Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) — Discount Stores. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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DLTRpeers & supply-chain relationships

DLTR fair-value estimate

DLTR earnings history

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 17, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 3.15M · 3-mo avg 2.95M

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)

DLTRDollar Tree, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+11net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · strong
Bull 12 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafePCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 56/100 · as of 2026-09-17
Smart entry
$113.83
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-17
Target exit zone
$116–119
center $117.66 · basis · daily pivot + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$6.44
5.6% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 10% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
1.33× the norm · 88% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (0/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 10% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.09×
52-week range$84.71 – $142.40
Below high since 2015-32.8% · $170.20 high
Risk / reward0.31 : 1
Plan stop$103.96
Max pain$120.00 options cluster
RSI 1434.7 washed out
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple14.5× fwd · 13.8× trailing
P/E vs its own past10th pctile · 20.9× median
Free cash flow yield6.5% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 1.8%. Over the last 20 sessions, 65% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

5 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
34.7
washed out
vs 50-day
$126.46
below the line
Bollinger
$110.62
no lower pierce · fires near $109.32
VWAP 20
$124.24
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$113.83
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$120.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-16
MACD
Context
-1.87
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
1.09×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
3.9%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$4.78
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-12-02
in 53 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file