Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK) — $17.55 +0.57%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

TAKpeers & supply-chain relationships

TAK fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 4.17M · Avg 3.49M
TAKTakeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited$17.55+0.57%Pre-market$17.52-0.17%

WAIT.

Not worth owning here — the balance sheet is under real strain and the filings carry red flags.

The balance-sheet safety score sits in its distress band and 2 accounting red flags are raised — the quality screen fails at any price. 1 of 5 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 3. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
-2net
0 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 2 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
1 of 5 aligned — not yet
Quality fails the screen — a distress-zone balance sheet with forensic flags.
Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 1.2× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$17.46
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$18.90
center $18.90 · basis · high 52w + round · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~64% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.0× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg1.20× · 4.17M vs 3.49M avg
52-week range$12.99 – $18.90
Below high since 2015-44.1% · $31.39 high
Risk / reward1 : 1.7
Plan stop$16.62
Max pain
RSI 1461.0 fires under 35 · fires near $15.29
Forensic flags2 review
What-if price
$17.55
$15.20 · -13.4%-13.4%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+4.6% · $18.36+4.6%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers1 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
61.0
fires under 35 · fires near $15.29
vs 50-day
$16.37
above the line · fires near $16.51
Bollinger
$16.31
no lower pierce · fires near $16.19
VWAP 20
$17.03
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $17.02
Entry level
$17.46
within 1% of model level
Put wall
not on file
MACD
-0.01
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
1.20×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
0.1%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.40
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
29 Oct 2026 · before the bell
bmo · in 78 days
Next dividend
3.53% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed