Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) — Semiconductor Equipment & Materials. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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AMBApeers & supply-chain relationships

AMBA fair-value estimate

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Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 1:15 PM ETVol 616.1K · 3-mo avg 1.83M

Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA)

AMBAAmbarella, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+1net
1 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafePCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 40/100 · as of 2026-09-18
Smart entry
$66.37
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-17 · price is 1.8% inside the zone below it
Target exit zone
$68–70
center $69.04 · basis · daily pivot + round + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$10.05
15.4% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 10% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
1.21× the norm · 96% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 10% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.92×
52-week range$48.30 – $96.69
Below high since 2015-71.7% · $236.75 high
Risk / reward0.29 : 1
Plan stop$57.05
Max pain$65.00 options cluster
RSI 1445.8 fires under 35 · fires near $58.78
Forensic flags3 review
Earnings multiple58.5× fwd · trailing n.m.
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield2.0% · of market value

Trading in line with its own normal, price down 2.6%. Over the last 20 sessions, 62% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
45.8
fires under 35 · fires near $58.78
vs 50-day
$72.37
below the line
Bollinger
$61.24
no lower pierce · fires near $60.29
VWAP 20
$66.52
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$66.37
below the model level
Put wall
$60.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-16
MACD
Context
+0.04
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.92×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
10.4%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$4.39
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-12-01
in 51 sessions · session not on file
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file