Deep dive · NasdaqGS: FFIN
First Financial Bankshares, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on First Financial Bankshares, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Street and Trend are pulling against each other and the split is genuine rather than a formality. The net lands at +2 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.43, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
analyst moves, earnings, sentiment vote up. 3 of 5 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
insider flow vote down. 2 of 5 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Street against Trend.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are long gamma, so their hedging absorbs moves rather than amplifying them; separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −3.6%; and the binding position cap is 3.2% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean0.00%
FrankfurtFI60.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 1 overseas venue listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Wall Street rating
Hold
+11% to the average target
17% buy · 83% hold · 0% sell
median target $36
median target $36
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $33.80 · -4.0%
200-day $32.13 · +1.0%
200-day $32.13 · +1.0%
Earnings
In 25 days
22 Oct 2026 · options imply ±12.3%
beat 3–4 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 53% · n=38,466
cohort P(beat) 53% · n=38,466
Valuation
15.1× forward
13th of its own five-year range
5yr median 22×
Dividend
2.71%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
1 on watch
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 0.52 · vol 17% ann.
worst drawdown -17%
worst drawdown -17%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does107 chars
First Financial Bankshares, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides banking services in the United States.
NasdaqGS · USDRegional Banks
$32.45+0.28 · +0.87%CLOSED · vol 844.8K
52-week range↑ 15% off low · ↓ 11.1% off high
$28.12now $32.45$36.52
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Jul 7, 2026
Survival & solvency
and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 6/7CLEAR
Piotroski F-score 6 of 7. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetJul 7, 2026
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
41st pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldISSUING
-0.08%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.00%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
83 / 100
0 critical · 1 watch · 2 clear of 3 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.01long-term debt 0.01× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCLEARF 6/7Piotroski F-score 6 of 7 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 1 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026GOOD · 71/100
Business quality
41% net margin, 13% return on equity, +15% revenue growth.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
71 / 100GOOD
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
41.1%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
13.2%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Revenue (TTM)+15% YoY
$635.28M
Trailing twelve-month revenue from the latest filings.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-1.9%
3 months-5.9%
6 months+11.9%
Year to date+8.1%
1 year-4.6%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+14.9%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
+13.5%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+0.3%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 41%
41 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsJul 16, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
53%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 3–4 OF THE LAST 8
4 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
36%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
40%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±2.6%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missSYMMETRIC
+1.3% / -0.2%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
2.71%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
>2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.09 over 40 bars
Morning star · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%-0.1%134,105
21d49%-0.1%63,238
63d49%-0.3%20,225
3-bar bottom reversal
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,216,877
21d51%+0.1%572,733
63d52%+0.3%181,607
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,247,184
21d50%0.0%586,365
63d51%+0.3%185,394
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Rectangle
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%0.0%221,317
21d48%0.0%103,709
63d50%0.0%32,594
horizontal range
Near support · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%536,115
21d53%+0.2%251,312
63d54%+0.4%78,900
testing recent support
0313TH OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $32.45, 15.1× forward earnings, RSI 42, and dealers long gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed1 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $33.80 · 200-day $32.13. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Up 0.87% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
42
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±1.9%
$0.61
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.04
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position28% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$32.83
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$31.92
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
22 Oct 2026 · in 25 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 28 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
53 / 46cohort n=21,665
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Low0.59× segment rate · n=2,115
Historically, bank names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 33% of cases (n=2,115).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-0.9σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$32 – $323 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $32.22, Sma 200 at $32.13, Pivot low at $32.11.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
5 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 0 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 46% of cases (n=21,665) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
0.53pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months15.1×5yr median 22×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported17.4×13th of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth2.01
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit7.5×5yr median 9.1×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets2.4×
2 of the 5 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1 + sma 200
$32.29Approach
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetBb upper + sma 50 + vwap 50
$33.76$34–$34
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$31.06risk $1.22/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
1.20:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+4.2%
short-term trend line · $33.80
To the 200-day
-1.0%
primary trend line · $32.13
To the put wall
+7.9%
heaviest put open interest · $35.00
To the call wall
-7.6%
heaviest call open interest · $30.00
To the composer's target
+4.0%
Bb upper + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $33.76
To the composer's stop
-4.3%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $31.06
To the 52-week high
+12.5%
highest print of the past year · $36.52
To the 52-week low
-13.3%
lowest print of the past year · $28.12
Options-implied week ±12.3%
$28.45 – $36.45
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$31.84 – $33.06
±$0.61 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $32.29 · stop $31.06 · target $33.76, a 1.20:1 ratio. The composer flagged: target inside one week's move.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 27, 2026
Signal
Long gamma — moves get absorbed.
Dealers hedge against the move, which damps volatility around the current strikes. It makes the tape quieter without saying anything about which way it goes.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-10-16 · Chain · Sep 27, 2026
Max pain-7.6%
$30.00
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.31
76% calls
24% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.13
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $4.00
±12.3%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$30.00CALL12
$35.00CALL3
$35.00PUT3
$45.00CALL1
$30.00PUT1
$25.00PUT1
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-10-16CallsPutsMax pain $30.00
1
$45.00
00
$40.00
03
$35.00
312
$30.00
10
$25.00
10
$22.50
0
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$36.52+12.5%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$30.00-7.6%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$30.00-7.6%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$33.80+4.2%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$35.00+7.9%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 72%, short interest is 6.60% of float, and 5 analysts average $36.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+2BALANCED · 30d
3 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
+1
1 price-target raise in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+1
3 of the prior 4 quarters beat
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($524,250 across 13 sells) in 120d
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (100/100)
Signal
3 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 4 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 26, 2026
Signal
3 of 5 families lean up.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.43 means the disagreement is a genuine split.
Wall Street5 covering firms
Consensus rating5 ANALYSTS
Hold
17% buy · 83% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 5 covering firms.
Median price target+11%
$36
$35now $32$39
A $35–$39 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$2.16
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Hovde Group$36↑64/100
Piper Sandler$35↑57/100
Cantor Fitzgerald$35↑48/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
72.1%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
3.6%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
6.60%
Rising — shares short changed +7.8% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float96% OF SHARES
136.86M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)72nd PCTILE
$24.23M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Longhofer T. Luke · EVP - Chief Credit OfficerOption exercise$23,760—08 Sep
Longhofer T. Luke · EVP - Chief Credit OfficerOption exercise$31,770—08 Sep
Longhofer T. Luke · EVP - Chief Credit OfficerOption exercise$23,760—08 Sep
Longhofer T. Luke · EVP - Chief Credit OfficerGiftnot on file—09 Sep
Longhofer T. Luke · EVP - Chief Credit OfficerOption exercise$31,770—08 Sep
Denny Michael B. · DirectorBuy$103,980—18 Aug
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
+0.87%
FFIN rose +0.87% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “CABA,TRIN,RPC,FFIN,NXRT,GO,BLCO,CULP,VSNT,VIRC,KWY,FRST,ENTX,BLIN,GRNT,SSP,GAIA,NRGV,AFCG,APCX,THRY,KLTR,BETR | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison - Yahoo! Finance Canada” (Yahoo! Finance Canada).
News tone · 7-day—
100 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 50 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
21h agoCABA,TRIN,RPC,FFIN,GO,NXRT,CULP,BLCO,VSNT,KWY,FRST,VIRC,ENTX,BLIN,GRNT,SSP,PCF,GAIA,NRGV,AFCG,APCX,THRY,KLTR,BETR | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
SatRPC,TRIN,HERZ,FFIN,NXRT,GO,BLCO,CULP,VSNT,FRST,VIRC,KWY,ENTX,BLIN,GRNT,SSP,GAIA,AFCG,NRGV,APCX,THRY,KLTR,BETR | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
SatTRIN,FFIN,VIRC,ENTX,GRNT,GAIA,AFCG,NRGV,THRY,AUBN,BETR,NTHI,SRAD,EFOR,HERZ,AVBC,NXRT,GO,CULP,BLCO,VSNT,BLIN,SSP,APCX,KLTR | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
SatTRIN,FFIN,VIRC,GRNT,GAIA,NRGV,AFCG,THRY,BETR,AUBN,NTHI,HERZ,EFOR,SRAD,NXRT,GO,AVBC,BLCO,CULP,VSNT,BLIN,SSP,AWRE,APCX,KLTR | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
SatTRIN,FLUT,FFIN,BBSI,VIRC,GRNT,GAIA,AFCG,AUBN,BETR,NTHI,EFOR,HERZ,SRAD,AVBC,NXRT,BLCO,CULP,VSNT,BLIN,SSP,CSPI,AWRE,APCX,KLTR | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
FriTRIN,FFIN,FLUT,BBSI,VIRC,GRNT,GAIA,AFCG,BETR,AUBN,NTHI,HERZ,EFOR,SRAD,NXRT,AVBC,BLCO,CULP,VSNT,BLIN,SSP,CSPI,AWRE,APCX,KLTR | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
FriTRIN,FFIN,BBSI,VIRC,XZO,GRNT,GAIA,AFCG,AUBN,BETR,NTHI,EFOR,SRAD,HERZ,NXRT,AVBC,CULP,BLCO,VSNT,BLIN,SSP,CSPI,AWRE,APCX,KLTR | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
FriCABA,TRIN,RPC,FFIN,NXRT,GO,BLCO,CULP,VSNT,VIRC,KWY,FRST,ENTX,BLIN,GRNT,SSP,GAIA,NRGV,AFCG,APCX,THRY,KLTR,BETR | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Evenly split.
3 of 6 disclosures are buys and 3 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0511 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.52, 17% annual volatility, a -17% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−3.6%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−7.8%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.4×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.4×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-17.3%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.52
The market explains about 7.7% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
17%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure61
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($524,250 across 13 sells) in 120d120d · -1
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company typeRouted as: Bank
Signal
Routed as Bank.
Failure modes are routed by company type, and the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are the validated ones. This name routes as Bank, so the 2 checks above are that cohort's, not a generic list.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 44.2% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 3.2% is the number (n=19,953). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 25 days, and the chain prices ±12.3% for the week.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
20 logged
20 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on FFINTHIS NAME
20
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksREGIONAL BANKS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+4.4% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (tailwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
MFGPeer$11.07+4.83%
HDBPeer$23.01+0.79%
MZHOFPeer$57.27+8.06%
IBNPeer$27.92+0.14%
USBPeer$59.33+1.59%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
2 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 26, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
More defaults and less borrowing.
Typical for the Regional Banks industry
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +0.4% · Rose on 92 of 170 report days
Across the last 170 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, FFIN moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 12 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Usually helps when consumers feel better than expectedConfident consumers borrow more.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later 0.0% · Rose on 25 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, FFIN moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 0.0% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedSmaller banks pay more on deposits right away but earn more on loans only slowly.
Typical for the Regional Banks industry
On the day -0.3% · A week later -0.6% · Two weeks later -0.3% · Rose on 16 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, FFIN moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 0.3% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
More mortgages get written.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later 0.0% · Two weeks later -0.5% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, FFIN moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.5% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Businesses borrow more when they are growing.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +0.2% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, FFIN moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expectedFewer loan defaults and more borrowing when hiring is strong.
Typical for the Regional Banks industry
On the day -0.1% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +1.0% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, FFIN moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 1.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is due in 5 days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually helps when hiring comes in stronger than expectedFewer loan defaults and more borrowing when hiring is strong.
Typical for the Regional Banks industry
On the day -0.2% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, FFIN moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedSmaller banks pay more on deposits right away but earn more on loans only slowly.
Typical for the Regional Banks industry
On the day -0.3% · A week later -0.6% · Two weeks later -0.3% · Rose on 16 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, FFIN moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 0.3% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
BLK · Competitorcompetitor+1.20%Rumored · manual
STT · Suppliersupplier+0.14%Rumored · manual
MSFT · Suppliersupplier+3.66%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.