The Progressive Corporation (PGR) — $213.68 −0.13%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

PGRpeers & supply-chain relationships

PGR fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated not on fileVol 291.1K · Avg 3.31M
PGRThe Progressive Corporation$213.68-0.13%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

3 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+1net
2 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
3 of 6 aligned — closing in
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on fileCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 1.0× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$212.88
basis · pivot low + s1 + sma 200 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$238–241
center $239.38 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$9.38
4.4% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~83% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.3× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.09× · 291.1K vs 3.31M avg
52-week range$189.20 – $254.93
Below high since 2015-27.0% · $292.99 high
Risk / reward1 : 2.0
Plan stop$199.39
Max pain$212.50 options cluster
RSI 1449.8 fires under 35 · fires near $195.98
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$213.68
$194.67 · -8.9%-8.9%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+4.4% · $223.06+4.4%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
49.8
fires under 35 · fires near $195.98
vs 50-day
$212.37
at the line
Bollinger
$201.45
no lower pierce · fires near $199.31
VWAP 20
$211.52
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $211.42
Entry level
$212.88
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$215.00
below max put OI strike
MACD
-0.52
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.09×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
1.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$4.92
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
14 Oct 2026
· in 63 days
Next dividend
6.51% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed