Deep dive · TXSE: DDS
Dillard's, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Dillard's, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Event and Trend are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at +4 over 30d, a leaning reading on a dispersion of 0.00, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
earnings, analyst moves vote up. 3 of 4 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
1 of 4 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Event against Trend.
What it changes
Size, not direction. separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −9.9%; and the binding position cap is 2.2% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean+1.71%
FrankfurtDL7A+1.71%⏱ZurichDL7A—⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 1 overseas venue listed above with a quote, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-11-06
Wall Street rating
Sell
-9% to the average target
0% buy · 33% hold · 67% sell
mean target $546
mean target $546
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $651.33 · -7.5%
200-day $604.40 · -0.3%
200-day $604.40 · -0.3%
Earnings
In 4 days
12 Nov 2026
beat 7–8 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 80% · n=36,342
cohort P(beat) 80% · n=36,342
Valuation
17.5× forward
74th of its own five-year range
5yr median 9×
FCF yield 6.63%
FCF yield 6.63%
Dividend
0.20%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 3 clear
beta 0.50 · vol 42% ann.
worst drawdown -27%
worst drawdown -27%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
TXSE · USDDepartment Stores
$602.38-19.79 · -3.18%CLOSED · vol 93.4K
52-week range↑ 20% off low · ↓ 18.8% off high
$503.06now $602.38$741.98
Quote Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
01Ratios · Jul 7, 2026NO SOLVENCY RISK
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 8.5 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 3 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
8.52SAFE ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 7, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
8.1σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.100%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 5/9
Piotroski F-score 5 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills2.65×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.31
Leverage · long-term debt / total assetsthe share of everything the company owns that long-term borrowing funds0.18
Net cashcash on hand in excess of every borrowing$303.90M
Free cash flow · TTMcash left after running and reinvesting in the business$754.62M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
39th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldSHRINKING
1.28%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
1.28%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
0.0%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
SBC / operating cash flowCOVERED
0%
How much of the cash the business generates is being handed to employees as stock. The higher it runs, the more of a buyback is just offsetting it.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
80 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 3 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 8.52Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.80M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.24long-term debt 0.24× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 5/9Piotroski F-score 5 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 3 clear and 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Nov 8, 2026FAIR · 55/100
Business quality
9% net margin, 32% return on equity, 0% revenue growth, and capital earning 36% against a 8% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
55 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Nov 8, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
8.7%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
40.3%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
10.5%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
32.1%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
28.4pp
Earns 36% on invested capital that costs about 8%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Asset growth vs peersIN LINE
37th pctile
The balance sheet grew -1% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-7.2%
3 months-5.0%
6 months+6.9%
Year to date-0.7%
1 year-2.0%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-0.4%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-1.1%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+10.3%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 44%
56 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 13, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
80%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 7–8 OF THE LAST 8
8 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
30%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±5.9%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missASYMMETRIC
+3.0% / -10.8%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
Sells the newsON THE PRINT
No
No habit of selling off on a good report in the measured window.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
0.20%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
1-2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Nov 6, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,533,785
21d48%0.0%720,839
63d50%+0.1%226,963
slope -0.01 over 40 bars
Evening star · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%151,235
21d49%0.0%70,920
63d49%0.0%22,210
3-bar top reversal
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%1,293,438
21d49%0.0%607,588
63d51%+0.2%191,671
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%1,001,589
21d49%0.0%470,024
63d52%+0.2%147,634
three troughs ≈ equal
0374TH OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $602.38, 17.5× forward earnings, RSI 38.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $651.33 · 200-day $604.40. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-11-04 → 2026-11-06
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 3.18% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
38
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±5.6%
$34.02
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-8.13
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position1% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$657.33
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$625.05
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
12 Nov 2026 · in 4 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number.
2026-11-10 · in 2 daysInflation (CPI)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
54 / 45cohort n=20,474
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.07× segment rate · n=12,180
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 85% of cases (n=12,180).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-2.0σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$531 – $5993 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $586.60, Pivot low at $556.59, Pivot low at $548.10.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
38 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 0 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 45% of cases (n=20,474) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
1.88pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareCASH BACKING
$2.45
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months17.5×5yr median 9×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported13.8×74th of its 5yr range
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit1.4×5yr median 0.9×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets5.3×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay9.9×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off14.6×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value6.63%
1 of the 7 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingNov 6, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$599.37In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetRound + sma 50 + vwap 50
$650.85$642–$659
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
StopTucked under the entry zone
$522.58risk $76.78/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.67:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+8.1%
short-term trend line · $651.33
To the 200-day
+0.3%
primary trend line · $604.40
To the composer's target
+8.0%
Round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Nov 6, 2026 · $650.85
To the composer's stop
-13.2%
Tucked under the entry zone · set Nov 6, 2026 · $522.58
To the 52-week high
+23.2%
highest print of the past year · $741.98
To the 52-week low
-16.5%
lowest print of the past year · $503.06
A typical day (ATR)
$568.36 – $636.40
±$34.02 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $599.37 · stop $522.58 · target $650.85, a 0.67:1 ratio. The composer flagged: earnings soon, low reward to risk.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +4
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 72%, short interest is 12.88% of float, and 3 analysts average $546.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+4LEANING · 30d
2 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
+1
2 price-target raises in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+3
latest EPS beat by 49%
Signal
2 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +4 over 30d, a leaning reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readNov 8, 2026
Signal
3 of 4 families lean up.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.00 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street3 covering firms
Consensus rating3 ANALYSTS
Sell
0% buy · 33% hold · 67% sell, as a share of the 3 covering firms.
Mean price target-9%
$546
$468now $602$650
A $468–$650 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$34.50
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
JP Morgan$519↑50/100
UBS$468↑50/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
72.0%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
31.6%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)CROWDED
12.88%
Falling — shares short changed -1.2% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float63% OF SHARES
7.33M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)86th PCTILE
$95.94M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
MUSGRAVE BRANT · CORPORATE VP STORESAward$4,793—26 Oct
MATHENY DRUE · Director, EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENTAward$6,847—26 Oct
DILLARD MIKE · Director, EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, 10% ownerAward$6,847—26 Oct
Dillard William T. III · Director, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENTAward$8,901—26 Oct
Jazic Annemarie · VICE PRESIDENTAward$4,108—26 Oct
Johnson Chris B. · SENIOR VICE PRESIDENTAward$6,847—26 Oct
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
-3.18%
DDS fell −3.18% in after-hours trading, amid recent coverage: “Dillard's Q3 Pre-Earnings: Is a Beat on the Horizon for the Stock? - TradingView” (TradingView).
News tone · 7-day—
61 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 49 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
10h agoWeak Quarterly Results Might Change The Case For Investing In Dillard's Stock (DDS) - Simply Wall StSimply Wall Stnot scored
SatDillard's Inc (DDS) Shares Fall 3.2% -- GF Value Says Still Over - GuruFocusGuruFocusnot scored
FriDillard's Q3 Pre-Earnings: Is a Beat on the Horizon for the Stock? - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
FriDillard's Q3 Pre-Earnings: Is a Beat on the Horizon for the Stock? - TradingViewTradingViewnot scored
ThuDDS: Weak sales and lower FY24 earnings, alongside substantial shareholder returns - TradingViewTradingViewnot scored
ThuDillard's (DDS) Nears Its Q3 Report, Is The Stock Already Above Fair Value? - Simply Wall StSimply Wall Stnot scored
TueDillard's Inc (DDS) Shares Fall 6.0% -- What GF Score of 81 Tells Investors - GuruFocusGuruFocusnot scored
TueDillard's Unlikely to Provide Annual Guidance in Q3 Financial Report, UBS Says - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net selling.
0 of 1 disclosures are buys and 1 is a sale. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0517 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.50, 42% annual volatility, a -27% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−9.9%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−16.9%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.4×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.4×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-27.0%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.50
The market explains about 2.6% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
42%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure63
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
13.9%1.5× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 1.5× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 27.2% · tail cap 2.2% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.2% is the number (n=92,785). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 4.8% against a 14.4% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.44% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.20% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 4 days.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.2% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record17 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
51 logged
51 calls logged on this name, 17 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
0610-K disclosed linksDEPARTMENT STORES
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 2 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-1.2% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
RYKKFPeer$26.710.00%
MCompetitor$23.08-4.59%
PLBLPeer$5.35+3.28%
KSSPeer$23.04-3.60%
LAAIPeer$2.250.00%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
3 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Inflation (CPI)
2026-11-10. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockNov 4, 2026
Retail sales is due in 9 days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expectedTheir own sales are in the report.
Typical for the Department Stores industry
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 23 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, DDS moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Fewer paychecks means less spending at stores, restaurants and dealers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 84 of 172 report days
Across the last 172 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, DDS moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Housing starts is due in 10 days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expectedHomebuilders and home-improvement chains sit in this sector.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +1.3% · Two weeks later +0.7% · Rose on 24 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, DDS moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
A stronger economy means more consumer spending.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 23 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, DDS moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI) is due in 5 days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expectedHigher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +2.4% · Rose on 17 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, DDS moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 2.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 12 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Usually helps when consumers feel better than expectedPeople spend more when they feel confident.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later -0.6% · Two weeks later -0.2% · Rose on 23 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, DDS moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 0.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Higher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.6% · A week later -1.1% · Two weeks later -0.8% · Rose on 15 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, DDS moved -0.6% on average on the day and was 0.8% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI) is due in 2 days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedHigher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +1.3% · Two weeks later +2.2% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, DDS moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 2.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections2 links · 1 confirmed
Direct connections · 2 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
NKE · Suppliersupplier-2.45%Rumored · manual
M · Competitorcompetitor-4.59%Confirmed · manual
1 of 2 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.