Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) — Residential Construction. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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MTHpeers & supply-chain relationships

MTH fair-value estimate

MTH earnings history

Qtick
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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 622.7K · 3-mo avg 817.6K

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH)

MTHMeritage Homes Corporationloading…
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QTick signal
-1net
2 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 5 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 11/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$64.66
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$69–70
center $69.18 · basis · bb upper + sma 200 + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$3.89
6.0% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 6% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
1.08× the norm · 85% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 6% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.73×
52-week range$58.03 – $85.38
Below high since 2015-39.3% · $106.99 high
Risk / reward0.91 : 1
Plan stop$60.35
Max pain$65.00 options cluster
RSI 1445.4 fires under 35 · fires near $59.85
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple10.5× fwd · 13.1× trailing
P/E vs its own past89th pctile · 6.8× median
Free cash flow yield2.3% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 0.7%. Over the last 20 sessions, 52% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
45.4
fires under 35 · fires near $59.85
vs 50-day
✓
$69.30
below the line
Bollinger
●
$61.14
no lower pierce · fires near $60.34
VWAP 20
●
$64.88
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $64.87
Entry level
✓
$64.66
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$65.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-21
MACD
Context●
-0.12
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.73×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
7.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$2.15
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-28
in 24 sessions
Next dividend
2.95% yld
no ex-date on file