Everything behind the call on Maase Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — MAAS trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $16.86 · -8.8% 200-day $10.54 · +45.8%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 1.00 · vol 81% ann. worst drawdown -41%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
Altman-Z of 3.4 against a 3.0 safe threshold, interest covered -92.1×, and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
3.43SAFE ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJun 23, 2026
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 4/9
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Interest coverageoperating profit against the interest bill-92.1×healthy >5
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
98th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.15%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueELEVATED
9.4%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
SBC / operating cash flowCOVERED
733%
How much of the cash the business generates is being handed to employees as stock. The higher it runs, the more of a buyback is just offsetting it.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE D
50 / 100
1 critical · 2 watch · 1 clear of 4 scored tests
1 of 5 checks clear
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 2.98Altman-Z in the grey zone · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not applicable to this sector · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/9Piotroski F-score 4 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCRITICAL6 flags6 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 2 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 26, 2026FAIR · 43/100
Business quality
The quality blocks below render whatever the filings support; anything absent says so in place.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
43 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 26, 2026
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month
-7.1%
3 months
+22.2%
6 months
+178.4%
Year to date
+163.9%
1 year
+341.8%
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+312.0%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 14%
86 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — no measured print on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
low below two ≈-equal shoulders — bullish reversal
Symmetrical triangle
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.3%302,717
21d46%-0.5%142,134
63d46%-1.7%45,152
converging highs & lows — breakout pending
03
Price & timing
Price $15.37, RSI 47.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed1 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $16.86 · 200-day $10.54. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 9.55% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Market cap$6.80B
Day range$13.97 – $16.01
Above 52-week low+439%
Realized volatility81% ann.
Worst drawdown-40.8%
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
47
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±9.4%
$1.45
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.13
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position32% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$15.42
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$13.53
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
2026-09-29 · in 3 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.21× segment rate · n=10,807
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 96% of cases (n=10,807).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-0.7σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$12 – $153 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $14.85, S1 at $14.22, Pivot low at $13.16.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
30 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Multiples
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets3.2×
0 of the 1 priced multiple above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$15.29In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetDaily pivot + round + vwap 50
$16.07$16–$16
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
StopTucked under the entry zone
$12.13risk $3.17/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.25:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Tucked under the entry zone · set Sep 25, 2026 · $12.13
To the 52-week high
+62.0%
highest print of the past year · $24.90
To the 52-week low
-81.5%
lowest print of the past year · $2.85
A typical day (ATR)
$13.92 – $16.82
±$1.45 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $15.29 · stop $12.13 · target $16.07, a 0.25:1 ratio. The composer flagged: elevated distress, low reward to risk.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +1
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 0%, short interest is 0.31% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+1BALANCED · 30d
Sentiment +1
1 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (75/100)
Signal
1 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +1 over 30d, a balanced reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
0.1%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
60.4%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
0.31%
Rising — shares short changed +41.7% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float21% OF SHARES
91.64M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)55th PCTILE
$3.84M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Li Zhifeng · Chief Technology OfficerFilingnot on file—11 Aug
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
+9.55%
MAAS rose +9.55% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “A Look at Maase Inc (MAAS) After 6.8% Decline -- GF Value $3.14 vs Price $14.03 - gurufocus.com” (gurufocus.com).
Matched · Sep 25, 2026 · source on file
News tone · 7-day—
75 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 50 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
ThuA Look at Maase Inc (MAAS) After 6.8% Decline -- GF Value $3.14 vs Price $14.03 - gurufocus.comgurufocus.comnot scored
ThuMaase Inc. Secures $50 Million PIPE to Expand AI Computing Network and Lingyan LLM - The Globe and MailThe Globe and Mailnot scored
ThuMaase Subsidiary Signs AI Services Platform Agreement With New Gardner, Sagelight Ventures - marketscreener.commarketscreener.comnot scored
ThuMagpieNews Interviews MAAS CTO: Why Did MAAS Attract $50 Million in AI Financing - marketscreener.commarketscreener.comnot scored
ThuMaase Inc. Signs Framework Agreement to Develop Singapore-Based Global AI Services Platform - marketscreener.commarketscreener.comnot scored
ThuMaase Inc. Signs Framework Agreement to Develop Singapore-Based Global AI Services Platform - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
ThuMAAS Group Holdings Says Electrical Work in Hand Totals Around AU$1.2 Billion, Shares Up 7% - marketscreener.commarketscreener.comnot scored
ThuMAAS Group Stock Jumps On Leadership Shake-Up Clarity - TipRanksTipRanksnot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.00, 81% annual volatility, a -41% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-40.8%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
1.00
The market explains about 1.5% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
3-year beta 0.77
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
81%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure19
Buying pressure14
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
0-100 · high = active · lit = the engine's own phase, cohort-banded
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as unknown, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
1.8%tail cap binds
max defensible size 1.8% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
32.4%10.9× its cohort · financials
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this financials segment: 3.0%. This name reads 10.9× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 11.0% · tail cap 1.8% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 1.8% is the number (n=105,487). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
MedLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 11.8% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — above the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+3.21% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -41%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 81% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 1.8% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
4 logged
4 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
0 resolved · 4 open
Calls on MAASTHIS NAME
4
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksASSET MANAGEMENT
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-40.0% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (tailwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
BLKCompetitor$1,086.31+1.20%
BXPeer$118.42+1.03%
BNPeer$36.87+0.66%
KKRPeer$96.67+1.08%
BAMPeer$44.59+0.02%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
More missed loan payments and less borrowing; lower rates also thin banks' margins.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.8% · A week later -2.2% · Two weeks later -2.9% · Rose on 75 of 170 report days
Across the last 170 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, MAAS moved -0.8% on average on the day and was 2.9% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
More mortgages get written.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +1.3% · A week later +3.0% · Two weeks later -0.7% · Rose on 22 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, MAAS moved +1.3% on average on the day and was 0.7% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Businesses borrow more when they are growing.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +1.7% · A week later +10.7% · Two weeks later +12.8% · Rose on 22 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, MAAS moved +1.7% on average on the day and was 12.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
More card swipes and consumer borrowing when spending is strong.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +1.7% · A week later +10.7% · Two weeks later +12.8% · Rose on 22 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, MAAS moved +1.7% on average on the day and was 12.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
On the day -1.4% · A week later -0.9% · Two weeks later -8.0% · Rose on 13 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, MAAS moved -1.4% on average on the day and was 8.0% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expected
Employed people repay loans and borrow more; banks benefit.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.7% · A week later -10.3% · Two weeks later -5.9% · Rose on 17 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, MAAS moved -0.7% on average on the day and was 5.9% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Employed people repay loans and borrow more; banks benefit.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later -10.3% · Two weeks later -3.9% · Rose on 18 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, MAAS moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 3.9% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Unemployment rate is due in 5 days.
Unemployment rateUsually hurts when unemployment rises more than expected
More missed loan payments and less borrowing; lower rates also thin banks' margins.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later -10.7% · Two weeks later -4.3% · Rose on 17 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Unemployment rate reports since Jul 6, 2023, MAAS moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 4.3% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
BLK · Competitorcompetitor+1.20%Rumored · manual
STT · Suppliersupplier+0.14%Rumored · manual
MSFT · Suppliersupplier+3.66%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.