Deep dive · NASDAQ: LC
LC stock analysis
Everything behind the call on LC. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Event and Positioning are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at +4 over 30d, a leaning reading on a dispersion of 0.25.
Leans up · and why
earnings, analyst moves, sentiment vote up. 3 of 4 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
insider flow vote down. 1 of 4 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Event against Positioning.
Global tape
No overseas listings — LC trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart here
Wall Street rating
Buy
+28% to the average target
100% buy · 0% hold · 0% sell
median target $23
median target $23
Earnings
In 25 days
21 Oct 2026
beat 5–6 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,258
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,258
Valuation
8.0× forward
Against consensus earnings
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 1 clear
worst drawdown -14%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NASDAQ · USDRegional Banks
$17.97-0.59 · -3.18%CLOSED · vol 1.37M
Tape 2026-08-20
01Ratios · Jul 7, 2026
Survival & solvency
and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Distance to default (Merton)
9.4σCOMFORTABLE
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
Balance sheetJul 7, 2026
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.100%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 4/7
Piotroski F-score 4 of 7. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.00
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
70th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldISSUING
-0.01%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.00%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueELEVATED
10.9%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Diluted vs basic share gapOVERHANG
2.29%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
67 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 1 clear of 3 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.01long-term debt 0.01× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/7Piotroski F-score 4 of 7 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 26, 2026GOOD · 68/100
Business quality
14% net margin, 9% return on equity, +27% revenue growth.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
68 / 100GOOD
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 26, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
13.6%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
9.0%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Revenue (TTM)+27% YoY
$1.03B
Trailing twelve-month revenue from the latest filings.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-0.1%
3 months+14.0%
6 months+10.5%
Year to date-6.0%
1 year+18.4%
Revenue growth (YoY)FAST
+26.9%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)MARGINS WIDENING
+157.8%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
Around earningsApr 27, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
64%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
6 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
40%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±11.9%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus bias1.05× COHORT
Persistent
consensus runs low for this name — it routinely clears the bar
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 26, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,479,705
21d49%0.0%695,010
63d51%+0.1%220,093
slope -0.05 over 40 bars
Three black crows · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%+0.1%311,994
21d50%0.0%147,250
63d49%-0.3%46,748
three falling red bars
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,216,877
21d51%+0.1%572,733
63d52%+0.3%181,607
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%975,500
21d52%+0.2%458,215
63d54%+0.5%144,909
three peaks ≈ equal
Inverse head and shoulders · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%494,581
21d50%0.0%232,288
63d51%+0.2%73,891
low below two ≈-equal shoulders — bullish reversal
Rising wedge · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%227,887
21d49%0.0%106,738
63d50%0.0%34,201
rising & converging — bearish
038.0× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $17.97, 8.0× forward earnings, RSI 65.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Momentum (RSI-14)
65WARM
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-08-16 → 2026-08-20
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 3.18% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Typical day (ATR-14)±3.8%
$0.68
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.23
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position11% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$19.20
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$19.21
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Pivots (classic)R1 $18 · S1 $18
$18.09
The last settled session's range projected forward. Reference levels, not predictions — after a big gap they can sit on the wrong side of the price until the next close.
21 Oct 2026 · in 25 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 28 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 3 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
53 / 46cohort n=21,704
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.00× segment rate · n=17,644
Historically, bank names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 55% of cases (n=17,644).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.6σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 0 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 46% of cases (n=21,704) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
3.51pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months8.0×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported12.3×
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth0.05
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit2.1×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.4×
0 of the 5 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableThe technical factors this engine reads are more than four days old, so any level it composed would be anchored to a tape that has moved. They return with the next nightly factor run.
Gamma mapChain · Aug 18, 2026
Options tapeLast snapshot before the 2026-06-18 expiry · Chain · Aug 18, 2026
Max pain-51.1%
$9.00
The strike where most open options would have expired worthless on the last snapshot. That expiry has passed; the next chain read replaces it.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.18
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-06-18 (expired)CallsPutsMax pain $9.00
0
$25.00
00
$24.00
00
$23.00
00
$22.00
00
$21.00
00
$20.00
00
$19.00
00
$18.00
00
$17.00
00
$16.00
00
$15.00
00
$14.00
00
$13.00
00
$12.00
00
$11.00
00
$10.00
0
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$0.00-100.0%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
◇ Max pain$9.00-51.1%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +4
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 91%, short interest is 5.63% of float, and 31 analysts average $23.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+4LEANING · 30d
3 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
+1
1 price-target raise in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+3
latest EPS beat by 24%
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($3,566,063 across 7 sells) in 120d
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (75/100)
Signal
3 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +4 over 30d, a leaning reading. 4 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readAug 18, 2026
Signal
3 of 4 families lean up.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.25 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street31 covering firms
Consensus rating31 ANALYSTS
Buy
100% buy · 0% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 31 covering firms.
Median price target+28%
$23
$20now $18$29
A $20–$29 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
BTIG$25↑60/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
91.1%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
3.1%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
5.63%
The share of the tradable float sold short.
Free float97% OF SHARES
111.32M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)76th PCTILE
$39.77M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Stack Fergal · SVP, Corporate ControllerSell$1.1M—01 Jul
Sanborn Scott · Director, CEOSell$525,028—01 Jul
Cheng Jordan · General Counsel & SecretarySell$114,694—01 Jul
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved on Sep 27, 2026NONE
flat
We don't have a fresh enough quote for LC to measure its move since the last close.
News tone · 7-day—
75 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 5 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
11h agoBioVie Inc. (BIVI) Latest Stock News & Headlines - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadaneutral
19h agoMajor Roadwork Scheduled Friday, September 25 through Thursday, October 1 - Redheaded BlackbeltRedheaded Blackbeltneutral
FriTechnology One's Growth Increasingly Narrowing to the Core Local Government Vertical - MorningstarMorningstarneutral
FriRemington 11-87 Premier Lc - For Sale, Used - Excellent Condition - Guns.comGuns.comneutral
FriCOAS General Dhiraj Seth reviews operational preparedness of Chinar Corps along Line Of Control - indiagazette.comindiagazette.comneutral
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net buying.
5 of 6 disclosures are buys and 1 is a sale. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0510 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
44% annual volatility, a -14% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-13.9%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
44%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
What votes againstNightly
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($3,566,063 across 7 sells) in 120d120d · -1
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company typeRouted as: Bank
Signal
Routed as Bank.
Failure modes are routed by company type, and the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are the validated ones. This name routes as Bank, so the 2 checks above are that cohort's, not a generic list.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
LowPosition sizeThe sizing model has not covered this name, so no defensible cap is published for it.Not scored
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
HighCash runwayAbout 1.0 quarters of cash at current burn ($802M cash against $3.2B a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 28.6% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.44% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 25 days.
Our track record10 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
30 logged
30 calls logged on this name, 10 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on LCTHIS NAME
30
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 10.
0610-K disclosed linksREGIONAL BANKS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 4 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+43.4% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (tailwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
MFGPeer$11.07+4.83%
HDBPeer$23.01+0.79%
MZHOFPeer$57.27+8.06%
IBNPeer$27.92+0.14%
USBPeer$59.33+1.59%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 3 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stock
Data unavailableNo scheduled report or decision has a documented read for LC's sector yet, and there is no price history around one on file. Both fill in as the company's sector is mapped and past reports are studied.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections4 links · 1 confirmed
Direct connections · 4 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
BLK · Competitorcompetitor+1.20%Rumored · manual
STT · Suppliersupplier+0.14%Rumored · manual
MSFT · Suppliersupplier+3.66%Rumored · manual
UPST · Competitorcompetitor-3.37%Confirmed · manual
1 of 4 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.