Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABAF) — $16.20 +7.07%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

BABAFpeers & supply-chain relationships

BABAF fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated not on fileVol 61.2K · Avg 37.3K
BABAFAlibaba Group Holding Limited$16.20+7.07%

SELL.

We're bearish on this stock — not a name to own here.

The net signal reads -4 — more evidence points down than up — and the 50-day average sits below the 200-day, 2 accounting red flags are raised in the filings. Buying a dip into that is catching a falling stock, not finding value; the read stands until the signal or the company's condition improves.

QTick signal
-4net
0 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 0 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
Bearish tape — sell
We're bearish on this stock — the tape and the structure both say so.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on fileCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 1.1× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$16.45
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$17–18
center $17.67 · basis · round + sma 200 · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~78% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.2× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg1.64× · 61.2K vs 37.3K avg
52-week range$12.60 – $23.99
Below high since 2023-31.1% · $23.99 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.4
Plan stop$12.58
Max pain
RSI 1460.0 fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
Forensic flags2 review
What-if price
$16.20
$12.96 · -20.0%-20.0%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+17.8% · $19.08+17.8%
Entry strategy · 10 triggersBearish tape — sell
RSI 14
60.0
fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
vs 50-day
$14.40
above the line · fires near $14.50
Bollinger
$13.40
no lower pierce · fires near $13.16
VWAP 20
$14.65
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $14.64
Entry level
$16.45
below the model level
Put wall
not on file
MACD
-0.22
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.64×
elevated versus recent average
Short int.Static
not on file
ATRStatic
$1.44
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
28 Aug 2026 · after the bell
amc · in 16 days
Next dividend
0.80% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed