Fastenal Company (FAST) — Industrial Distribution. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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FAST fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 10, 2026 · 1:15 PM ETVol 1.34M · 3-mo avg 7.30M

Fastenal Company (FAST)

FASTFastenal Companyloading…
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QTick signal
+4net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 7 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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$54.28
near a support level · Nov 9
$55.03
near a heavy call-option level, a resistance level, the 52-week high and a round-number price · midpoint $55.03 · Nov 9
±$0.06
±0.1% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
In line
67% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.0× the usual rate
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Trading volume72% below normal0.28× its 20-day average
Past year's range$38.97 – $54.99lowest to highest price
From its peak0.8% belowpeak $54.99, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.10 to 1$0.10 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$50.82the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$55.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)67.7fires under 35 · fires near $48.01
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit38.7× next year44.4× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 90%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 36.1×
Cash it generates1.7%of its market value, per year

Trading lighter than its own normal, price up 0.1%. Over the last 20 sessions, 32% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
67.7
fires under 35 · fires near $48.01
vs 50-day
●
$50.54
above the line · fires near $50.95
Bollinger
●
$50.04
no lower pierce · fires near $49.93
VWAP 20
●
$51.77
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $51.70
Entry level
✓
$54.28
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$35.00
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-10
MACD
Context✓
+0.20
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.28×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
3.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.39
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-01-19
in 46 sessions
Next dividend
1.90% yld
no ex-date on file