Fastenal Company (FAST) — Industrial Distribution. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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FAST fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 6.81M · 3-mo avg 7.57M

Fastenal Company (FAST)

FASTFastenal Companyloading…
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QTick signal
+3net
4 bull / 2 bear factors · leaning
Bull 5 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeOKPCE inflation days · ~15% smaller swingsOKNeutral tape · 5/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$50.18
basis · pivot low + s1 + put wall · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$52.92
center $52.92 · basis · high 52w + round · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$2.67
5.3% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
Low
0.71× the norm · 47% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.01×
52-week range$38.97 – $52.92
Below high since 2015-4.7% · $52.92 high
Risk / reward0.72 : 1
Plan stop$46.97
Max pain$50.00 options cluster
RSI 1456.0 fires under 35 · fires near $46.35
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple35.9× fwd · 43.1× trailing
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield1.8% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 0.6%. Over the last 20 sessions, 57% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
56.0
fires under 35 · fires near $46.35
vs 50-day
●
$49.36
above the line · fires near $49.84
Bollinger
●
$48.07
no lower pierce · fires near $47.85
VWAP 20
●
$49.47
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $49.46
Entry level
✓
$50.18
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$50.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-25
MACD
Context✓
+0.14
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
1.01×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
3.1%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.92
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-14
in 13 sessions
Next dividend
1.90% yld
no ex-date on file