Cameco Corporation stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Cameco Corporation. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
200-day $105.80 · -13.4%
cohort P(beat) 53% · n=38,388
worst drawdown -37%
Cameco Corporation provides uranium for the generation of electricity in the Americas, Europe, and Asia.
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 10.0 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 5 of 5 forensic checks clear.
Business quality
17% net margin, 9% return on equity.
Price & timing
Price $91.62, RSI 40.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Entry $92.34 · stop $85.37 · target $94.50, a 0.31:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 70%.
Independent factors scored and netted to +1 over 30d, a balanced reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
3 of 6 disclosures are buys and 3 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
Risk & track record
Beta 2.17, 46% annual volatility, a -37% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 18 connections.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
The strike where most options expire worthless.
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.