Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABAF) — Internet Retail. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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BABAF fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 200 · 3-mo avg 182.4K

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABAF)

BABAFAlibaba Group Holding Limitedloading…
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QTick signal
-4net
0 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 0 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on fileCautionPCE inflation days · ~8% bigger swingsOKNeutral tape · 29/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$13.93
basis · pivot low · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$14.96
center $14.96 · basis · round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
—
not on file
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.33× the norm · 88% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (4/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.00×
52-week range$10.98 – $23.99
Below high since 2023-41.6% · $23.99 high
Risk / reward0.36 : 1
Plan stop$11.32
Max pain—
RSI 1448.8 fires under 35 · fires near $10.91
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple25.0× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield-18.5% · burning cash

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price up 1.5%. Over the last 20 sessions, 66% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

Bearish tape — sell
RSI 14
●
48.8
fires under 35 · fires near $10.91
vs 50-day
✓
$14.74
below the line
Bollinger
●
$12.54
no lower pierce · fires near $12.27
VWAP 20
✓
$14.19
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$13.93
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-0.20
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.00×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
—
not on file
ATRStatic
$1.57
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-24
in 43 sessions
Next dividend
0.93% yld
no ex-date on file