Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — $1,231.94 +3.90%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

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LLY fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:03 PM ETVol 3.01M · Avg 3.04M
LLYEli Lilly and Company$1,231.94+3.90%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

1 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+5net
4 bull / 2 bear factors · leaning
Bull 7 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
1 of 6 aligned — not yet
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 0.9× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$1,221.28
basis · s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$1,239–1,260
center $1,249.23 · basis · daily pivot + high 52w + round · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$61.10
5.0% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~83% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.3× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.99× · 3.01M vs 3.04M avg
52-week range$629.40 – $1,249.45
Below high since 2015-1.4% · $1,249.45 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.2
Plan stop$1,105.79
Max pain$1,140.00 options cluster
RSI 1460.7 fires under 35 · fires near $1,046.83
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$1,231.94
$1,039.61 · -15.6%-15.6%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+5.0% · $1,293.04+5.0%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
60.7
fires under 35 · fires near $1,046.83
vs 50-day
$1,159.65
above the line · fires near $1,169.43
Bollinger
$1,114.80
no lower pierce · fires near $1,108.13
VWAP 20
$1,170.82
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $1,170.64
Entry level
$1,221.28
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$1,210.00
OI strike below · fires near $1,215.11
MACD
+1.60
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.99×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
1.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$42.07
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
29 Oct 2026
· in 79 days
Next dividend
USD 1.73
ex-date 2026-08-14
prices 15-min delayed