Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK) — Specialty & Generic Pharma. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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TAK fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 2.62M · 3-mo avg 3.10M

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK)

TAKTakeda Pharmaceutical Company Limitedloading…
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QTick signal
-4net
0 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 0 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressCautionPCE inflation days · ~20% bigger swingsOKNeutral tape · 1/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$18.77
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$19.06
center $19.06 · basis · daily pivot + high 52w + round · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
—
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
Low
0.71× the norm · 47% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.20×
52-week range$12.99 – $19.10
Below high since 2015-39.9% · $31.39 high
Risk / reward0.21 : 1
Plan stop$17.93
Max pain—
RSI 1460.2 fires under 35 · fires near $17.32
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple35.9× fwd · 40.0× trailing
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield1,031.6% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 1.5%. Over the last 20 sessions, 53% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

Bearish tape — sell
RSI 14
●
60.2
fires under 35 · fires near $17.32
vs 50-day
●
$17.90
above the line · fires near $18.06
Bollinger
●
$17.90
no lower pierce · fires near $17.78
VWAP 20
●
$18.59
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $18.58
Entry level
✓
$18.77
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context✓
+0.02
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
1.20×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
0.3%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.28
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-29
in 25 sessions
Next dividend
3.29% yld
no ex-date on file