Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) — Airlines. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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ALGT fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 459.2K · 3-mo avg 554.4K

Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)

ALGTAllegiant Travel Companyloading…
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QTick signal
+11net
3 bull / 0 bear factors · strong
Bull 13 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · Distress—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 3/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$78.63
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$85–87
center $86.06 · basis · round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$6.66
8.4% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.08× the norm · 85% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.91×
52-week range$57.11 – $123.63
Below high since 2015-70.8% · $270.62 high
Risk / reward0.91 : 1
Plan stop$71.44
Max pain$80.00 options cluster
RSI 1446.9 fires under 35 · fires near $72.57
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple67.4× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield5.2% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 2.9%. Over the last 20 sessions, 46% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
46.9
fires under 35 · fires near $72.57
vs 50-day
✓
$86.18
below the line
Bollinger
●
$73.52
no lower pierce · fires near $72.76
VWAP 20
●
$77.60
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $77.51
Entry level
✓
$78.63
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$55.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-21
MACD
Context✓
+1.00
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.91×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
14.5%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$3.39
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-04
in 29 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file
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