Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) — Residential Construction. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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MTHpeers & supply-chain relationships

MTH fair-value estimate

MTH earnings history

Qtick
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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 10, 2026 · 12:46 PM ETVol 126.7K · 3-mo avg 835.7K

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH)

MTHMeritage Homes Corporationloading…
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QTick signal
-5net
1 bull / 2 bear factors · leaning
Bull 1 pts·Bear 6 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 10
$69.99
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 9 · price is already 3.2% below it
$84–86
near the 52-week high · midpoint $84.75 · Nov 9
±$5.57
±8.2% up or down, priced by the options market
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
In line
95% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
Trading volume77% below normal0.23× its 20-day average
Past year's range$56.66 – $85.38lowest to highest price
From its peak34.3% belowpeak $106.99, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk2.33 to 1$2.33 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$63.65the setup is broken under this price
Momentum (RSI)59.8fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit12.3× next year14.2× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 99%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 7.0×
Cash it generates2.2%of its market value, per year

Trading lighter than its own normal, price down 3.7%. Over the last 20 sessions, 52% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
59.8
fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
vs 50-day
●
$63.93
above the line · fires near $64.45
Bollinger
●
$54.94
no lower pierce · fires near $53.20
VWAP 20
●
$64.52
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $64.45
Entry level
✓
$69.99
below the model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context✓
+0.67
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.23×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
7.9%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$3.17
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-03
in 57 sessions
Next dividend
2.83% yld
no ex-date on file