Deep dive · NGM: CNTA
Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — CNTA trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart here
Valuation
-22.8× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield -3.10%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 2 clear
worst drawdown 0%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does179 chars
Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc, together with its subsidiaries, discovers, develops, and delivers orexin-based neuroscience therapeutics in the United Kingdom and the United States.
NGM · USDBiotechnology
$40.500.00 · 0.00%CLOSED · vol 11.27M
52-week range↑ 206% off low · ↓ 0.1% off high
$13.22now $40.50$40.56
Tape 2026-06-29
01Ratios · Jul 16, 2026NO SOLVENCY RISK
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 20.3 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
20.27SAFE ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 16, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
8.5σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.100%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 4/8
Piotroski F-score 4 of 8. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills8.57×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.22
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.16
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$57.08M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
90th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldISSUING
-0.34%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.00%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueELEVATED
206.4%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
75 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 2 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 20.27Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.21long-term debt 0.21× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/8Piotroski F-score 4 of 8 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 26, 2026FAIR · 48/100
Business quality
-1,317% net margin, -37% return on equity, and capital earning -43% against a 10% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
48 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 26, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
-1,316.9%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
-1,384.6%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-37.5%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-53.6pp
Earns -43% on invested capital that costs about 10%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
9.4%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Asset growth vs peersIN LINE
71st pctile
The balance sheet grew +19% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Growth & relative strength
Data unavailableNot enough price and filing history to compute growth or relative strength for this name.
Around earningsMay 5, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
39%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT ≤2 OF THE LAST 8
2 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 0 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus bias0.64× COHORT
Persistent
consensus runs high for this name — it usually falls short
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,479,705
21d49%0.0%695,010
63d51%+0.1%220,093
slope +0.02 over 40 bars
Dragonfly doji · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d36%0.0%507,560
21d40%0.0%237,486
63d44%0.0%73,638
long lower shadow, open=close near high
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,216,877
21d51%+0.1%572,733
63d52%+0.3%181,607
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%975,500
21d52%+0.2%458,215
63d54%+0.5%144,909
three peaks ≈ equal
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,247,184
21d50%0.0%586,365
63d51%+0.3%185,394
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%964,809
21d50%0.0%453,015
63d52%+0.3%142,744
three troughs ≈ equal
Ascending triangle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%646,584
21d51%+0.1%303,544
63d53%+0.5%96,103
flat resistance, rising support
52w breakout · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%195,888
21d46%0.0%91,765
63d52%+0.2%28,677
at/near 52-week high
Near resistance · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%530,198
21d52%+0.2%248,435
63d54%+0.4%78,078
testing recent resistance
Rsi overbought · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d40%0.0%265,199
21d42%0.0%124,339
63d46%0.0%39,280
RSI 81 ≥ 70
03-22.8× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $40.50, -22.8× forward earnings.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Pivots (classic)
$40.50R1 $41 · S1 $41
The last settled session's range projected forward. Reference levels, not predictions — after a big gap they can sit on the wrong side of the price until the next close.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-06-14 → 2026-06-29
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 0.00% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
DeMark countdownFLAT SETUP
0 of 9
Counts consecutive closes against the prior trend. A completed 9 often marks exhaustion.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
46 / 53cohort n=3,987
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.00× segment rate · n=80,992
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 79% of cases (n=80,992).
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 2 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 53% of cases (n=3,987) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-0.38
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/EAnalysts expect a loss over the next twelve months, so there are no earnings for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit417.8×5yr median 217.8×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets11.9×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value-3.10%
3 of the 3 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. 1 is marked not meaningful because the figure it divides into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableThis security is delisted, so there is no live tape to compose entry, target and stop against.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -3
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 97%, short interest is 1.74% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-3LEANING · 30d
0 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-3
latest EPS missed by 28%
Signal
0 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -3 over 30d, a leaning reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
96.9%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.7%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
1.74%
The share of the tradable float sold short.
Free float60% OF SHARES
92.48M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)84th PCTILE
$76.78M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved on Sep 27, 2026NONE
flat
We don't have a fresh enough quote for CNTA to measure its move since the last close.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0510 graded calls
Risk & track record
a 0% worst drawdown, and 1 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
0.0%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
What votes againstNightly
HighEarningslatest EPS missed by 28%4 quarters · -3
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Avoid score6-month distress
0.6%0.1× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
LowPosition sizeThe sizing model has not covered this name, so no defensible cap is published for it.Not scored
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
HighCash runwayAbout 1.3 quarters of cash at current burn ($61M cash against $194M a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 28.6% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
1 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 1 clear. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
Our track record10 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
24 logged
24 calls logged on this name, 10 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on CNTATHIS NAME
24
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 10.
0610-K disclosed linksBIOTECHNOLOGY
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 1 connection.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-0.3% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
VRTXPeer$526.19+0.73%
REGNPeer$788.04-1.00%
ARGXPeer$959.49-0.28%
RVMDPeer$204.97+2.56%
ALNYPeer$255.96+2.55%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 25, 2026
Initial jobless claimsLittle effect either way
Healthcare demand does not depend on hiring.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +2.1% · Two weeks later +3.7% · Rose on 78 of 157 report days
Across the last 157 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, CNTA moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 3.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Little effect either way
People need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later +4.0% · Two weeks later +4.4% · Rose on 20 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, CNTA moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 4.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 12 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Little effect either wayLittle direct link.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +1.8% · Rose on 20 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, CNTA moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 1.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Little effect either wayPeople need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +1.0% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +3.1% · Rose on 15 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, CNTA moved +1.0% on average on the day and was 3.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Little effect either way
People need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +3.5% · Two weeks later +3.7% · Rose on 19 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, CNTA moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 3.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
FOMC decisionLittle effect either way
Healthcare demand does not depend on rates.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +1.5% · A week later +0.9% · Two weeks later +5.1% · Rose on 17 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, CNTA moved +1.5% on average on the day and was 5.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
On the day -0.1% · A week later +1.5% · Two weeks later +1.8% · Rose on 15 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, CNTA moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 1.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionLittle effect either way
Healthcare does not track the business cycle.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later +1.9% · Two weeks later +3.4% · Rose on 22 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, CNTA moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 3.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections1 link · none confirmed
Direct connections · 1 edge
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
CRL · Suppliersupplier-0.54%Rumored · manual
0 of 1 edge is named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
What it depends on
CRLSuppliersupplier
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.