risk
Setup & odds
Which way the next move is more likely to go — and how overstretched the price looks right now.
The read—where it sitsuncalibrated prior · not a forecast
How the likely upside compares with the downside, and how stretched the price is — odds, not timing.
Upside vs downside · 12m ◐
Expected move · 1wk◐±—
Upside target◐$17.63 +0.5% · level, not a call
Invalidation / stop◐$17.44 -0.6% · level, not a call
Reward : risk◐0.7 : 1
BullClose above $18 opens continuation.
BaseChop between stop and target into the next catalyst.
BearA break of $17 invalidates the setup.
Pullback risk · experimental ◐
LowElevatedHigh
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 64% of cases (n=7,012).
1.02×the segment norm — 64% saw a ≥10% pullback within 63dn=7,012 · observational
Resolved up vs down · 63d◐58% up · 42% down same historical group as the pullback read · 7,012 cases · flat outcomes count on neither side — a historical rate, not a call
Conditioned on◐neutral · mid vol · pos momentum the past setups matched against this one
- 1.02× the large unconditional rate
- tape state: neutral
- price 1.3σ from its 20-day mean
In detail
How to read the odds
This is a historical rate, and an experimental one: across 25 years, stocks in the same state — same segment, same price phase, same volatility, same momentum — pulled back this often. The record is built from today's list of companies, so names that delisted along the way are missing and each stock's current segment is projected backward; the rates lean toward survivors until that rebuild lands. Compare the multiple against the segment rather than the bare percentage — recent years run higher than the full 25-year record. None of it predicts timing.
The structure under the price ●
Support band●$17.24 – $17.46 -0.5% from spot · level, not a call
pivot low●$17.51 basis
s1●$17.44 basis
~68%of bands like this held 21 days after a touch — about the same as any comparable support level. Structure, not a prediction.n=40,800 · observational
Bottom confirmation●2 of 6 signs in find-bottom score 15/100 — pinned to 0 until the checklist clears
Capitulation flush, then quiet●not yet
Selling volume dried up●not yet
A higher low printed●not yet
Back above the 20-day line●in
Momentum diverging up●in
Heaviest volume on an up day●not yet
85%of confirmed bottoming reads still saw a ≥10% drawdown inside the next quarter (25-year study) — confirmation marks a turn forming, not safety.n=1,203 · observational
Trend & technical structure
Trend & technicals
The price chart's vital signs, in plain English. Expand any row for what it actually means for you.
The readUptrend intactwhere it sitsmoving-average posture · fact
Moving averages describe the direction; RSI and the bands describe how stretched the move is. Neither predicts the next one.
Average prices (the trend)
Price vs 200-day●+7.2%
Momentum, bands & levels
In detail
The simple version
When price sits aboveits averages with momentum rising, the trend is healthy. When RSI is near the extremes or the price looks "stretched," the move is overdone and often takes a breather. Think of these as a weather report — conditions, not instructions.
Do these patterns even work?
Derived · what patterns actually did
Every charting site detects the pattern. We publish what happened next — the forward win-rate and sample size at each horizon, including the famous patterns that historically meant nothing.
The readForward win-rates, with sample sizewhere it sits
How often each chart pattern was actually followed by a gain, and how many past cases that's based on — including famous ones that didn't work.
Each bar is the win-rate — how often the price was higher that many days after the pattern appeared. The line marks 50%, a coin flip: green beats it, red is worse than chance. Every bar is a platform-wide cohort base rateacross every stock that has shown this pattern (cohort record, not this ticker's own history alone).
Pattern10-day21-day63-day
UptrendBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate46.8%n=1,101,779
forward win-rate47.0%n=519,085
forward win-rate47.7%n=164,813
slope +0.12 over 40 bars
Tweezer topBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate45.9%n=314,931
forward win-rate47.2%n=148,254
forward win-rate49.6%n=47,032
matching highs
Double bottomBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate48.8%n=1,212,298
forward win-rate49.7%n=568,670
forward win-rate51.3%n=180,342
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple bottomBarely beats chance
forward win-rate48.8%n=935,884
forward win-rate50.1%n=438,722
forward win-rate52.1%n=139,063
three troughs ≈ equal
Near resistanceBarely beats chance
forward win-rate50.9%n=513,927
forward win-rate52.0%n=240,614
forward win-rate54.0%n=76,087
testing recent resistance
Golden crossBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate46.1%n=9,635
forward win-rate46.8%n=4,541
forward win-rate46.2%n=1,435
SMA50 crossed above SMA200
Snapshot as of 2026-08-11
In detail
Why we show you the losers
Famous reversal signals like a bullish engulfing have historically closed higher less than half the time at short horizons — below a coin flip. We publish the win-rate and the sample size on every cohort, so a 42-case base rate never masquerades as an 8,500-case one. Objective base rates, not forecasts.
Momentum & performance
Momentum / performance
Trailing returns and relative strength versus the benchmark.
The readIn linewhere it sitsRS percentile vs market
How the stock has returned, and whether it's beating the market. A strong run shows recent leadership — leadership reverses without warning.
Trailing returns
Relative strength vs S&P 500
65.6
RS-rank
percentile vs market
percentile vs market
Relative strength line (β-adj)◐+1.55
In detail
What relative strength tells you
A rank of 65.6 means TAK has outpaced 65.6% of the market over the past year. That is what it has done, not a promise about what comes next — leadership can reverse without warning.
Risk profile
Risk
Volatility and sensitivity, regressed against SPY from adjusted bars — then the landmine check: what could actually go wrong here.
The readLow drawdown riskwhere it sitsvs the ADV-Q5 mega segment base rate · observational
Beta is how much it moves with the market; volatility and the worst drop show how rough the ride has been. Historical context, not a position-size rule.
0.0%6-month large-drawdown risk vs 9.3% for its segment
Beta · 1-year◐
0.20
less sensitive
Beta · 3-year◐
0.23
Realized vol · 30d◐
24.0%
annualized
Max drawdown · 1y●
-20.1%
The drawdown read · 6-month, segment-graded
Where it sits0.0×
LowHigh
vs the ADV-Q5 mega segment base rate · observational
0.0%6-month large-drawdown risk, vs 9.3% for its segment
Max drawdown, trailing year●-0.20 driver
Distance from 52-week high●-0.07 driver
Parkinson range volatility●0.13 driver
Log price (level)●2.87 driver
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this ADV-Q5 mega segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.0× that base rate.
Tape state & tail · nightly, adjusted bars
Neutral tape0/100
SettledKnifing
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
Buying pressure●51 elevated
−6.0%a 1-in-200 day for this name — 1.4× what a normal curve expects
Cannot-estimate contingency●flagged
In detail
Reading risk
A beta of 0.20 means that, historically, a 1% move in the S&P has come with a ~0.20% move here. Realized vol ran 24% and the largest drawdown observed in the trailing year was 20% — both are what happened, not a bound on what can. The drawdown band above is observational — a risk sort against names of the same segment, blind to balance-sheet failures that never showed in the price.
Failure modes
Coverage
Data not available — failure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far (this name routes as growth)
How rates push this name
Derived · rates & regime
The 10-year yield is public. Its measured pull on this specific stock — and how it trades around the macro calendar — is the derived layer.
The readFalls with rateswhere it sitshow it moved when rates moved · extremes trimmed
How much this stock actually moves when interest rates move, and how it behaves around big economic releases.
Sensitivity to 10Y yield ●
Rates are a Falls with rates for this name
Observations●504 rolling window
Fit · r²●n/a
Measured across 504 daily moves against the 10-year Treasury yield (FRED DGS10). Where the company-level link is weak or the sample is short, we fall back to the sector average rather than print a number we don't trust.
Behaviour around the macro calendar ●
Latest print · 10-Year Treasury Yield (2026-08-07) read as a tailwind for this name. 10-Year Treasury Yield came in cooler than trend -> yields likely ease -> this rate-sensitive name gets a tailwind.
× = how much more this stock moves on each release day vs a normal day. Amber = outsized (≥1.4×). Context, not a directional call.
Volatility regime ◔
The volatility engine runs on market-wide risk channels, not on individual names, so there is no 1-year volatility percentile for this symbol. The realized-volatility and drawdown reads in the risk section are the per-name measures.
Valuation
Valuation
Is the stock cheap or expensive? Each multiple is graded and explained in plain English.
The readLeans cheapwhere it sitsagainst its own 5-year range where we have it · standard bands otherwise
Price against earnings, sales, book value and cash flow. We mark the measures that don't apply rather than fake them.
What you pay for earnings
P/E (trailing)●Price ÷ last 12 months of profit; graded vs own 5y history when coveredn/an/a
Forward P/E●Price ÷ next year's expected profit33.1×Rich
PEG ratio◐Valuation set against expected growth — lower can look cheaper, but one cutoff is not a verdictn/an/a
Earnings yield◔Profit as a % of price, like a bond yield—n/a
Earnings yield − risk-free●Earnings yield minus the government-bond yield at the same date-2.15%Spread
Dividend yield●Annual indicated cash dividend as a % of price3.53%Income
What you pay for the business
Price / Sales●Price ÷ annual revenue; graded vs own 5y history when covered0.0×Rich
Price / Book◔Price ÷ net assets on the books0.01×Cheap
EV / EBITDA◔Whole-company value ÷ operating cash earnings6.0×Cheap
EV / FCF◔Whole-company value ÷ positive free cash flow6.9×Cheap
Price / FCF◔Price ÷ free cash flow generated0.1×Cheap
FCF yield◔Free cash flow as a % of market value1,118.32%Cheap
P/E vs own 5y●Five-year median 32.8×n/an/a
P/S vs own 5y●Five-year median 1.6×95th pctRich
Peers today territory performance, for valuation context
JHPCYPeer0.0%
GDERFPeer+3.9%
GALDYPeer-3.7%
TKPHFPeer0.0%
TEVJFPeer0.0%
Fundamentals & quality
Fundamentals / quality
How good is the underlying business? Scale, profitability and balance-sheet strength, graded.
The readReturns below capital costwhere it sitsreturn on capital vs its estimated cost of funding
Scale, profitability and balance sheet, with industrial return on capital compared directly with its estimated funding cost.
Scale & growth
Revenue · TTM◔Total sales over the last 12 months—Scale
EPS · TTM◔Profit earned per share—Profit
Net margin◔Cents of profit kept per $1 of sales-3.4%Weak
Revenue growth◔Sales vs a year ago-1.7%Weak
EPS growth◔Profit-per-share vs a year ago—n/a
Margin trajectory◔Are profit margins widening or shrinking?n/an/a
Returns & balance sheet
ROE◔Profit generated on shareholders' equity-2.1%Weak
ROIC●After-tax operating profit earned on the capital the business uses2.5%Weak
WACC●Estimated blended cost of debt and equity2.7%Hurdle
ROIC − WACC●Return on capital above or below its funding cost-0.3%Weak
Incremental ROIC · ~3y●What the last three years of new investment has actually earned-14.4%Weak
Gross / Op margin◔Profitability before & after operating costs65% / 10%Strong
Free cash flow◔Cash left after running & investing$626.77BStrong
Cash self-funding◔Self-funding on trailing free cash flow, or months of cash left at the current burnn/an/a
Debt / Equity◔Gross borrowings vs equity — negative book equity is not gradeable0.66Strong
Current ratio◔Can it cover near-term bills? Over 1.5 is healthy1.09OK
Last filed 2026-08-11
Inventory ledger
The stockroom
Data not available.
Segments & geography
Where the revenue lives
Data not available.
Distance from insolvency
Derived · distance from default
Not the debt total — how far this company's asset value could fall before its debts get hard to cover, and how that distance ranks against its peers.
The readSolventwhere it sitspercentile vs solvency universe
How far the company sits from real financial distress, plus how it ranks against peers — more than a debt total tells you.
99.98%12-month survival read
None of 14,345 historical observations in this bucket went bankrupt within 12 months — the served 0.02% is a conservative statistical floor, never a claimed zero.
measured against past bankruptcies and delistings · tested on later years (AUC 0.90) · a historical rate, not a credit rating
25.00
σ to default
0.02%model-implied probability of default ●
Filing-forensics flags
1/4
SafeGreyDistress
Model-implied, not a credit rating.It estimates how far the company's assets would have to fall before it couldn't cover its debts, using a standard model (Merton). Higher is safer. (risk-free rate n/a, one-year horizon, asset volatility from —)
Structural snapshot as of 2026-08-11
Distance-to-default band ●
distress · 0cautionsafe8σ+
Debt-service capacity
Interest coverage●n/a operating income / absolute interest expense
Long-term debt / assets●n/a as filed; distinct from Merton D/V
In detail
How to read these two ratios
The credit engine uses the same stored thresholds shown here: coverage at or below 1× cannot cover interest, while 8× or more is its comfortable band; long-term debt at 10% of assets or less is its light band, while 60% or more is its heavy band. Missing XBRL tags stay n/a.
Altman solvency ●
Altman Z-Score●0.4 Distress
In detail
Why a percentile, not a number
The absolute Z-Score is shown whenever its filing inputs exist. The cross-sectional percentile is a separate field and stays n/a until a current universe rank is on file.
Forensic accounting ●
1Validated forensic-accounting flag fired. Individual flag details are not carried by this endpoint.
Are your shares being diluted?
Derived · ownership erosion
Raw share count is everywhere. The consequence — how fast the count is growing and where that ranks against peers — is the read that matters.
The read—where it sitsdilution percentile vs peers
How fast the share count is changing versus peers, with stock compensation, issuance and repurchases shown separately when covered.
5-year share-count CAGR ●
The CAGR needs annual filings roughly five years apart that both carry a share count. This name's filing history on file does not span that window, so no rate is published — the buyback and stock-comp rows below are measured independently and still hold.
Most-dilutive percentile vs peers
LeastMedianMost
0percentile100
Peer percentile●1th below median
Stock comp / revenue◔n/a not covered
Stock comp / OCF◔operating cash flown/a not covered
Gross buyback yield●n/a TTM repurchases / market value
Net buyback yield●n/a TTM repurchases minus issuance / market value
Diluted / basic share gap●n/a latest fiscal-year per-share overhang proxy
SBC trend◔n/a up to five fiscal years
Shares outstanding · indexed 5y ●
Indexing needs an unbroken run of annual share counts across the same five-year window the CAGR uses. Where a year is missing — or the reported counts switch share class mid-series — the chart is withheld rather than drawn across the gap.
Analyst & estimates
The Street
Data not available.
How this name behaves into the print
Earnings habit
The street's consensus-surprise habit — whether estimates run conservative or aggressive against what the company reports, not management's own guidance — the beat streak graded against names with the same profile, and what the tape does on good news.
The readMisses oftenwhere it sitsvalidated base rates · graded out-of-time
Whether the street sandbags this name, how often a beat streak like this persists (with its sample size), and what the tape does with good news.
40%of names with this beat profile beat againn=17,552 · observational
Consensus habit · trailing 8 quarters
Consensus-surprise habit●not management guidanceconsensus runs high for this name — it usually falls short n=8
Trailing beat rate●13% beat ≤2 of the last 8 · n=8
40%of names that beat ≤2 of the last 8 went on to beat again — 0.64× the segment average (cohort record since 2000, not this stock alone)n=17,552 · observational
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
What the tape does with it
0%of the time it beat the estimate but fell anywayn=9 · observational
44%of the time it missed the estimate but rose anywayn=9 · observational
Avg reaction on a beat●+1.0% n=1
Avg reaction on a miss●-0.3% n=8
undetermined — needs ≥4 measured beats
Earnings-day move · typical●±1.0% p90 ±2.2% · worst ±2.5% (2021-07-30) · n=9
Implied vs realized move●— insufficient options history
In detail
How to read the habit
This is a historical rate: among companies with the same recent beat record, that share beat again. It was checked on later periods than the ones it learned from, and against the plain long-run average. It describes the group, not this specific report.
Ownership & positioning
Ownership
Who holds it, how options lean, and the most recent insider, congressional and 13F transactions.
The read—where it sitspositioning band · not a vote
Who owns it and what insiders and big funds are doing. Steady buying reads positive; heavy selling reads cautious.
Holders
Institutional●3.1%
Insider●0.1%
Institutional flow●—
Fund concentration●—
Activist stake●None on file
Insider & short
Insider 90d net●—
10b5-1 vs discretionary◔scheduledMostly programmatic
Short interest · %float◔0.1%
Short interest · 30d Δ◔—
Options positioning
Put/call · OI●—
Put/call · volume●—
Implied move●next exp.±—
IV skew (25Δ)●—
In detail
Reading the positioning
Institutional flow data unavailable.
Recent transactions Form 4 + congressional●
FilerSourceActionValueDate
Rep. Virginia FoxxHouse · CongressBuy$1,001 - $15,00016 Feb
Rep. Virginia FoxxHouse · CongressBuy$1,001 - $15,00001 Nov
Rep. Nicholas Van TaylorHouse · CongressSell$15,001 - $50,00025 Mar
Rep. Greg GianforteHouse · CongressBuy$15,001 - $50,00021 Dec
13F filers · last quarter ●
Renaissance TechnologiesAdded+3.0M sh · $55M
Conviction weighting, not a transaction list
Derived · who's actually buying
Insider buys are weighted by how senior the buyer is and whether several bought at once, alongside how fast big funds moved in or out quarter to quarter.
The read—where it sitscontinuing holders only — excludes new and exited funds
Insider buys, weighted by how senior the buyer is and whether several buy at once — plus how fast big funds are moving in or out.
How strong the insider buying is ●
n/a / 18.44
018.44
Intensity index — explicitly not a probabilityDistinct exec buyers
n/a
Buy clusters · last 90d
90d agotoday
Fund holders · quarter on quarter ●
Net registered funds 0 this quarter
Continuing holders●Trimming on balance funds that held through both quarters
In detail
Reading the flow
No clustered executive buying this window. Among funds that held the name through both quarters, more trimmed than added. Separately, the registered-holder count moved 0 quarter-over-quarter (7 new, 7 exited). The two count different populations, so they can point opposite ways. Conviction is intensity, not a forecast.
Options
Options pressure
Data not available.
Gamma map
Coverage
Data not available.
Peers & supply chain
Territory · peers & supply chain
The names in this stock's orbit — how each is trading today, and how they wire together as suppliers, customers and competitors.
The readOutpacing groupfact
How nearby companies are trading. Moving with them is a sector story; breaking away is specific to this stock.
TickerRelationshipTodayRelative move
TAKThis stock+0.57%
In detail
Outpacing its peers
TAK is +0.5% ahead of the peer average (+0.04%). Divergence from the group is where the stock-specific signal lives.
Supply map how the territory wires together●
partnercompetitor
Customer momentum
The customer chain
Data not available.
News & social
The story
Data not available.
What this name did from here
Time machine
Each look-back point: the price then, the move to today, and what was going on — earnings, corporate events, news flow.
The readHigher than a year agofact
The price at each look-back point and the move to today, with what was happening at the time — the per-ticker face of the track record.
Look-backs · vs the $17.55 close of 2026-08-10
3 months ago●$16.46 +6.6% to today
6 months ago●$18.10 -3.0% to today
1 year ago●$14.44 +21.5% to today
3 years ago●$15.29 +14.8% to today
history starts 2023-06-01
In detail
Why we show the rear-view mirror
Every number on this page gets graded by what happens next. The time machine is the same idea pointed backwards: the state of this name at each past date and the move that followed, for any symbol — not a curated highlight reel.
The risk case
The case against
What can break: how hard this name has fallen before, a sensible position cap, whether it behaves like a lottery ticket, how much cash it has left, how it drifts after earnings, whether the dividend holds, and what changed in the filings — plus a crowding read when its three inputs agree.
The readCoverage incompletewhere it sitsan experimental model estimate · the history-based reads below are graded separately
The case against the stock: how hard it has fallen before, how much cash it has left, how it behaves after earnings, whether the dividend holds, what changed in the filings, and how crowded the trade is.
Avoid score · v2.1 isotonic model · experimental
The nightly batch has not scored this name yet — the model needs universe-wide ranking features that are not computed on demand.
Terminal fate · the cohort's ledger
Of 1242 large names tracked 2016-2026, 0.2% were delisted for cause within 24 months and 3.0% were acquired — historical frequencies for the cohort, not a forecast for this name.
Cohort●large 2016-2026
12m outcomes●for-cause 0.1% [0.0%–0.2%] acquired 1.6% [1.3%–1.8%] · still listed 98.0% · n=1321
24m outcomes●for-cause 0.2% [0.1%–0.4%] acquired 3.1% [2.5%–3.7%] · still listed 96.0% · n=1242
36m outcomes●for-cause 0.4% [0.1%–0.7%] acquired 4.5% [3.6%–5.4%] · still listed 94.0% · n=1182
In detail
Reading the fate ledger
Each row is what happened to every tracked name in this size cohort over that window — delisted for cause, acquired, or still listed — with the band around each rate. These are the cohort's historical frequencies, not probabilities for this name, and the acquisition arm is never an acquisition forecast.
Max defensible position size
4.0%max defensible size 3.9% - tail bindsn=29,742 · observational
Segment●large routing cohort
Vol tercile●low realized vol bucket
Momentum sign●pos trailing return direction
Half-Kelly●77.2% Kelly criterion / 2
Tail cap●3.9% VaR / CVaR limit
Cat cap●90.1% catastrophe-rate limit
Binding constraint●tail
Lottery profile
No lottery signal — trailing-21d max daily return is within the normal range for its cohort (large).
Cash runway · non-burner
Positive free cash flow — burner runway risk does not apply. Non-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).
Post-earnings drift · reaction vs sigma
+3.21% spread63-trading-day post-earnings drift, graded by reaction magnitude (bucket: z<1)
Drift odds at full strength (+3.21% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).
Latest earnings reaction●+1.0% 2023-07-27
Daily sigma (21d)●1.51% baseline volatility used for z-score
Reaction size●z<1 first-day move ÷ its normal daily move
Strength of evidence●7.46 Newey–West t — how consistent the pattern is, not how many cases
In detail
How post-earnings drift works
After an earnings reaction, how far price keeps drifting over the next 63 trading days depends on how big the first move was. A jump more than four times the stock's normal daily move usually spends the effect — the market has already repriced it. Milder reactions historically kept drifting, by about 3.2 percentage points in our sample.
Dividend reliability · evidence incomplete
Dividend yield●4.14% profile value · percentage points
FCF coverage●>2x free cash flow vs dividend
The calibration stores historical within-period yield-tercile cells but not the mapping for today's yield, so no cut or suspension probability is published.
Filing restatements
No material restatement on file in the trailing 2 years.
Calibration scorecard
Auditable track record
Every rating we publish is fingerprinted, tracked, and resolved in public. Here's how we've actually done.
12
calls logged
track record builds as calls resolve (5/8)
track record builds as calls resolve (5/8)