Deep dive · OTC Markets OTCQB: FNMA
Federal National Mortgage Association stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Federal National Mortgage Association. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — FNMA trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $5.86 · -20.3%
200-day $7.30 · -36.0%
200-day $7.30 · -36.0%
Earnings
In 32 days
28 Oct 2026
beat ≤1 of the last 7
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 on watch
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 1.36 · vol 51% ann.
worst drawdown -64%
worst drawdown -64%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does114 chars
Federal National Mortgage Association provides financing solutions for residential mortgages in the United States.
OTC Markets OTCQB · USDMortgage Finance
$4.67-0.08 · -1.68%CLOSED · vol 4.58M
52-week range↑ 30% off low · ↓ 64.2% off high
$3.60now $4.67$13.05
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01
Survival & solvency
and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 4/5CLEAR
Piotroski F-score 4 of 5. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheet
Your ownership stake
Net buyback yieldISSUING
0.00%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.00%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.44%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
75 / 100
0 critical · 1 watch · 1 clear of 2 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageNAn/aLong-term debt / equity not available · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCLEARF 4/5Piotroski F-score 4 of 5 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 1 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02
Business quality
The quality blocks below render whatever the filings support; anything absent says so in place.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
12-1 momentum
-51.1%EX LAST MONTH
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Profitability
Data unavailableNo parsed income statement is on file, so margins, returns on capital and cash generation cannot be computed for this name.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-24.7%
3 months-32.0%
6 months-3.9%
Year to date-57.5%
1 year-63.3%
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 13%
13 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsFeb 14, 2018
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
39%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT ≤1 OF THE LAST 7
1 of 7
Its own record against consensus. 7 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 0 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus bias0.64× COHORT
Persistent
consensus runs high for this name — it usually falls short
Next reportIN 32 DAYS
28 Oct 2026
Reports bmo · revenue 7.3 B
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 26, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.20 over 40 bars
Triple top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%975,500
21d52%+0.2%458,215
63d54%+0.5%144,909
three peaks ≈ equal
Head and shoulders · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%499,633
21d51%+0.1%235,260
63d51%+0.3%74,900
head above two ≈-equal shoulders — bearish reversal
Ascending triangle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%646,584
21d51%+0.1%303,544
63d53%+0.5%96,103
flat resistance, rising support
Rsi oversold · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%0.0%225,518
21d48%0.0%106,358
63d50%0.0%33,595
RSI 29 ≤ 30
03
Price & timing
Price $4.67, RSI 29.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $5.86 · 200-day $7.30. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 1.68% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)OVERSOLD
29
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±7.6%
$0.36
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.08
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position10% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$5.37
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$5.29
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
28 Oct 2026 · in 32 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 31 Jul; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 3 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.20× segment rate · n=12,184
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 95% of cases (n=12,184).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.6σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$4 – $52 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $4.55, S1 at $4.52.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
39 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-4.37pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported116.8×40th of its 5yr range
1 of the 1 priced multiple above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$4.65In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetSma 50 + vwap 50
$5.82$6–$6
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$3.93risk $0.71/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
1.64:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+25.5%
short-term trend line · $5.86
To the 200-day
+56.3%
primary trend line · $7.30
To the composer's target
+24.6%
Sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $5.82
To the composer's stop
-15.8%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $3.93
To the 52-week high
+179.4%
highest print of the past year · $13.05
To the 52-week low
-22.9%
lowest print of the past year · $3.60
A typical day (ATR)
$4.31 – $5.03
±$0.36 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $4.65 · stop $3.93 · target $5.82, a 1.64:1 ratio. The composer flagged: elevated distress.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 21%.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Institutional ownership
21.3%RETAIL-HEAVY
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
The QTick signal
Data unavailableNo factor in the model scored for this name, so there is no net signal to show. The signal appears once the nightly factor run covers it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.0%
The share held by the people running the company.
Free float20% OF SHARES
233.70M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)68th PCTILE
$14.63M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayTECHNICAL
-1.68%
FNMA fell −1.68% since the last close, with RSI at 29 (oversold).
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Evenly split.
3 of 6 disclosures are buys and 3 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0511 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.36, 51% annual volatility, a -64% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−10.8%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−22.7%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementHEAVY TAIL
1.2×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownIT CAN HALVE
-63.7%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
1.36
The market explains about 4.1% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
51%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure66
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as unknown, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
48.1%16.2× its cohort · financials
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this financials segment: 3.0%. This name reads 16.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 27.2% · tail cap 2.2% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.2% is the number (n=92,785). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 7.3% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+3.21% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -64%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 51% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 1.36 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 32 days.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.2% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
23 logged
23 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on FNMATHIS NAME
23
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksMORTGAGE FINANCE
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 9 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+36.4% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (tailwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
RKTPeer$12.17+2.01%
PFSIPeer$65.46+0.31%
FMCCPeer$4.16-1.19%
UWMCCustomer$1.220.00%
WDPeer$37.98+1.80%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
1 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 3 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 26, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
More missed loan payments and less borrowing; lower rates also thin banks' margins.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +2.8% · Two weeks later +5.0% · Rose on 62 of 171 report days
Across the last 171 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, FNMA moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 5.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 12 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Usually helps when consumers feel better than expectedConfident consumers borrow more.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +1.3% · Two weeks later +6.1% · Rose on 14 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, FNMA moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 6.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
More mortgages get written.
Typical for the Mortgage Finance industry
On the day 0.0% · A week later +1.8% · Two weeks later 0.0% · Rose on 15 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, FNMA moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.0% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Businesses borrow more when they are growing.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +5.6% · Two weeks later +3.7% · Rose on 22 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, FNMA moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 3.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expectedEmployed people repay loans and borrow more; banks benefit.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +8.6% · Two weeks later +11.7% · Rose on 16 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, FNMA moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 11.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is due in 5 days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually helps when hiring comes in stronger than expectedEmployed people repay loans and borrow more; banks benefit.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.6% · A week later +7.5% · Two weeks later +11.1% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, FNMA moved -0.6% on average on the day and was 11.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
More card swipes and consumer borrowing when spending is strong.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +5.6% · Two weeks later +3.7% · Rose on 22 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, FNMA moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 3.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Unemployment rate is due in 5 days.
Unemployment rateUsually hurts when unemployment rises more than expectedMore missed loan payments and less borrowing; lower rates also thin banks' margins.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.7% · A week later +8.0% · Two weeks later +11.3% · Rose on 17 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Unemployment rate reports since Jul 6, 2023, FNMA moved -0.7% on average on the day and was 11.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections9 links · 1 confirmed
Direct connections · 9 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
PMT · Partnerpartner-1.42%Confirmed · manual
ABR · Partnerpartner-0.98%Rumored · manual
ABR-PD · Partnerpartnernot pricedRumored · manual
RITM · Partnerpartner+0.11%Rumored · manual
RITM-PB · Partnerpartnernot pricedRumored · manual
UWMC · Customercustomer0.00%Rumored · manual
BLK · Competitorcompetitor+1.20%Rumored · manual
STT · Suppliersupplier+0.14%Rumored · manual
MSFT · Suppliersupplier+3.66%Rumored · manual
1 of 9 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.