Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) — General Pharmaceutical. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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MRK fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:03 PM ETVol 8.29M · 3-mo avg 9.95M

Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)

MRKMerck & Co., Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+8net
4 bull / 1 bear factors · moderate
Bull 11 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeOKPCE inflation days · ~7% smaller swingsOKNeutral tape · 9/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$148.04
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$155–157
center $156.00 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$9.27
6.2% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
Low
0.71× the norm · 47% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.84×
52-week range$78.03 – $156.92
Below high since 2015-5.2% · $156.92 high
Risk / reward0.81 : 1
Plan stop$139.90
Max pain$148.00 options cluster
RSI 1458.0 fires under 35 · fires near $133.20
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple120.0× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own past90th pctile · 20.4× median
Free cash flow yield3.4% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 0.5%. Over the last 20 sessions, 60% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
58.0
fires under 35 · fires near $133.20
vs 50-day
●
$139.72
above the line · fires near $140.94
Bollinger
●
$142.57
no lower pierce · fires near $141.45
VWAP 20
●
$147.39
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $147.35
Entry level
✓
$148.04
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$148.00
2026-09-25 expiry · chain of 2026-09-23
MACD
Context●
-0.38
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.84×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
1.4%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$3.23
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-29
in 24 sessions
Next dividend
2.29% yld
no ex-date on file