Deep dive · OTC Markets OTCPK: CIXPF
CaixaBank, S.A. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on CaixaBank, S.A. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — CIXPF trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $14.72 · +4.9%
200-day $12.96 · +19.1%
200-day $12.96 · +19.1%
Earnings
In 33 days
30 Oct 2026
cohort P(beat) 61% · n=139,854
Valuation
19.3× forward
Against consensus earnings
Dividend
3.76%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 0.22 · vol 12% ann.
worst drawdown -19%
worst drawdown -19%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does167 chars
CaixaBank, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services for individuals and businesses in Spain, Portugal, and internationally.
OTC Markets OTCPK · USDRegional Banks
$15.440.00 · 0.00%CLOSED · vol 100
52-week range↑ 56% off low · ↓ 2.5% off high
$9.90now $15.44$15.84
Quote Sep 24, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01
Survival & solvency
and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 4/7WATCH
Piotroski F-score 4 of 7. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 27, 2026
Your ownership stake
Data unavailableShare-count history for this name is not on file, so dilution, buyback yield and stock-comp intensity cannot be computed. They appear once two annual filings are parsed.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
67 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 1 clear of 3 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageWATCHLTD/E 1.28long-term debt 1.28× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/7Piotroski F-score 4 of 7 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCLEAR0 flagsno filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026POOR · 40/100
Business quality
35% net margin, 15% return on equity, -1% revenue growth.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
40 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
35.1%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
15.3%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+0.5%
3 months+11.9%
6 months+30.6%
Year to date+26.7%
1 year+53.8%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-1.1%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)MARGINS WIDENING
+9.2%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+64.9%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 15%
85 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earnings
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — no measured print on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Next reportIN 33 DAYS
30 Oct 2026
Reports amc · consensus EPS $0.23 · revenue 4.3 B
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
3.76%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
1-2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,132,432
21d47%-0.1%531,932
63d48%-0.7%170,248
slope +0.10 over 40 bars
Dragonfly doji · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d36%0.0%507,560
21d40%0.0%237,486
63d44%0.0%73,638
long lower shadow, open=close near high
Tweezer top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%0.0%324,295
21d47%0.0%152,024
63d50%0.0%48,500
matching highs
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,216,877
21d51%+0.1%572,733
63d52%+0.3%181,607
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,247,184
21d50%0.0%586,365
63d51%+0.3%185,394
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Descending triangle · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%506,531
21d48%0.0%238,519
63d49%0.0%75,354
flat support, falling resistance
Rsi overbought · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d40%0.0%265,199
21d42%0.0%124,339
63d46%0.0%39,280
RSI 75 ≥ 70
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%764,373
21d45%0.0%357,385
63d47%0.0%112,620
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
0319.3× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $15.44, 19.3× forward earnings, RSI 74.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2003 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $14.72 · 200-day $12.96. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-25 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 0.00% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)OVERBOUGHT
74
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±0.1%
$0.02
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.04
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position69% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$15.36
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$15.79
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
30 Oct 2026 · in 33 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 6 Sept; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Low0.67× segment rate · n=3,608
Historically, bank names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 37% of cases (n=3,608).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
0.7σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$14 – $141 support
Where prior demand appeared: Evt 1m q95 at $14.38.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
2.11pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months19.3×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported16.1×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit6.4×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets2.8×
1 of the 4 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of evt 1m q95
$14.38Approach
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
Target52-week high
$15.84$16–$16
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$14.28risk $0.11/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
13.47:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-4.7%
short-term trend line · $14.72
To the 200-day
-16.0%
primary trend line · $12.96
To the composer's target
+2.6%
52-week high · set Sep 25, 2026 · $15.84
To the composer's stop
-7.5%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $14.28
To the 52-week high
+2.6%
highest print of the past year · $15.84
To the 52-week low
-35.9%
lowest print of the past year · $9.90
A typical day (ATR)
$15.42 – $15.46
±$0.02 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $14.38 · stop $14.28 · target $15.84, a 13.47:1 ratio.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 25%.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Institutional ownership
24.9%RETAIL-HEAVY
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
The QTick signal
Data unavailableNo factor in the model scored for this name, so there is no net signal to show. The signal appears once the nightly factor run covers it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
49.4%
The share held by the people running the company.
Free float50% OF SHARES
3.50B
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)7th PCTILE
$726/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved on Sep 25, 2026NONE
0.00%
CIXPF was little changed +0.00% since the last close — no notable catalyst, and the move itself was modest.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.22, 12% annual volatility, a -19% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−5.4%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−11.0%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.4×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.4×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-18.7%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.22
The market explains about 0.8% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
12%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure49
Buying pressure0
Overheat22
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as bank, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
4.6%tail cap binds
max defensible size 4.6% - tail binds
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 115.7% · tail cap 4.6% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 4.6% is the number (n=36,784). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 33 days.
Our track record0 resolved
Calls on CIXPFTHIS NAME
0
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksREGIONAL BANKS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+1.7% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (tailwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
MFGPeer$11.07+4.83%
HDBPeer$23.01+0.79%
MZHOFPeer$57.27+8.06%
IBNPeer$27.92+0.14%
USBPeer$59.33+1.59%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Inflation (CPI) reactionn=39
0.79×
On these days it moves about 0.8× the market, regardless of company news.
Jobs report reactionn=40
0.97×
On these days it moves about 1.0× the market, regardless of company news.
Fed decision (FOMC) reactionn=39
1.34×
On these days it moves about 1.3× the market, regardless of company news.
Inflation (PCE) reactionn=39
0.88×
On these days it moves about 0.9× the market, regardless of company news.
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 27, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
More defaults and less borrowing.
Typical for the Regional Banks industry
On the day -0.1% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +1.7% · Rose on 19 of 170 report days
Across the last 170 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, CIXPF moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 1.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedSmaller banks pay more on deposits right away but earn more on loans only slowly.
Typical for the Regional Banks industry
On the day +0.4% · A week later +2.2% · Two weeks later +2.5% · Rose on 5 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, CIXPF moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 2.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
More mortgages get written.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +1.1% · A week later +1.9% · Two weeks later +2.4% · Rose on 6 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, CIXPF moved +1.1% on average on the day and was 2.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Businesses borrow more when they are growing.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +2.6% · Rose on 3 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, CIXPF moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 2.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expectedFewer loan defaults and more borrowing when hiring is strong.
Typical for the Regional Banks industry
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.9% · Two weeks later +1.6% · Rose on 3 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, CIXPF moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 1.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedSmaller banks pay more on deposits right away but earn more on loans only slowly.
Typical for the Regional Banks industry
On the day +0.4% · A week later +2.2% · Two weeks later +2.5% · Rose on 5 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, CIXPF moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 2.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expected
Smaller banks pay more on deposits right away but earn more on loans only slowly.
Typical for the Regional Banks industry
On the day +0.5% · A week later +1.3% · Two weeks later +2.1% · Rose on 7 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, CIXPF moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 2.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
More card swipes and consumer borrowing when spending is strong.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +2.6% · Rose on 3 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, CIXPF moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 2.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
BLK · Competitorcompetitor+1.20%Rumored · manual
STT · Suppliersupplier+0.14%Rumored · manual
MSFT · Suppliersupplier+3.66%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.