Deep dive · NYQ: AXIA-PC
Axia Energia stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Axia Energia. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — AXIA-PC trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart here
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 on watch
5 checks run, 3 clear
worst drawdown -9%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does145 chars
AXIA Energia SA, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization of electricity in Brazil.
NYQ · USDRenewable Utilities
$10.12-0.23 · -2.22%CLOSED · vol 796.5K
52-week range↑ 35% off low · ↓ 22.4% off high
$7.51now $10.12$13.04
Quote Aug 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-08-14
Tape 2026-08-14
01
Survival & solvency
and 3 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 6/9WATCH
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 27, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.68×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.65
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$60.85B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
38th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE A
88 / 100
0 critical · 1 watch · 3 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.66M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.52long-term debt 0.52× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 6/9Piotroski F-score 6 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCLEAR0 flagsno filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 3 clear and 1 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026FAIR · 42/100
Business quality
16% net margin, 6% return on equity, +3% revenue growth, and capital earning 8% against a 7% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
42 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
15.9%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
87.8%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
32.2%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
5.5%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
0.3pp
Earns 8% on invested capital that costs about 7%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-2.1%
3 months-9.2%
6 months-12.6%
Year to date+4.4%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+2.7%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-100.0%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
Around earnings
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — no measured print on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,479,705
21d49%0.0%695,010
63d51%+0.1%220,093
slope -0.04 over 40 bars
Hanging man · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.2%162,356
21d48%-0.2%76,200
63d49%-0.3%24,370
long lower shadow, small body at top
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,216,877
21d51%+0.1%572,733
63d52%+0.3%181,607
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%964,809
21d50%0.0%453,015
63d52%+0.3%142,744
three troughs ≈ equal
Ascending triangle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%646,584
21d51%+0.1%303,544
63d53%+0.5%96,103
flat resistance, rising support
03
Price & timing
Price $10.12, RSI 45.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Momentum (RSI-14)
45COOL
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
The setup right now
Price · 157 sessions2025-12-30 → 2026-08-14
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 2.22% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Typical day (ATR-14)±5.0%
$0.51
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.02
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position62% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$9.89
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$9.37
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Pivots (classic)R1 $10 · S1 $9
$9.34
The last settled session's range projected forward. Reference levels, not predictions — after a big gap they can sit on the wrong side of the price until the next close.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.00× segment rate · n=45,352
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 66% of cases (n=45,352).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.5σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
5.22pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-26.36
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported9.8×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.6×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets0.2×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay23.2×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off7.0×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value52.04%
1 of the 6 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableThis security is delisted, so there is no live tape to compose entry, target and stop against.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 1%.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Institutional ownership
1.0%RETAIL-HEAVY
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
The QTick signal
Data unavailableNo factor in the model scored for this name, so there is no net signal to show. The signal appears once the nightly factor run covers it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.0%
The share held by the people running the company.
Free float74% OF SHARES
1.66B
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)42nd PCTILE
$937,163/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved on Sep 25, 2026PEER COMOVE
-2.22%
AXIA-PC fell −2.22% since the last close alongside 3 of 3 peers (median 2.39%) — a sector/market move, not company-specific.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded calls
Risk & track record
a -9% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-8.7%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Avoid score6-month distress
0.7%0.1× its cohort · thinly-traded small-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this thinly-traded small-caps segment: 7.5%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
LowPosition sizeThe sizing model has not covered this name, so no defensible cap is published for it.Not scored
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
8 logged
8 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on AXIA-PCTHIS NAME
8
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksRENEWABLE UTILITIES
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 1 connection.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Next macro catalyst
Job Openings (JOLTS)IN 2 DAYS
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
AXIA-PPeer$10.74-1.74%
BEPPeer$28.35+0.28%
AXIAPeer$10.22-2.39%
ENLTPeer$69.47+0.87%
FRVOPeer$15.18-9.16%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2025-12-30
Signal
Every backward window is negative.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Events · what moves this stockSep 24, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Utilities trade like bonds and rise when rates fall.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +1.1% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 16 of 30 report days
Across the last 30 Initial jobless claims reports since Jan 8, 2026, AXIA-PC moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedUtilities pay steady dividends much like bonds, so when rates rise on hot inflation investors sell them.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day +1.0% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 3 of 7 report days
Only 7 reports on file, so treat this as a sketch, not a pattern. Across the last 7 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jan 28, 2026, AXIA-PC moved +1.0% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.4% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Utilities pay steady dividends much like bonds, so when rates rise on hot inflation investors sell them.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day -1.1% · A week later -0.7% · Two weeks later +1.2% · Rose on 4 of 7 report days
Only 7 reports on file, so treat this as a sketch, not a pattern. Across the last 7 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jan 12, 2026, AXIA-PC moved -1.1% on average on the day and was 1.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Renewable projects are built on borrowed money; higher rates hurt.
Typical for the Renewable Utilities industry
On the day -0.7% · A week later +1.0% · Two weeks later -0.7% · Rose on 2 of 7 report days
Only 7 reports on file, so treat this as a sketch, not a pattern. Across the last 7 FOMC decision reports since Jan 31, 2026, AXIA-PC moved -0.7% on average on the day and was 0.7% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.5% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Utilities pay steady dividends much like bonds, so when rates rise on hot inflation investors sell them.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day -1.1% · A week later -0.7% · Two weeks later +1.2% · Rose on 4 of 7 report days
Only 7 reports on file, so treat this as a sketch, not a pattern. Across the last 7 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jan 12, 2026, AXIA-PC moved -1.1% on average on the day and was 1.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedUtilities pay steady dividends much like bonds, so when rates rise on hot inflation investors sell them.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day +1.0% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 3 of 7 report days
Only 7 reports on file, so treat this as a sketch, not a pattern. Across the last 7 PCE inflation reports since Jan 28, 2026, AXIA-PC moved +1.0% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.4% on those days.
10y / 30y Treasury auction is due in 10 days.
10y / 30y Treasury auctionUsually hurts when demand for the bonds is weakUtilities trade like bonds and fall with them.
Typical for the Utilities sector
No price history on file yet for AXIA-PC around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Industrial productionUsually hurts when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Utilities fall when a strong economy lifts rates.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day -0.4% · A week later +2.1% · Two weeks later +1.7% · Rose on 2 of 7 report days
Only 7 reports on file, so treat this as a sketch, not a pattern. Across the last 7 Industrial production reports since Jan 15, 2026, AXIA-PC moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 1.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections1 link · none confirmed
Direct connections · 1 edge
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
ELET · Competitorcompetitornot pricedRumored · manual
0 of 1 edge is named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
Named competitors
ELETCompetitorcompetitor
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.