Deep dive · NYSE: PEB
Pebblebrook Hotel Trust stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Pebblebrook Hotel Trust. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Trend and Risk are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at +5 over 30d, a leaning reading on a dispersion of 0.09, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
earnings, analyst moves, sentiment vote up. 3 of 4 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
1 of 4 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Trend against Risk.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are long gamma, so their hedging absorbs moves rather than amplifying them; separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −6.7%; and the binding position cap is 3.2% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean+0.62%
FrankfurtPD0+0.62%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 1 overseas venue listed above with a quote, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-11-06
Wall Street rating
Hold
-6% to the average target
25% buy · 56% hold · 19% sell
mean target $20
mean target $20
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $19.30 · +9.4%
200-day $16.31 · +29.5%
200-day $16.31 · +29.5%
Earnings
In 108 days
24 Feb 2027 · options imply ±14.8%
beat 5–6 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=46,131
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=46,131
Valuation
-120.7× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield 10.59%
Dividend
0.19%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 0.92 · vol 35% ann.
worst drawdown -12%
worst drawdown -12%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does154 chars
Pebblebrook Hotel Trust is a publicly traded real estate investment trust and the largest owner of urban and resort lifestyle hotels in the United States.
NYSE · USDHotel & Motel REITs
$21.12+0.31 · +1.49%CLOSED · vol 2.62M
52-week range↑ 102% off low · ↓ 5.7% off high
$10.46now $21.12$22.40
Quote Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
01Ratios · Jul 7, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 0.3 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
0.34DISTRESS ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 7, 2026
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 4/9
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills0.70×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital1.00
Leverage · long-term debt / total assetsthe share of everything the company owns that long-term borrowing funds0.40
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$2.27B
Free cash flow · TTMcash left after running and reinvesting in the business$283.44M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
7th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldSHRINKING
3.45%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
3.45%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
0.9%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
SBC / operating cash flowFLAT
5%
How much of the cash the business generates is being handed to employees as stock. The higher it runs, the more of a buyback is just offsetting it.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE D
50 / 100
1 critical · 2 watch · 1 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCRITICALZ 0.34Altman-Z in the distress zone · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not applicable to this sector · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.83long-term debt 0.83× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/9Piotroski F-score 4 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 2 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Nov 8, 2026POOR · 11/100
Business quality
-4% net margin, -3% return on equity, +2% revenue growth, and capital earning 1% against a 6% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
11 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Nov 8, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
-4.5%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
24.2%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
5.1%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-2.7%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-5.0pp
Earns 1% on invested capital that costs about 6%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Free cash flow (TTM)TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS
$283.44M
Cash left after running and reinvesting in the business.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+11.3%
3 months+19.2%
6 months+43.5%
Year to date+86.6%
1 year+105.2%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+1.5%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+85.0%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 8%
92 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsOct 29, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
64%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
6 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
47%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
56%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±1.7%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missASYMMETRIC
+0.3% / -0.8%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
0.19%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
>2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Nov 6, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.1%1,163,542
21d47%-0.4%549,860
63d47%-0.8%174,335
slope +0.22 over 40 bars
Bullish harami · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%-0.1%134,179
21d48%-0.3%63,306
63d49%-0.2%20,229
small body inside prior bearish
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%1,293,438
21d49%0.0%607,588
63d51%+0.2%191,671
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%1,001,589
21d49%0.0%470,024
63d52%+0.2%147,634
three troughs ≈ equal
Cup and handle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.3%717,973
21d46%-0.6%340,024
63d47%-1.3%107,220
U-base + small handle pullback
Macd bearish cross · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%+0.1%160,672
21d50%0.0%75,626
63d50%0.0%23,954
MACD crossed below signal
03-120.7× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $21.12, -120.7× forward earnings, RSI 57, and dealers long gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2003 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $19.30 · 200-day $16.31. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-11-04 → 2026-11-06
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Up 1.49% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)WARM
57
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±3.2%
$0.67
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.04
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position60% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$20.83
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$20.38
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
24 Feb 2027 · in 108 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number.
2026-11-10 · in 2 daysInflation (CPI)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
50 / 50cohort n=12,270
Effectively a coin flip. A split this close is not an edge you can size on, whichever side is nominally ahead. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.07× segment rate · n=13,626
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 85% of cases (n=13,626).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
0.4σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$20 – $211 support
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $20.75.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds are a coin flip.
Historically, names tripping 1 validated red flag finished lower 12 months later in 50% of cases (n=12,270) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-20.08
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/EAnalysts expect a loss over the next twelve months, so there are no earnings for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
Trailing P/EThe company lost money over the trailing year, so there are no earnings for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit1.6×5yr median 1.2×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.0×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay17.0×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off18.6×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value10.59%
1 of the 5 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. 2 are marked not meaningful because the figure they divide into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingNov 6, 2026
Entryzone of S1
$21.01In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetBb upper + 52-week high
$22.40$22–$23
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$19.67risk $1.35/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
1.03:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-8.6%
short-term trend line · $19.30
To the 200-day
-22.8%
primary trend line · $16.31
To the put wall
-5.3%
heaviest put open interest · $20.00
To the call wall
-17.1%
heaviest call open interest · $17.50
To the composer's target
+6.1%
Bb upper + 52-week high · set Nov 6, 2026 · $22.40
To the composer's stop
-6.9%
2× ATR below entry · set Nov 6, 2026 · $19.67
To the 52-week high
+6.1%
highest print of the past year · $22.40
To the 52-week low
-50.5%
lowest print of the past year · $10.46
Options-implied week ±14.8%
$17.99 – $24.25
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$20.45 – $21.79
±$0.67 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $21.01 · stop $19.67 · target $22.40, a 1.03:1 ratio. The composer flagged: target inside one week's move.
Gamma mapChain · Nov 8, 2026
Signal
Long gamma — moves get absorbed.
Dealers hedge against the move, which damps volatility around the current strikes. It makes the tape quieter without saying anything about which way it goes.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-11-20 · Chain · Nov 8, 2026
Max pain-17.1%
$17.50
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.47
68% calls
32% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.00
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $3.13
±14.8%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$22.50CALL7
$17.50CALL7
$20.00PUT6
$2.50CALL1
$2.50PUT1
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-11-20CallsPutsMax pain $17.50
7
$22.50
00
$20.00
67
$17.50
01
$2.50
1
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$22.40+6.1%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$17.50-17.1%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$17.50-17.1%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$19.30-8.6%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$20.00-5.3%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +5
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 133%, short interest is 19.15% of float, and 12 analysts average $20.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+5LEANING · 30d
3 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
+1
6 price-target raises in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+3
latest EPS beat by a wide margin (low EPS base)
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (67/100)
Signal
3 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +5 over 30d, a leaning reading. 3 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readNov 8, 2026
Signal
3 of 4 families lean up.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.09 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street12 covering firms
Consensus rating12 ANALYSTS
Hold
25% buy · 56% hold · 19% sell, as a share of the 12 covering firms.
Mean price target-6%
$20
$15now $21$24
A $15–$24 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$-0.18
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Evercore ISI Group$21↑50/100
Wells Fargo$20↑50/100
Morgan Stanley$15↑51/100
Morgan Stanley$14↑51/100
Raymond James$20↑50/100
Barclays$14↓51/100
Cantor Fitzgerald$19↑46/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
133.4%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
2.6%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)CROWDED
19.15%
Rising — shares short changed +9.3% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float92% OF SHARES
104.29M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)80th PCTILE
$49.33M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Bayless William C Jr · DirectorAwardnot on file—01 Oct
Bayless William C Jr · DirectorFilingnot on file—07 Oct
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
+1.49%
PEB rose +1.49% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “Pebblebrook Shares In Focus After Raised Full Year Outlook - Simply Wall St” (Simply Wall St).
News tone · 7-day—
67 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 50 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
10h agoSUNS,FG,BNL,ZOMDF,NTHI,BATRA,ATLO,OPAL,NEOG,PEB,SAIC,INNV,NEWT,MTDR,VG,LUCK,GROV,EVH,AWRE,IRIX,BUSE,BLNE,RNXT | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
11h agoPebblebrook Hotel Trust (NYSE:PEB) Stock Now Rated "Hold" by Sell-Side Analysts - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
19h agoPebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB) Stock Forecasts - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
FriPebblebrook Shares In Focus After Raised Full Year Outlook - Simply Wall StSimply Wall Stnot scored
FriPacific Edge (ASX:PEB), Epiminder (ASX:EPI) and CurveBeam AI (ASX:CVB): Where Do Medical Technology Stocks Stand? - KalkineKalkinenot scored
FriPacific Edge Limited (ASX:PEB) Shares Rise on Medicare Coverage News: Why Does It Matter? - KalkineKalkinenot scored
FriBNL,NTHI,IMRX,ATLO,OPAL,VSH,SDHC,PEB,INNV,GRNT,NEWT,PETS,LUCK,GROV,RVSB,RLMD,IRIX,BUSE,HURC,BLNE | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
FriIs Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB) Fully Priced After A 100% Run? - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net selling.
1 of 6 disclosures are buys and 5 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0518 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.92, 35% annual volatility, a -12% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−6.7%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−10.4%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.2×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-12.2%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)IN LINE
0.92
Moves about 0.9× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
35%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure51
Overheat21
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
0.6%0.1× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 55.0% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 3.2% is the number (n=140,733). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 3.2% against a 14.4% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.44% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.19% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
Our track record18 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
49 logged
49 calls logged on this name, 18 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
0610-K disclosed linksHOTEL & MOTEL REITS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-8.5% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
HSTPeer$24.62-0.04%
RHPPeer$132.05+0.29%
APLEPeer$18.88+4.02%
PKPeer$15.74+1.22%
DRHPeer$14.04+0.43%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Inflation (CPI)
2026-11-10. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockNov 8, 2026
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Property companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later -0.8% · Two weeks later +0.2% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, PEB moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI) is due in 2 days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedProperty companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +1.6% · Two weeks later +1.7% · Rose on 23 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, PEB moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 1.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Property companies borrow heavily; higher rates raise their costs and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later -0.3% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 16 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, PEB moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Inflation (CPI) is due in 2 days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedProperty companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +1.6% · Two weeks later +1.7% · Rose on 23 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, PEB moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 1.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Property companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later -0.8% · Two weeks later +0.2% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, PEB moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Lower rates ease property companies' heavy borrowing costs.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 90 of 173 report days
Across the last 173 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, PEB moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI) is due in 5 days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expectedProperty companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +1.4% · Two weeks later +1.6% · Rose on 23 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, PEB moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 1.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually hurts when job openings come in higher than expected
Strong jobs push rates up, and property companies borrow heavily.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later +0.9% · Two weeks later +1.9% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, PEB moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 1.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
HD · Suppliersupplier-1.85%Rumored · manual
PLD · Partnerpartner-1.24%Rumored · manual
SPG · Competitorcompetitor+0.83%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.