Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG) — $256.95 −2.59%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

FERGpeers & supply-chain relationships

FERG fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated not on fileVol 269.5K · Avg 1.53M
FERGFerguson Enterprises Inc.$256.95-2.59%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

1 of 5 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 3. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+2net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · balanced
Bull 2 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
1 of 5 aligned — not yet
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on fileCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 0.8× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$262.46
basis · s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$268–272
center $269.59 · basis · daily pivot + high 52w · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~64% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.0× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.18× · 269.5K vs 1.53M avg
52-week range$207.64 – $271.64
Below high since 2021-2.9% · $271.64 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.9
Plan stop$242.75
Max pain
RSI 1472.7 overbought
Forensic flags2 review
What-if price
$256.95
$195.74 · -23.8%-23.8%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+6.5% · $273.64+6.5%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers1 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
72.7
overbought
vs 50-day
$233.80
above the line · fires near $235.52
Bollinger
$214.17
no lower pierce · fires near $210.66
VWAP 20
$249.55
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $249.29
Entry level
$262.46
below the model level
Put wall
not on file
MACD
+3.03
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.18×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
1.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$8.35
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
not on file
Next dividend
1.39% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed