Mercury General Corporation (MCY) — Property & Casualty Insurance. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 9, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 462.8K · 3-mo avg 291.0K

Mercury General Corporation (MCY)

MCYMercury General Corporationloading…
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QTick signal
+2net
1 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on file—Inflation-report days · not on fileRiskFalling sharply · sharp-drop risk 82/100 · was 97 on Nov 5 · Nov 90/6Bottom watch · 0 of 6 confirmations
$82.33
near the 52-week low and a support level · Nov 9
$98–100
near the 200-day average and the 50-day average trade price · midpoint $98.84 · Nov 9
±$7.46
±9.0% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 18% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
Elevated
95% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 18% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
Trading volume39% above normal1.39× its 20-day average
Past year's range$80.42 – $113.06lowest to highest price
From its peak26.8% belowpeak $113.06, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk2.06 to 1$2.06 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$74.94the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$100.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)21.9oversold
Accounting warning signs2worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit6.8× next year4.9× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 30%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 10.1×

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 0.2%. Over the last 20 sessions, 61% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

5 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
✓
21.9
oversold
vs 50-day
✓
$100.56
below the line
Bollinger
✓
$84.28
lower-band pierce
VWAP 20
✓
$96.88
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$82.33
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-0.86
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
1.39×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
6.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$3.69
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-16
in 66 sessions
Next dividend
USD 0.32
ex-date 2026-12-17
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