Novartis AG (NVS) — General Pharmaceutical. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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NVSpeers & supply-chain relationships

NVS fair-value estimate

NVS earnings history

Qtick
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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 1.17M · 3-mo avg 2.10M

Novartis AG (NVS)

NVSNovartis AGloading…
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QTick signal
+4net
2 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 4 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on fileCautionPCE inflation days · ~14% bigger swingsOKNeutral tape · 21/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$144.73
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$149–151
center $149.60 · basis · round + sma 200 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
—
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 4% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
1.23× the norm · 81% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 4% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.45×
52-week range$121.57 – $170.46
Below high since 2015-14.7% · $170.46 high
Risk / reward0.50 : 1
Plan stop$137.14
Max pain—
RSI 1448.0 fires under 35 · fires near $136.62
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple14.6× fwd · 21.6× trailing
P/E vs its own past78th pctile · 17.7× median
Free cash flow yield5.5% · of market value

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price up 1.3%. Over the last 20 sessions, 48% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
48.0
fires under 35 · fires near $136.62
vs 50-day
✓
$151.50
below the line
Bollinger
●
$127.49
no lower pierce · fires near $124.10
VWAP 20
✓
$145.61
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$144.73
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-0.39
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.45×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
0.3%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$3.80
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-27
in 23 sessions
Next dividend
3.26% yld
no ex-date on file