Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) — Application Software. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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PEGA fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 1.11M · 3-mo avg 2.69M

Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA)

PEGAPegasystems Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+1net
1 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 14/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$33.58
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$67–68
center $67.78 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
—
not on file
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Pullback risk
In line
1.07× the norm · 84% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.47×
52-week range$25.10 – $68.10
Below high since 2015-54.2% · $73.62 high
Risk / reward10.81 : 1
Plan stop$30.60
Max pain—
RSI 1443.3 fires under 35 · fires near $31.26
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple13.3× fwd · 20.1× trailing
P/E vs its own past2nd pctile · 45.3× median
Price / booknot on file

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price down 1.4%. Over the last 20 sessions, 63% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 5 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
43.3
fires under 35 · fires near $31.26
vs 50-day
●
$33.39
above the line · fires near $33.71
Bollinger
●
$33.58
no lower pierce · fires near $33.52
VWAP 20
✓
$36.24
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$33.58
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-0.35
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.47×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
11.9%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.49
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-20
in 18 sessions
Next dividend
0.36% yld
no ex-date on file