The Mosaic Company (MOS) — Agricultural Inputs. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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MOSpeers & supply-chain relationships

MOS fair-value estimate

MOS earnings history

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 12.31M · 3-mo avg 9.38M

The Mosaic Company (MOS)

MOSThe Mosaic Companyloading…
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QTick signal
-5net
1 bull / 3 bear factors · leaning
Bull 4 pts·Bear 9 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · Grey—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 6
$22.25
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 6
$31–32
near the 52-week high · midpoint $31.66 · Nov 6
±$1.71
±7.7% up or down, priced by the options market
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
In line
95% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
Trading volume8% above normal1.08× its 20-day average
Past year's range$16.99 – $32.25lowest to highest price
From its peak71.6% belowpeak $78.66, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk3.86 to 1$3.86 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$19.95the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$19.50price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)65.2fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit158.1× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 94%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 9.4×
Cash it generates-7.5%it used more cash than it made

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 0.1%. Over the last 20 sessions, 48% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
65.2
fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
vs 50-day
●
$21.69
above the line · fires near $21.87
Bollinger
●
$16.06
no lower pierce · fires near $15.86
VWAP 20
●
$19.03
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $19.03
Entry level
✓
$22.25
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$17.00
2026-11-06 expiry · chain of 2026-11-03
MACD
Context✓
+0.68
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
1.08×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
10.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.92
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-23
in 72 sessions
Next dividend
USD 0.22
ex-date 2026-12-04