Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) — General Pharmaceutical. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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MRK fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 10, 2026 · 4:01 PM ETVol 5.51M · 3-mo avg 10.31M

Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)

MRKMerck & Co., Inc.loading…
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after-hours · no prints

QTick signal
0net
3 bull / 3 bear factors · balanced
Bull 7 pts·Bear 7 pts30d
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$147.31
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 10
$155–158
near a heavy call-option level and the 52-week high · midpoint $156.75 · Nov 10
±$7.86
±5.3% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
In line
88% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.3× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Trading volume47% below normal0.53× its 20-day average
Past year's range$87.26 – $156.92lowest to highest price
From its peak5.7% belowpeak $156.92, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.80 to 1$0.80 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$137.16the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$145.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)53.1fires under 35 · fires near $130.70
Accounting warning signs2worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit149.6× last 12 months
Cash it generates3.4%of its market value, per year

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price down 0.5%. Over the last 20 sessions, 55% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
53.1
fires under 35 · fires near $130.70
vs 50-day
●
$146.22
above the line · fires near $147.60
Bollinger
●
$140.76
no lower pierce · fires near $139.66
VWAP 20
●
$146.55
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $146.46
Entry level
✓
$147.31
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$142.00
2026-11-13 expiry · chain of 2026-11-10
MACD
Context✓
+0.28
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.53×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
1.1%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$5.08
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-02
in 56 sessions
Next dividend
2.30% yld
no ex-date on file