Deep dive · NasdaqGS: FRMI
Fermi Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Fermi Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Event and Trend are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at 0 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.20, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
earnings, sentiment vote up. 1 of 4 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
analyst moves, insider flow vote down. 3 of 4 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Event against Trend.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are short gamma, so swings get bigger both ways; and the binding position cap is 1.6% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean-4.64%
LondonFRMI-8.95%⏱FrankfurtH3V-4.96%⏱ZurichFRMI0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 3 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Wall Street rating
Buy
+276% to the average target
75% buy · 25% hold · 0% sell
median target $17
median target $17
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $5.75 · -21.4%
200-day $7.25 · -37.6%
200-day $7.25 · -37.6%
Earnings
In 44 days
9 Nov 2026 · options imply ±14.9%
beat ≤1 of the last 5
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
Valuation
34.8× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield -20.94%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 on watch
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 2.59 · vol 77% ann.
worst drawdown -86%
worst drawdown -86%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NasdaqGS · USDSpecialty REITs
$4.52-0.03 · -0.66%CLOSED · vol 16.98M
52-week range↑ 2% off low · ↓ 87.8% off high
$4.43now $4.52$36.99
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Jun 22, 2026
Survival & solvency
and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
n/aNA
Piotroski F-score not available. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetJun 22, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills2.31×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.12
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.11
Net cashcash on hand in excess of every borrowing$277.41M
Your ownership stake
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
83 / 100
0 critical · 1 watch · 2 clear of 3 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 11.11Altman-Z in the safe zone · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.10long-term debt 0.10× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityNAn/aPiotroski F-score not available · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 1 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Jun 22, 2026FAIR · 41/100
Business quality
-44% return on equity.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
41 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Jun 22, 2026
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-44.4%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Revenue (TTM)TRAILING
$0
Trailing twelve-month revenue from the latest filings.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-17.1%
3 months-52.2%
6 months-26.9%
Year to date-48.8%
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 6%
6 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 13, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
39%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT ≤1 OF THE LAST 5
1 of 5
Its own record against consensus. 5 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 4 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus bias0.64× COHORT
Persistent
consensus runs high for this name — it usually falls short
Next reportIN 44 DAYS
9 Nov 2026
Reports bmo · consensus EPS $-0.07 · revenue 6.0 M
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 26, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.34 over 40 bars
Symmetrical triangle
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.3%302,717
21d46%-0.5%142,134
63d46%-1.7%45,152
converging highs & lows — breakout pending
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%764,373
21d45%0.0%357,385
63d47%0.0%112,620
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
0334.8× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $4.52, 34.8× forward earnings, RSI 38, and dealers short gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $5.75 · 200-day $7.25. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 248 sessions2025-10-01 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Down 0.66% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
38
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±7.6%
$0.34
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.01
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position12% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$5.02
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$5.00
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
9 Nov 2026 · in 44 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 28 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 3 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.20× segment rate · n=12,184
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 95% of cases (n=12,184).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.5σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$4 – $43 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $4.50, Pivot low at $4.47, Low 52w at $4.43.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
30 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Valuation
Net cash per shareCASH BACKING
$0.42
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months34.8×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets2.6×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value-20.94%
2 of the 3 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of 52-week low + pivot low
$4.50In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetBb upper + sma 50
$5.70$6–$6
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$3.81risk $0.69/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
1.75:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+27.3%
short-term trend line · $5.75
To the 200-day
+60.3%
primary trend line · $7.25
To the put wall
+10.6%
heaviest put open interest · $5.00
To the call wall
+32.7%
heaviest call open interest · $6.00
To the composer's target
+26.1%
Bb upper + sma 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $5.70
To the composer's stop
-15.7%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $3.81
To the 52-week high
+718.4%
highest print of the past year · $36.99
To the 52-week low
-2.0%
lowest print of the past year · $4.43
Options-implied week ±14.9%
$3.85 – $5.19
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$4.18 – $4.86
±$0.34 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $4.50 · stop $3.81 · target $5.70, a 1.75:1 ratio. The composer flagged: elevated distress, fair-value reference.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 26, 2026
Signal
Short gamma — moves get amplified.
Dealers hedge in the same direction as the move, so swings get bigger both ways rather than one. That argues for a smaller position size, not for a direction.
Options tapeLast snapshot before the 2026-09-25 expiry · Chain · Sep 26, 2026
Max pain+9.1%
$5.00
The strike where most open options would have expired worthless on the last snapshot. That expiry has passed; the next chain read replaces it.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.70
59% calls
41% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
15.65
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $0.68
±14.9%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$5.00PUT3,998
$6.00CALL2,289
$5.00CALL1,888
$5.50CALL1,617
$8.50CALL961
$4.50PUT940
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-09-25 (expired)CallsPutsMax pain $5.00
961
$8.50
9482
$8.00
18779
$7.50
32679
$7.00
7550
$6.50
4002k
$6.00
7242k
$5.50
5852k
$5.00
4k136
$4.50
9408
$4.00
760
$3.50
13
$3.00
03
$2.50
02
$2.00
014
$1.50
037
$1.00
0
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$36.99+706.8%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$6.00+30.9%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$5.00+9.1%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$5.75+25.5%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$5.00+9.1%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 26%, short interest is 23.01% of float, and 9 analysts average $17.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
0BALANCED · 30d
2 bull / 2 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
-1
2 price-target cuts in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+1
latest EPS beat by 34%
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($7,313,580 across 3 sells) in 120d
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (100/100)
Signal
2 bull / 2 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to 0 over 30d, a balanced reading. 4 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 26, 2026
Signal
3 of 4 families lean down.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.20 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street9 covering firms
Consensus rating9 ANALYSTS
Buy
75% buy · 25% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 9 covering firms.
Median price target+276%
$17
$6now $5$35
A $6–$35 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$0.13
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Macquarie$15↓52/100
Macquarie$18→52/100
Mizuho$11↓51/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
26.1%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
47.2%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)CROWDED
23.01%
Rising — shares short changed +28.2% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float41% OF SHARES
262.56M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)85th PCTILE
$84.51M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Bofa Anna · Chief Commercial OfficerFilingnot on file—02 Sep
Ortiz Blanes Jacobo · Chief Operating OfficerAwardnot on file—20 Aug
MCINTIRE LEE A · Director, Chief Executive OfficerAwardnot on file—14 Aug
Perry James Richard · DirectorSell$6.3M—30 Jun
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
-0.66%
FRMI fell −0.66% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “CBRE gets contract to operate and maintain Fermi's first data center (FRMI:NASDAQ) - Seeking Alpha” (Seeking Alpha).
News tone · 7-day+50
100 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 49 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
ThuCBRE gets contract to operate and maintain Fermi's first data center (FRMI:NASDAQ) - Seeking AlphaSeeking Alphanot scored
ThuOne operator will handle cooling, fire protection and maintenance at Fermi's first data center. - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
ThuFRMI Stock Slides Toward Support As Cash Burn Mounts - StocksToTradeStocksToTradenot scored
ThuFRMI Stock Holds Key Support As Cash Burn Mounts - timothysykes.comtimothysykes.comnot scored
ThuFRMI Jan 2027 4.000 call (FRMI270115C00004000) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Finance UKYahoo Finance UKnot scored
ThuFRMI May 2027 4.000 put (FRMI270521P00004000) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Finance UKYahoo Finance UKnot scored
ThuEngineers Gate Manager LP Sells 474,675 Shares of Fermi Inc. $FRMI - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
ThuFRMI Oct 2026 15.000 call (FRMI261016C00015000) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Finance UKYahoo Finance UKnot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0511 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 2.59, 77% annual volatility, a -86% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-86.1%IT CAN HALVE
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
2.59
The market explains about 7.8% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
77%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure63
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
LowAnalyst moves2 price-target cuts in 90d90d · -1
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($7,313,580 across 3 sells) in 120d120d · -1
Signal
2 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as unknown, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
1.6%tail cap binds
max defensible size 1.6% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
50.5%3.4× its cohort · $1–$5 names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this $1–$5 names segment: 14.8%. This name reads 3.4× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 12.4% · tail cap 1.6% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 1.6% is the number (n=109,931). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
MedLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 11.5% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — above the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
HighCash runwayAbout 0.8 quarters of cash at current burn ($208M cash against $1.1B a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 28.6% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -86%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 77% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 2.59 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 1.6% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
21 logged
21 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on FRMITHIS NAME
21
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksSPECIALTY REITS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 2 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-196.8% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
EQIXPeer$1,008.08-2.58%
AMTPeer$169.03+1.06%
DLRPeer$178.61-1.32%
IRMPeer$111.38-2.38%
CCIPeer$67.84+0.31%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2025-10-01
Signal
Every backward window is negative.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 3 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 26, 2026
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedProperty companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later -8.2% · Two weeks later -4.4% · Rose on 5 of 11 report days
Across the last 11 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Oct 29, 2025, FRMI moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 4.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Property companies borrow heavily; higher rates raise their costs and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day -3.6% · A week later -6.3% · Two weeks later -7.0% · Rose on 2 of 11 report days
Across the last 11 FOMC decision reports since Oct 31, 2025, FRMI moved -3.6% on average on the day and was 7.0% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedProperty companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later -8.2% · Two weeks later -4.4% · Rose on 5 of 11 report days
Across the last 11 PCE inflation reports since Oct 29, 2025, FRMI moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 4.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Property companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +2.0% · A week later -1.3% · Two weeks later -0.1% · Rose on 7 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Oct 13, 2025, FRMI moved +2.0% on average on the day and was 0.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Property companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +2.0% · A week later -1.3% · Two weeks later -0.1% · Rose on 7 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 Inflation (CPI) reports since Oct 13, 2025, FRMI moved +2.0% on average on the day and was 0.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Lower rates ease property companies' heavy borrowing costs.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later -2.0% · Two weeks later -5.4% · Rose on 21 of 49 report days
Across the last 49 Initial jobless claims reports since Oct 9, 2025, FRMI moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 5.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually hurts when job openings come in higher than expectedStrong jobs push rates up, and property companies borrow heavily.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day -1.7% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later -4.1% · Rose on 2 of 11 report days
Across the last 11 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Nov 5, 2025, FRMI moved -1.7% on average on the day and was 4.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is due in 5 days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually hurts when hiring comes in stronger than expectedStrong jobs push rates up, and property companies borrow heavily.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later -0.5% · Two weeks later -3.2% · Rose on 4 of 11 report days
Across the last 11 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Nov 5, 2025, FRMI moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 3.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections2 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 2 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
GE · Suppliersupplier+2.29%Rumored · manual
MSFT · Customercustomer+3.66%Rumored · manual
0 of 2 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.