Deep dive · NCM: NXGL
NEXGEL, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on NEXGEL, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
0 factors lean up and 4 lean down and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at -8 over 30d, a moderate reading on a dispersion of 0.00, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans down · and why
earnings, analyst moves, quality / value vote down. 5 of 5 families lean the other way.
What it changes
Size, not direction. separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −34.5%; and the binding position cap is 1.4% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tape
No overseas listings — NXGL trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Wall Street rating
Hold
Across 1 covering firms
1 analysts
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $0.36 · -52.2%
200-day $0.81 · -78.4%
200-day $0.81 · -78.4%
Earnings
In 44 days
10 Nov 2026
beat ≤2 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
Valuation
-0.8× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield -86.79%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 0.46 · vol 123% ann.
worst drawdown -94%
worst drawdown -94%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NCM · USDMedical Instruments & Supplies
$0.17-0.08 · -31.98%CLOSED · vol 3.61M
52-week range↑ 12% off low · ↓ 94.0% off high
$0.16now $0.17$2.89
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Sep 27, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of -2.2 against a 3.0 safe threshold, interest covered -98.6×, and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
-2.19DISTRESS ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetSep 27, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)STRESSED
-0.5σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
9.47%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 5/9
Piotroski F-score 5 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.47×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.69
Interest coverageoperating profit against the interest bill-98.6×healthy >5
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.06
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$2.77M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
95th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Stock-based comp / revenueELEVATED
5.7%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
60 / 100
1 critical · 2 watch · 2 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCRITICALZ -2.19Altman-Z in the Distress · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -3.49M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.10long-term debt 0.10× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 5/9Piotroski F-score 5 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 2 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026POOR · 38/100
Business quality
-26% net margin, -67% return on equity, +31% revenue growth, and capital earning -48% against a 4% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
38 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
-26.3%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
39.5%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
-29.3%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-67.3%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-52.0pp
Earns -48% on invested capital that costs about 4%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Asset growth vs peersIN LINE
29th pctile
The balance sheet grew -5% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-50.3%
3 months-66.7%
6 months-73.6%
Year to date-90.4%
1 year-92.8%
Revenue growth (YoY)FAST
+31.5%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-85.3%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 4%
4 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 17, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
39%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT ≤2 OF THE LAST 8
2 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
80%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
15%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±5.6%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledgerFY2025 · XBRL
Signal
The mix is weighted to inputs, not output.
Inventory stands at $2.11M, sits 111 days before it sells, and tilts toward raw materials by 0.17 on the finished-less-raw share. An input-heavy mix carries less write-down risk than a finished-goods build, because the material has not yet been committed to one product.
Segments & geographyFY2025 · dimensional XBRL
Signal
One segment is the company.
Consumer branded products is 64% of revenue across 4 disclosed segments, giving a product HHI of 5,146. That means this stock's cycle is that one market's cycle, and the diversification the other lines suggest is not really there.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.61 over 40 bars
Gap down · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d45%0.0%170,953
21d46%-0.2%80,412
63d44%-2.7%25,212
opened -8.8% below prior close
Rsi oversold · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%0.0%225,518
21d48%0.0%106,358
63d50%0.0%33,595
RSI 25 ≤ 30
Macd bearish cross · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%155,697
21d51%+0.2%73,213
63d50%+0.1%23,243
MACD crossed below signal
03-0.8× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $0.17, -0.8× forward earnings, RSI 25.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $0.36 · 200-day $0.81. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 31.98% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)OVERSOLD
25
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±17.7%
$0.03
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
0.00
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position0% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$0.25
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$0.28
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
10 Nov 2026 · in 44 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 28 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Elevated1.13× segment rate · n=922
Historically, micro names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 99% of cases (n=922).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-2.7σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$0 – $02 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Low 52w at $0.16, S1 at $0.14.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
100 / 100Falling knife
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Valuation
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-0.34
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/EAnalysts expect a loss over the next twelve months, so there are no earnings for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.1×5yr median 3.5×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets0.4×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value-86.79%
1 of the 3 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. 1 is marked not meaningful because the figure it divides into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableMicro-cap names are excluded from the level composer by design. At this size the daily range routinely swallows the distance between an entry and a stop, so the levels would describe noise rather than structure.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -8
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 14%, short interest is 2.56% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-8MODERATE · 30d
0 bull / 4 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
-2
1 analyst downgrade in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-3
latest EPS missed by a wide margin (low EPS base)
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($25,907 across 12 sells) in 120d
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
Altman-Z in the distress zone
Signal
0 bull / 4 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -8 over 30d, a moderate reading. 4 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 26, 2026
Signal
5 of 5 families lean down.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.00 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street1 covering firms
Consensus rating1 ANALYSTS
Hold
Across 1 covering firms.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Maxim Group—↓62/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
13.7%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
14.0%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
2.56%
Falling — shares short changed -26.5% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float84% OF SHARES
7.69M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)25th PCTILE
$117,823/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Levy Adam R. · Director, Chief Executive OfficerAwardnot on file—23 Jul
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
-31.98%
NXGL fell −31.98% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “NexGel Shareholders Approve Stock Expansion and Split - The Globe and Mail” (The Globe and Mail).
News tone · 7-day—
58 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 25 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
ThuNexGel Shareholders Approve Stock Expansion and Split - The Globe and MailThe Globe and Mailnot scored
ThuNexGel Announces Strategic Review and Platform Reorganization - TipRanksTipRanksnot scored
ThuA strategic review is the focus of a new shareholder presentation from NexGel (NXGL). - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
WedNexGel shareholders approve share increase and reverse stock split proposals - Investing.com CanadaInvesting.com Canadanot scored
WedNexGel shareholders approve share increase and reverse stock split proposals - Investing.comInvesting.comnot scored
WedNexGel Shareholders Approve Stock Expansion and Split - TipRanksTipRanksnot scored
WedForm 8K Nexgel Inc For: 23 September By Investing.com - Investing.com NigeriaInvesting.com Nigerianot scored
WedForm 8K Nexgel Inc For: 23 September By Investing.com - Investing.com UKInvesting.com UKnot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.46, 123% annual volatility, a -94% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−34.5%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−61.9%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementHEAVY TAIL
1.4×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownIT CAN HALVE
-93.7%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.46
The market explains about 0.3% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
123%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Falling knife
Selling pressure90
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: falling_knife — Still breaking lower without consolidation — a fresh swing-low printed and no basing pattern has formed yet.
What votes againstNightly
HighEarningslatest EPS missed by a wide margin (low EPS base)4 quarters · -3
MedAnalyst moves1 analyst downgrade in 90d90d · -2
MedQuality / valueAltman-Z in the distress zoneTTM · -2
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($25,907 across 12 sells) in 120d120d · -1
Signal
4 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as unknown, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
1.4%tail cap binds
max defensible size 1.4% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
50.0%2.0× its cohort · sub-$1 names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this sub-$1 names segment: 25.6%. This name reads 2.0× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 4.3% · tail cap 1.4% · category cap 13.7%. The tail cap binds, so 1.4% is the number (n=97,254). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 4.4% against a 23.4% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
HighCash runwayAbout 0.2 quarters of cash at current burn ($492,000 cash against $10M a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 28.6% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
MedPost-earnings driftMove already priced: after jumps this large, measured drift edge is zero.Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -94%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 123% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 1.4% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
9 logged
9 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on NXGLTHIS NAME
9
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksMEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-25.6% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
ISRGPeer$405.18+1.42%
MDLNPeer$34.70+0.12%
BDXPeer$183.82+2.56%
ALCPeer$64.47-0.14%
RMDPeer$222.00+0.05%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is negative.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 21, 2026
Initial jobless claimsLittle effect either way
Healthcare demand does not depend on hiring.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day -0.6% · A week later -1.6% · Two weeks later -2.7% · Rose on 68 of 170 report days
Across the last 170 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, NXGL moved -0.6% on average on the day and was 2.7% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Little effect either wayPeople need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +0.5% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, NXGL moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionLittle effect either way
Healthcare demand does not depend on rates.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.7% · A week later -1.4% · Two weeks later -1.3% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, NXGL moved +0.7% on average on the day and was 1.3% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
On the day -0.3% · A week later -1.4% · Two weeks later -0.9% · Rose on 15 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, NXGL moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 0.9% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionLittle effect either way
Healthcare does not track the business cycle.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later -1.7% · Two weeks later -2.2% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, NXGL moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 2.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationLittle effect either wayPeople need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +0.5% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, NXGL moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Little effect either way
People need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day -1.1% · A week later -3.0% · Two weeks later -4.1% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, NXGL moved -1.1% on average on the day and was 4.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
On the day -0.2% · A week later -1.7% · Two weeks later -2.2% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, NXGL moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 2.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
IQV · Partnerpartner-1.69%Rumored · manual
AMZN · Suppliersupplier+0.12%Rumored · manual
PFE · Competitorcompetitor+0.92%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.