Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) — Internet Retail. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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ETSY fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 10, 2026 · 1:31 PM ETVol 1.87M · 3-mo avg 3.31M

Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)

ETSYEtsy, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+6net
3 bull / 2 bear factors · moderate
Bull 10 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · Distress—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 9
$88.00
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 9 · price is already 4.5% below it
$97–99
near the 52-week high · midpoint $97.85 · Nov 9
±$0.09
±0.1% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
In line
96% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met)
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Trading volume9% below normal0.91× its 20-day average
Past year's range$44.00 – $97.85lowest to highest price
From its peak71.6% belowpeak $311.32, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk1.05 to 1$1.05 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$78.59the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$78.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)53.7fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit12.2× next year22.4× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 29%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 26.5×
Cash it generates8.2%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal. Over the last 20 sessions, 45% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 5 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
53.7
fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
vs 50-day
●
$79.70
above the line · fires near $80.41
Bollinger
●
$81.05
no lower pierce · fires near $80.26
VWAP 20
✓
$89.03
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$88.00
below the model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context✓
+0.07
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.91×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
14.6%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$4.70
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-25
in 72 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file