Novartis AG (NVS) — $156.79 +0.29%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

NVSpeers & supply-chain relationships

NVS fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 877.0K · Avg 1.84M
NVSNovartis AG$156.79+0.29%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

1 of 5 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 3. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+4net
2 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 4 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
1 of 5 aligned — not yet
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on fileCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 1.2× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$156.01
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$165–166
center $165.43 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~64% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.0× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.48× · 877.0K vs 1.84M avg
52-week range$117.54 – $170.46
Below high since 2015-8.0% · $170.46 high
Risk / reward1 : 1.1
Plan stop$147.32
Max pain
RSI 1454.9 fires under 35 · fires near $144.18
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$156.79
$143.43 · -8.5%-8.5%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+3.7% · $162.58+3.7%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers1 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
54.9
fires under 35 · fires near $144.18
vs 50-day
$152.98
above the line · fires near $154.45
Bollinger
$149.33
no lower pierce · fires near $148.27
VWAP 20
$154.79
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $154.79
Entry level
$156.01
within 1% of model level
Put wall
not on file
MACD
-0.09
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.48×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
0.3%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$2.90
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
27 Oct 2026 · before the bell
bmo · in 77 days
Next dividend
3.02% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed