CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) — $10.48 −3.94%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

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CNH fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 16.04M · Avg 12.24M
CNHCNH Industrial N.V.$10.48-3.94%

WAIT.

The triggers line up — but the move is nearly spent.

3 of 5 entry triggers are firing, but the shown price sits within $0.27 of the $10.68 target reference — the reward left no longer covers the $9.35 stop's risk. Chasing the last stretch buys the worst of the trade.

QTick signal
+3net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
3 of 5 aligned — not yet
Triggers aligned, but the target is one swing away — the move is nearly spent.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on filePCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$10.43
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$10.68
center $10.68 · basis · daily pivot + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~78% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.2× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg1.31× · 16.04M vs 12.24M avg
52-week range$9.00 – $13.31
Below high since 2015-48.0% · $20.17 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.2
Plan stop$9.35
Max pain
RSI 1446.7 fires under 35 · fires near $9.23
Forensic flags2 review
What-if price
$10.48
$9.18 · -12.4%-12.4%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+10.3% · $11.56+10.3%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers3 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
46.7
fires under 35 · fires near $9.23
vs 50-day
$10.64
below the line
Bollinger
$10.08
no lower pierce · fires near $9.98
VWAP 20
$10.83
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$10.43
within 1% of model level
Put wall
not on file
MACD
-0.01
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.31×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
8.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.54
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
9 Nov 2026 · before the bell
bmo · in 89 days
Next dividend
0.95% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed