Deep dive · NYSE: AMRZ
Amrize Ltd stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Amrize Ltd. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tapeOverseas lean+1.37%
ZurichAMRZ+0.07%⏱StockholmAMRZ0.00%⏱FrankfurtJ0J+2.28%⏱MéxicoAMRZN+3.11%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 4 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-18
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $46.03 · -18.4%
200-day $52.69 · -28.8%
200-day $52.69 · -28.8%
Earnings
In 37 days
27 Oct 2026
beat ≤1 of the last 5
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,760
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,760
Valuation
12.7× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield 6.92%
Dividend
1.17%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
3 on watch
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 1.33 · vol 26% ann.
worst drawdown -42%
worst drawdown -42%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does162 chars
Amrize AG engages in the provision of various building solutions for infrastructure, commercial, and residential construction markets in North America and Canada.
NYSE · USDBuilding Materials
$37.54-0.65 · -1.70%CLOSED · vol 6.16M
52-week range↑ 0% off low · ↓ 43.1% off high
$37.38now $37.54$65.94
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-18
Factors 2026-09-18
Tape 2026-09-18
Factors 2026-09-18
01Ratios · Jul 7, 2026
Survival & solvency
and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Distance to default (Merton)
4.6σCOMFORTABLE
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
Balance sheetJul 7, 2026
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.29%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 4/9
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.64×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.48
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$4.42B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
57th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
0.1%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.09%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
70 / 100
0 critical · 3 watch · 2 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 2.53Altman-Z in the Grey · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.50M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.37long-term debt 0.37× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/9Piotroski F-score 4 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 3 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 19, 2026POOR · 35/100
Business quality
10% net margin, 9% return on equity, +1% revenue growth, and capital earning 8% against a 10% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
35 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 19, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
10.0%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
25.7%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
16.1%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
8.9%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-1.8pp
Earns 8% on invested capital that costs about 10%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
17.4%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-15.9%
3 months-30.0%
6 months-28.6%
Year to date-32.3%
1 year-28.1%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+1.0%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-7.2%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-14.8%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 14%
14 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 6, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
39%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT ≤1 OF THE LAST 5
1 of 5
Its own record against consensus. 5 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 5 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus bias0.64× COHORT
Persistent
consensus runs high for this name — it usually falls short
Next reportIN 37 DAYS
27 Oct 2026
Reports amc · consensus EPS $1.09 · revenue 3.9 B
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
1.17%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 20, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,260,321
21d48%0.0%593,656
63d47%-0.5%186,156
slope -0.28 over 40 bars
Three black crows · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%310,689
21d50%0.0%146,312
63d49%-0.4%46,362
three falling red bars
52w breakdown · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d36%0.0%136,161
21d37%0.0%63,764
63d42%0.0%19,694
at/near 52-week low
Rsi oversold · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%0.0%224,994
21d48%0.0%106,081
63d50%0.0%33,395
RSI 23 ≤ 30
0312.7× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $37.54, 12.7× forward earnings, RSI 23.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $46.03 · 200-day $52.69. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 313 sessions2025-06-23 → 2026-09-18
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 1.70% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)OVERSOLD
23
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±2.9%
$1.09
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.32
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position4% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$42.06
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$42.99
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
27 Oct 2026 · in 37 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 12 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-25 · in 5 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
54 / 46cohort n=21,630
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Elevated1.06× segment rate · n=502
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 70% of cases (n=502).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.8σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$37 – $372 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Low 52w at $37.38, S1 at $37.30.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
60 / 100Hot selling
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 0 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 46% of cases (n=21,630) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
0.88pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-7.80
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months12.7×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported16.8×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit1.7×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.5×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay8.9×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off17.6×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value6.92%
0 of the 7 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 18, 2026
Entryzone of 52-week low + S1
$37.35In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
Target52-week high
$65.13$65–$65
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$35.18risk $2.17/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
12.80:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+22.6%
short-term trend line · $46.03
To the 200-day
+40.4%
primary trend line · $52.69
To the composer's target
+73.5%
52-week high · set Sep 18, 2026 · $65.13
To the composer's stop
-6.3%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 18, 2026 · $35.18
To the 52-week high
+75.7%
highest print of the past year · $65.94
To the 52-week low
-0.4%
lowest print of the past year · $37.38
A typical day (ATR)
$36.45 – $38.63
±$1.09 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $37.35 · stop $35.18 · target $65.13, a 12.80:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, far target.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -3
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 51%, short interest is 1.86% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-3LEANING · 30d
0 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-3
latest EPS missed by 9%
Signal
0 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -3 over 30d, a leaning reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
51.5%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
7.4%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
1.86%
Rising — shares short changed +14.6% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float89% OF SHARES
493.20M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)89th PCTILE
$132.65M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayPEER COMOVE
-1.70%
AMRZ fell −1.70% since the last close alongside 2 of 2 peers (median 1.39%) — a sector/market move, not company-specific.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net buying.
2 of 2 disclosures are buys and 0 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0513 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.33, 26% annual volatility, a -42% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−7.4%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−18.6%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementHEAVY TAIL
1.5×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.5×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-42.3%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
1.33
Moves about 1.3× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
26%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Hot selling
Selling pressure73
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: hot_selling — Selling pressure is elevated — down-volume has dominated 5 of the last 5 sessions; structure is not yet broken.
What votes againstNightly
HighEarningslatest EPS missed by 9%4 quarters · -3
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
6.5%0.7× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.7× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 53.5% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 3.3% is the number (n=15,197). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 2.4% against a 8.0% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
MedPost-earnings driftMove already priced: after jumps this large, measured drift edge is zero.Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
HighRestatement history1 restatement in 2 years. The flagged-company base rate is 6.2× the unflagged one.Integrity
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -42%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 26% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You're already heavy in this market
A 1.33 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 37 days.
Our track record13 resolved
Overall hit-rate13 RESOLVED
100%
Every call is timestamped and graded when it resolves.
Calls on AMRZ13 CORRECT
36
This name's own record, shown separately because a handful of calls is a small sample against the overall total.
0610-K disclosed linksBUILDING MATERIALS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-159.8% per +1ppMEASURED
Measured against the 10-year yield: a one-point move in the yield has come with about a 159.8% move here, independent of company news.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
CRHPeer$86.15-0.63%
VMCPeer$240.83-1.50%
MLMPeer$490.64-0.77%
CXMSFPeer$1.050.00%
CXPeer$10.06-1.28%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2025-06-23
Signal
Every backward window is negative.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 5 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 16, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
A slowing economy uses less steel, copper and chemicals.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later -0.1% · Two weeks later -0.4% · Rose on 28 of 61 report days
Across the last 61 Initial jobless claims reports since Jul 3, 2025, AMRZ moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 0.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 10 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually helps when inflation runs hotter than expectedMiners and chemical makers sell raw materials whose prices rise with inflation.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later -1.1% · Rose on 9 of 15 report days
Across the last 15 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2025, AMRZ moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 1.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 10 days.
PCE inflationUsually helps when inflation runs hotter than expectedMiners and chemical makers sell raw materials whose prices rise with inflation.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later -1.1% · Rose on 9 of 15 report days
Across the last 15 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2025, AMRZ moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 1.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
A hawkish Fed lifts the dollar, which makes dollar-priced metals dearer for foreign buyers.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later -0.8% · Two weeks later -0.2% · Rose on 5 of 14 report days
Across the last 14 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2025, AMRZ moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 0.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Lumber, cement and gravel.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +1.7% · Two weeks later +0.3% · Rose on 8 of 14 report days
Across the last 14 Housing starts reports since Jul 21, 2025, AMRZ moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
More building and manufacturing means more demand for raw materials.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day -0.8% · A week later -0.5% · Two weeks later -0.4% · Rose on 3 of 14 report days
Across the last 14 Industrial production reports since Jul 16, 2025, AMRZ moved -0.8% on average on the day and was 0.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 9 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expectedA busy economy uses more steel, copper and chemicals.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +1.1% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later -1.3% · Rose on 9 of 14 report days
Across the last 14 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2025, AMRZ moved +1.1% on average on the day and was 1.3% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is due in 12 days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually helps when hiring comes in stronger than expectedA busy economy uses more steel, copper and chemicals.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later -0.7% · Two weeks later -1.7% · Rose on 8 of 14 report days
Across the last 14 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2025, AMRZ moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 1.7% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
CAT · Suppliersupplier+1.30%Rumored · manual
DD · Customercustomer+0.43%Rumored · manual
BHP · Competitorcompetitor-0.34%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.