American International Group, Inc. (AIG)

The five reads

At a glance the decision-relevant reads, first

GLOBAL TAPE

Overseas lean-0.20%

FrankfurtAINN-0.06%⏱

MéxicoAIG*0.00%⏱

ZurichAIG0.00%⏱

StockholmAIG0.00%⏱

London0OAL-0.97%⏱

Track record · free & ungated

We grade our price-band calls in public

Each forward price band is logged the day it's set and scored when it resolves — misses included. 5 bands have resolved so far — not yet enough for a hit-rate that would mean anything, so none is shown. This builds in the open, not behind the paywall.

bands logged

resolved so far

Building

status

The calibration ledger stays free, always — a track record can't sit behind a paywall.

Price action

Price & quote

Live quote refreshed every 15 minutes against the full daily snapshot.

The readUnder pressurefact

Where the price sits inside today's range and its 52-week range, plus how it's performed over time. This is the raw quote — the same number everywhere, just faster.

◆ Death cross forming◇ Ascending channel50- and 200-day averages are converging — watch for a regime flip.

Drag or arrow-key the chart for daily OHLCV · 126 sessions through Aug 10, 2026 · prev close $77.61 (dashed) · live $77.55 hollow — not yet a settled bar

Open●

$77.05

Prev close●

$77.61

Volume●

656.1K

avg 3.90M

Rel. volume◐

0.17×

below normal

Market cap●

$40.35B

Shares out●

530.21M

float 528.44M

Day range

$76.89$78.02

52-week range ◐

$71.25$87.29

-11.2% from high+8.8% above low

The QTick signal

QTick proprietary signal

A transparent point tally — bull evidence minus bear evidence — read over ~30 days. Faster factors time the swing; slower ones (quality, 13F, forensics) weigh in as longer-horizon context. A model-based prior, not advice.

~30-day swing read · graded vs S&Puncalibrated prior · track record buildingstrength is the tally magnitude, not a probability

Price-factor lean cohort-relative · momentum + low-vol

Price-factor lean — not shown at this market cap (these factors carry no validated edge above small-cap).

Where this is validated: survivorship-free factor study (micro/small caps only), |t|>3.2. Cohort-relative ranking, not a price forecast or buy/sell advice. Calibration tracked live.

net · leaning

3 bull / 0 bear factors

Factor breakdown 8 factors · signed points sum to net +5●

Analyst moves90d+1 pts

1 analyst upgrade(s) in 90d

Earnings4 quarters+3 pts

latest EPS beat by 12%

Insider flow120d—

Estimate revisionsWeeks—

Sentiment1–30d+1 pts

7d sentiment elevated (90/100)

Longer-horizon context weighs the read · not a 30-day timing call

Institutional (13F)Latest 13F—

Quality / valueTTM—

Filing forensicsLatest FY—

Risk flagsDaily—

Net tally

7 bull − 2 bear

Factors agreeing

3↑ 0↓

of 9 tracked

Read strength

leaning

30d horizon

Strongest factor

Earnings

+3 pts

Model

QTick Engine

AIG track record

Building

5 of 14 resolved

Forensic flags filing red flags · backtested edge where shown●

Revenue-timing languagerevenue-recognition timing language worth watching

Cannot-estimate contingencyan unquantified legal/regulatory contingency the company says it cannot estimate

Territory — competitor / supplier graph ●

BRK-BPeer-1.5%

BRK-APeer-1.5%

SLFPeer-1.8%

HIGPeer-0.4%

ACGLPeer+0.1%

Where the reads agree

Cross-category read

A decorrelated view across the categories already scored elsewhere on this page — where they agree, where they conflict, and how lopsided the split is. Not a new signal, a different angle on ones that already exist.

Category reads n=4 categories voting

Streetleans up

Eventleans up

Trendleans down

Riskleans up n=4

3 lean up, 1 lean down — modal read: bull.

Where they conflict

Street leans up while Trend leans down.

Event leans up while Trend leans down.

Risk leans up while Trend leans down.

1 of 4 weighted reads lean the other way — minority weight share 6%.

↳ In detail

A pattern, not a validated signal

This regroups categories the page already scores elsewhere into one cross-category view — it does not add a new tally. Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar.

+5 net

leaning

3 bull / 0 bear factors

Red-Flag X-Ray

Accounting quality · red-flag scan

One integrity score (0–100) from a set of accounting checks that look for red flags. Higher is safer — and we show the checks it passed, not just the ones it failed.

/ 100

Integrity score

0 critical · 2 watch · 1 clear of 3 scored tests

1 clear2 watch0 critical2 n/a

Test battery ◐

––✓!!

5 forensic tests · 1 passed clean · 2 flagged for watch

–n/a

Bankruptcy distressn/a●

Altman-Z not available

–n/a

Earnings manipulationn/a●

Beneish-M not available

✓Clear

LeverageD/E 0.22●

debt-to-equity 0.22×

!Watch

Profitability qualityF 5/9●

Piotroski F-score 5 of 9

!Watch

Filing forensics2 flag(s)●

2 filing red flag(s) on the latest 10-K

How we test · 7 forensic testsA clear result ships as openly as a flag — and the tests that don't fire are published in full. No survivorship bias.

Share dilution / SBC creepFires when shares outstanding rise materially or stock-based comp outpaces buybacks.

Distress (Altman-Z, negative equity)Fires on balance-sheet fragility. For banks we substitute regulatory capital (CET1).

Margin trajectoryFires on multi-quarter gross / operating margin erosion.

Going-concern languageNLP scan of filings for material-doubt or going-concern wording.

Filing timelinessFires on late / NT (non-timely) filings and restatements.

Insider selling into strengthFires on discretionary insider sells during price strength; 10b5-1 plans down-weighted.

Analyst-downgrade momentumFires on clusters of net downgrades and target cuts.

Odds & pullback risk

Setup & odds

Which way the next move is more likely to go — and how overstretched the price looks right now.

The readSkews upsidewhere it sitsuncalibrated prior · not a forecast

How the likely upside compares with the downside, and how stretched the price is — odds, not timing.

Upside vs downside · 12m ◐

Upside 53.7%46.1% Downside

Skew favours upside · base rate 50/50

Historically, names tripping 0 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 46% of cases (n=20,692) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast. · n=20,692

Expected move · 1wk◐±—

Upside target◐$78.34 +1.0% · level, not a call

Invalidation / stop◐$76.97 -0.7% · level, not a call

Reward : risk◐1.4 : 1

BullClose above $78 opens continuation.

BaseChop between stop and target into the next catalyst.

BearA break of $77 invalidates the setup.

Pullback risk · experimental ◐

LowElevatedHigh

Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 64% of cases (n=7,012).

1.02×the segment norm — 64% saw a ≥10% pullback within 63dn=7,012 · observational

Resolved up vs down · 63d◐58% up · 42% down same historical group as the pullback read · 7,012 cases · flat outcomes count on neither side — a historical rate, not a call

Conditioned on◐neutral · mid vol · pos momentum the past setups matched against this one

1.02× the large unconditional rate
tape state: neutral
price 1.5σ from its 20-day mean

↳ In detail

How to read the odds

This is a historical rate, and an experimental one: across 25 years, stocks in the same state — same segment, same price phase, same volatility, same momentum — pulled back this often. The record is built from today's list of companies, so names that delisted along the way are missing and each stock's current segment is projected backward; the rates lean toward survivors until that rebuild lands. Compare the multiple against the segment rather than the bare percentage — recent years run higher than the full 25-year record. None of it predicts timing.

The structure under the price ●

Support band●$75.79 – $77.22 -0.4% from spot · level, not a call

s1●$76.97 basis

sma 200●$76.82 basis

pivot low●$76.63 basis

~68%of bands like this held 21 days after a touch — about the same as any comparable support level. Structure, not a prediction.n=40,800 · observational

Bottom confirmation●0 of 6 signs in find-bottom score 0/100 — pinned to 0 until the checklist clears

Capitulation flush, then quiet●not yet

Selling volume dried up●not yet

A higher low printed●not yet

Back above the 20-day line●not yet

Momentum diverging up●not yet

Heaviest volume on an up day●not yet

85%of confirmed bottoming reads still saw a ≥10% drawdown inside the next quarter (25-year study) — confirmation marks a turn forming, not safety.n=1,203 · observational

Trend & technical structure

Trend & technicals

The price chart's vital signs, in plain English. Expand any row for what it actually means for you.

The readUptrend intactwhere it sitsmoving-average posture · fact

Moving averages describe the direction; RSI and the bands describe how stretched the move is. Neither predicts the next one.

Average prices (the trend)

Price vs 200-day●+1.0%

Momentum, bands & levels

↳ In detail

The simple version

When price sits aboveits averages with momentum rising, the trend is healthy. When RSI is near the extremes or the price looks "stretched," the move is overdone and often takes a breather. Think of these as a weather report — conditions, not instructions.

Pattern outcomes · derived analysis

Do these patterns even work?

Derived · what patterns actually did

Every charting site detects the pattern. We publish what happened next — the forward win-rate and sample size at each horizon, including the famous patterns that historically meant nothing.

The readForward win-rates, with sample sizewhere it sits

How often each chart pattern was actually followed by a gain, and how many past cases that's based on — including famous ones that didn't work.

Each bar is the win-rate — how often the price was higher that many days after the pattern appeared. The line marks 50%, a coin flip: green beats it, red is worse than chance. Every bar is a platform-wide cohort base rateacross every stock that has shown this pattern (cohort record, not this ticker's own history alone).

Pattern10-day21-day63-day

UptrendBelow a coin flip

forward win-rate46.8%n=1,101,779

forward win-rate47.0%n=519,085

forward win-rate47.7%n=164,813

slope +0.06 over 40 bars

Spinning topBelow a coin flip

forward win-rate49.2%n=190,548

forward win-rate49.2%n=89,678

forward win-rate49.6%n=28,575

small body, shadows both sides

Three black crowsBelow a coin flip

forward win-rate50.4%n=304,805

forward win-rate49.9%n=143,406

forward win-rate49.2%n=45,155

three falling red bars

Double topBarely beats chance

forward win-rate49.6%n=1,183,531

forward win-rate50.7%n=556,186

forward win-rate52.2%n=176,667

two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks

Triple topBarely beats chance

forward win-rate50.1%n=947,988

forward win-rate51.7%n=445,085

forward win-rate53.6%n=141,009

three peaks ≈ equal

Double bottomBelow a coin flip

forward win-rate48.8%n=1,212,298

forward win-rate49.7%n=568,670

forward win-rate51.3%n=180,342

two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks

Ascending triangleBarely beats chance

forward win-rate50.1%n=628,840

forward win-rate51.2%n=294,972

forward win-rate53.1%n=93,557

flat resistance, rising support

Near supportBarely beats chance

forward win-rate51.2%n=521,264

forward win-rate52.6%n=244,102

forward win-rate54.0%n=76,580

testing recent support

Bollinger squeezeBelow a coin flip

forward win-rate43.2%n=736,993

forward win-rate44.4%n=345,291

forward win-rate46.9%n=109,950

bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending

Snapshot as of 2026-08-11

↳ In detail

Why we show you the losers

Famous reversal signals like a bullish engulfing have historically closed higher less than half the time at short horizons — below a coin flip. We publish the win-rate and the sample size on every cohort, so a 42-case base rate never masquerades as an 8,500-case one. Objective base rates, not forecasts.

Momentum & performance

Momentum / performance

Trailing returns and relative strength versus the benchmark.

The readIn linewhere it sitsRS percentile vs market

How the stock has returned, and whether it's beating the market. A strong run shows recent leadership — leadership reverses without warning.

Trailing returns

1-month◐-2.9%

3-month◐+2.0%

6-month◐+3.6%

Year-to-date◐-7.9%

1-year◐-0.7%

12-1 momentum◐+5.8%

Relative strength vs S&P 500

57.8

RS-rank
percentile vs market

laggingleading

Relative strength line (β-adj)◐-2.76

↳ In detail

What relative strength tells you

A rank of 57.8 means AIG has outpaced 57.8% of the market over the past year. That is what it has done, not a promise about what comes next — leadership can reverse without warning.

Risk profile

Risk

Volatility and sensitivity, regressed against SPY from adjusted bars — then the landmine check: what could actually go wrong here.

The readLow drawdown riskwhere it sitsvs the Financial Services segment base rate · observational

Beta is how much it moves with the market; volatility and the worst drop show how rough the ride has been. Historical context, not a position-size rule.

0.2%6-month large-drawdown risk vs 3.0% for its segment

Beta · 1-year◐

0.08

less sensitive

Beta · 3-year◐

0.51

Realized vol · 30d◐

23.0%

annualized

Max drawdown · 1y●

-17.0%

The drawdown read · 6-month, segment-graded

Where it sits0.1×

LowHigh

vs the Financial Services segment base rate · observational

0.2%6-month large-drawdown risk, vs 3.0% for its segment

Max drawdown, trailing year●-0.17 driver

Distance from 52-week high●-0.10 driver

Parkinson range volatility●0.21 driver

Log price (level)●4.35 driver

Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this Financial Services segment: 3.0%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.

Tape state & tail · nightly, adjusted bars

Neutral tape4/100

SettledKnifing

State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.

Selling pressure●61 elevated

−5.3%a 1-in-200 day for this name — 1.5× what a normal curve expects

Cannot-estimate contingency●flagged

↳ In detail

Reading risk

A beta of 0.08 means that, historically, a 1% move in the S&P has come with a ~0.08% move here. Realized vol ran 23% and the largest drawdown observed in the trailing year was 17% — both are what happened, not a bound on what can. The drawdown band above is observational — a risk sort against names of the same segment, blind to balance-sheet failures that never showed in the price.

Failure modes

Coverage

Data not available — failure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far (this name routes as unknown)

Macro sensitivity · derived analysis

How rates push this name

Derived · rates & regime

The 10-year yield is public. Its measured pull on this specific stock — and how it trades around the macro calendar — is the derived layer.

The readRises with rateswhere it sitshow it moved when rates moved · extremes trimmed

How much this stock actually moves when interest rates move, and how it behaves around big economic releases.

Sensitivity to 10Y yield ●

Per +1% in the 10Y yield+1.5%

−120+12

Rates are a Rises with rates for this name

Observations●504 rolling window

Fit · r²●n/a

Measured across 504 daily moves against the 10-year Treasury yield (FRED DGS10). Where the company-level link is weak or the sample is short, we fall back to the sector average rather than print a number we don't trust.

Behaviour around the macro calendar ●

CPI · vs a typical dayn=370.7×

FOMC · vs a typical dayn=380.9×

NFP · vs a typical dayn=391.0×

PCE · vs a typical dayn=380.8×

Latest print · 10-Year Treasury Yield (2026-08-07) read as a headwind for this name. 10-Year Treasury Yield came in cooler than trend, based on how its sector typically reacts -> a headwind for this name.

× = how much more this stock moves on each release day vs a normal day. Amber = outsized (≥1.4×). Context, not a directional call.

Volatility regime ◔

The volatility engine runs on market-wide risk channels, not on individual names, so there is no 1-year volatility percentile for this symbol. The realized-volatility and drawdown reads in the risk section are the per-name measures.

Valuation

Is the stock cheap or expensive? Each multiple is graded and explained in plain English.

The readLeans cheapwhere it sitsagainst its own 5-year range where we have it · standard bands otherwise

Price against earnings, sales, book value and cash flow. We mark the measures that don't apply rather than fake them.

What you pay for earnings

P/E (trailing)●Price ÷ last 12 months of profit; graded vs own 5y history when covered14.3×Rich

Forward P/E●Price ÷ next year's expected profit8.8×Cheap

PEG ratio◐Valuation set against expected growth — lower can look cheaper, but one cutoff is not a verdict0.23Cheap

Earnings yield◔Profit as a % of price, like a bond yield6.98%Cheap

Earnings yield − risk-free●Earnings yield minus the government-bond yield at the same date+2.55%Spread

Dividend yield●Annual indicated cash dividend as a % of price2.58%Income

What you pay for the business

Price / Sales●Price ÷ annual revenue; graded vs own 5y history when covered1.5×Rich

Price / Book◔Price ÷ net assets on the books0.98×Cheap

EV / EBITDA◔Whole-company value ÷ operating cash earningsn/an/a

EV / FCF◔Whole-company value ÷ positive free cash flown/an/a

Price / FCF◔Price ÷ free cash flow generatedn/an/a

FCF yield◔Free cash flow as a % of market valuen/an/a

P/E vs own 5y●Five-year median 10.3×79th pctRich

P/S vs own 5y●Five-year median 1.1×82th pctRich

EV/EBITDA and P/FCF need positive operating cash earnings to mean anything (and don't apply to banks, where leverage is the product) — so we mark them n/a rather than print a misleading number.

Peers today territory performance, for valuation context

BRK-BPeer-1.5%

BRK-APeer-1.5%

SLFPeer-1.8%

HIGPeer-0.4%

ACGLPeer+0.1%

Fundamentals & quality

Fundamentals / quality

How good is the underlying business? Scale, profitability and balance-sheet strength, graded.

The readPartial fundamentals readwhere it sitsreturn on capital vs its estimated cost of funding

Scale, profitability and balance sheet, with industrial return on capital compared directly with its estimated funding cost.

Scale & growth

Revenue · TTM◔Total sales over the last 12 months$26.62BScale

EPS · TTM◔Profit earned per share—Profit

Net margin◔Cents of profit kept per $1 of sales11.6%OK

Revenue growth◔Sales vs a year ago-1.8%Weak

EPS growth◔Profit-per-share vs a year ago—n/a

Margin trajectory◔Are profit margins widening or shrinking?n/an/a

Returns & balance sheet

ROE◔Profit generated on shareholders' equity7.5%Weak

ROIC●After-tax operating profit earned on the capital the business usesn/an/a

WACC●Estimated blended cost of debt and equityn/an/a

ROIC − WACC●Return on capital above or below its funding costn/an/a

Incremental ROIC · ~3y●What the last three years of new investment has actually earnedn/an/a

Gross / Op margin◔Profitability before & after operating costsn/an/a

Free cash flow◔Cash left after running & investingn/an/a

Cash self-funding◔Self-funding on trailing free cash flow, or months of cash left at the current burnn/an/a

Debt / Equity◔Gross borrowings vs equity — negative book equity is not gradeablen/an/a

Current ratio◔Can it cover near-term bills? Over 1.5 is healthyn/an/a

Last filed 2026-08-11

Inventory ledger

The stockroom

Data not available.

Segments & geography

Where the revenue lives

Data not available.

Credit & safety · derived analysis

Distance from insolvency

Derived · distance from default

Not the debt total — how far this company's asset value could fall before its debts get hard to cover, and how that distance ranks against its peers.

The read—where it sitspercentile vs solvency universe

How far the company sits from real financial distress, plus how it ranks against peers — more than a debt total tells you.

n/a

σ to default

n/amodel-implied probability of default ●

Filing-forensics flags

1/4

SafeGreyDistressAltman n/a

Model-implied, not a credit rating.It estimates how far the company's assets would have to fall before it couldn't cover its debts, using a standard model (Merton). Higher is safer. (risk-free rate n/a, one-year horizon, asset volatility from —)

Structural snapshot as of 2026-08-11

Distance-to-default band ●

distress · 0cautionsafe8σ+

Debt-service capacity

Interest coverage●n/a operating income / absolute interest expense

Long-term debt / assets●5.7% as filed; distinct from Merton D/V

↳ In detail

How to read these two ratios

The credit engine uses the same stored thresholds shown here: coverage at or below 1× cannot cover interest, while 8× or more is its comfortable band; long-term debt at 10% of assets or less is its light band, while 60% or more is its heavy band. Missing XBRL tags stay n/a.

Altman solvency ●

Not applicable. Altman Z-Score isn't defined for this business type. The Merton dial above still resolves.

Forensic accounting ●

1Validated forensic-accounting flag fired. Individual flag details are not carried by this endpoint.

Dilution radar · derived analysis

Are your shares being diluted?

Derived · ownership erosion

Raw share count is everywhere. The consequence — how fast the count is growing and where that ranks against peers — is the read that matters.

The read—where it sitsdilution percentile vs peers

How fast the share count is changing versus peers, with stock compensation, issuance and repurchases shown separately when covered.

5-year share-count CAGR ●

The CAGR needs annual filings roughly five years apart that both carry a share count. This name's filing history on file does not span that window, so no rate is published — the buyback and stock-comp rows below are measured independently and still hold.

Most-dilutive percentile vs peers

LeastMedianMost

0percentile100

Peer percentile●25th below median

Stock comp / revenue◔n/a not covered

Stock comp / OCF◔operating cash flown/a not covered

Gross buyback yield●+13.76% TTM repurchases / market value

Net buyback yield●+1.84% TTM repurchases minus issuance / market value

Diluted / basic share gap●0.9% latest fiscal-year per-share overhang proxy

SBC trend◔n/a up to five fiscal years

Shares outstanding · indexed 5y ●

Indexing needs an unbroken run of annual share counts across the same five-year window the CAGR uses. Where a year is missing — or the reported counts switch share class mid-series — the chart is withheld rather than drawn across the gap.

Analyst & estimates

Consensus, price targets, forward estimates, and the company's recent results versus consensus.

The read—where it sitswhere Wall Street sits · not QTick

Targets matter less than which way estimates are heading and how often the company beats them.

Consensus rating ◔

Hold

35 analysts · score n/a/5

Strong buy 5%Buy 32%Hold 64%Sell 0%Strong sell 0%

12-month price target

low $80.00now $77.55high $101.00

Mean target◔$89.00 (+14.8%)

Forward estimates & revisions

Forward EPS consensus●—

Revision breadth · 30d●—

Revision momentum●Raised 0.1% · 30d

Beat-rate · 8q●—

The consensus EPS level, the share of analysts raising, and the realised beat-rate all come from the same estimate capture, which does not cover this name. The rating, target band and street moves above are from a separate source and are current.

EPS surprise history ●

No reported-vs-estimate pairs on file for this name

Recent rating changes ●

Street moves · last 90 days ◔

↑target $81Barclaysfirm credibility 46/10007 Aug

↑target $90JP Morganfirm credibility 45/10020 Jul

↓target $80Piper Sandlerfirm credibility 43/10015 Jul

↑target $89Wells Fargofirm credibility 45/10009 Jul

Earnings bias · derived analysis

How this name behaves into the print

Earnings habit

The street's consensus-surprise habit — whether estimates run conservative or aggressive against what the company reports, not management's own guidance — the beat streak graded against names with the same profile, and what the tape does on good news.

The readSerial beaterwhere it sitsvalidated base rates · graded out-of-time

Whether the street sandbags this name, how often a beat streak like this persists (with its sample size), and what the tape does with good news.

80%of names with this beat profile beat againn=33,684 · observational

Consensus habit · trailing 8 quarters

Consensus-surprise habit●not management guidancebeats most quarters, by thin margins n=8

Trailing beat rate●88% beat 7–8 of the last 8 · n=8

80%of names that beat 7–8 of the last 8 went on to beat again — 1.28× the segment average (cohort record since 2000, not this stock alone)n=33,684 · observational

survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)

What the tape does with it

28%of the time it beat the estimate but fell anywayn=25 · observational

0%of the time it missed the estimate but rose anywayn=25 · observational

Avg reaction on a beat●+1.3% n=23

Avg reaction on a miss●-3.3% n=2

Earnings-day move · typical●±2.7% p90 ±6.6% · worst ±7.8% (2023-05-04) · n=25

Implied vs realized move●1.51× options overpriced the event · n=1

↳ In detail

How to read the habit

This is a historical rate: among companies with the same recent beat record, that share beat again. It was checked on later periods than the ones it learned from, and against the plain long-run average. It describes the group, not this specific report.

Ownership & positioning

Ownership

Who holds it, how options lean, and the most recent insider, congressional and 13F transactions.

The read—where it sitspositioning band · not a vote

Who owns it and what insiders and big funds are doing. Steady buying reads positive; heavy selling reads cautious.

Holders

Institutional●101.5%

Insider●0.6%

Institutional flow●—

Fund concentration●—

Activist stake●latest Schedule 13D block on fileFAIRHOLME CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC (13D/A, 2010-12-14)

Insider & short

Insider 90d net●—

10b5-1 vs discretionary◔scheduledMostly programmatic

Short interest · %float◔2.0%

Short interest · 30d Δ◔—

Options positioning

Put/call · OI●1.20

Put/call · volume●7.03

Implied move●next exp.±0.9%

IV skew (25Δ)●-8.7% call-skewed

↳ In detail

Reading the positioning

Institutional flow data unavailable. A put/call of 1.20 and call-skewed IV — leaning constructive.

Recent transactions Form 4 + congressional●

FilerSourceActionValueDate

Schaper ChristopherEVP, Chief Risk OfficerInsiderSell19600028 Jul

WITTMAN VANESSA AMESDirectorInsiderSell002 Jul

RICE JOHN GDirectorInsiderSell002 Jul

Porrino Peter RDirectorInsiderSell002 Jul

13F filers · last quarter ●

Institutional flow

Coverage

Data not available.

Options microstructure

Computed over the stored full chain — where dealer hedging concentrates. Prices here are the chain snapshot's own, not the header quote.

The readHedging leans amplifyingwhere it sitswhere options exposure sits

The busiest option strikes are where hedging is concentrated, which can slow or sharpen a move nearby. Context — not support and resistance.

Open-interest by strike · gamma walls ◐

Puts OI (k)Calls OI (k)

578

207

329

780WALL

340

198

WALL1200

568

870

chain spot $78.92 max pain $79 (+0.1%)

Dealer regime & expected move

Gamma exposure (GEX)

Negative

short

Max pain●$79.00 (+0.1%)

Put/call · OI●1.20

Call wall◐$81.00 resistance

Put wall◐$78.00 support

Expected move · session◐±2.3%

Expected move · week◐±5.0%

No nearby clusterPut-heavyShort gamma

↳ In detail

Reading the options chain

The book is skewed to puts — about 3.1K contracts of put open interest versus 2.5K calls across the strikes nearest spot (chain-wide P/C 1.20). That's heavy downside hedging: $78 is the put-OI wall — open-interest concentration that tends to act as support. Dealers are short gamma, so their hedging amplifies moves: max pain matters less here, and a push through the $81 / $78 walls can accelerate rather than fade. The chain is pricing about ±5.0% (≈ $3.98) over the coming week.

observational · not advice

Gamma map · derived analysis

Where dealer hedging concentrates

Derived · dealer hedging · marquee

Open interest is free everywhere. What it does — whether dealer hedging dampens or amplifies a 1% move, and the strikes where that hedging concentrates — is the derived read.

The readHedging may sharpen moveswhere it sitswhere dealer hedging sits

Whether dealer hedging leans toward steadying the price or sharpening the next move, and the strikes where that hedging is concentrated.

Support / resistance rails ◐

call wall · resistance$81

spot$78.92

put wall · support$76

Dealer regime ◐

Short gamma — hedging can sharpen moves

Net dealer gamma◐−$139,295 per 1% move

ATM implied vol◐0.4%

Expected move · 1d◐±2.3%

Expected move · 1w◐±5.0%

OTM IV skew (25Δ)◐-8.7% call-skewed

↳ In detail

Reading the gamma map

Dealers are short gamma, so their hedging amplifies moves — a push through $81.00 or $76.00 tends to accelerate, not fade. Net gamma of −$139,295 is the dollar hedging effect per 1% move — the consequence a raw chain never tells you.

Peers & supply chain

Territory · peers & supply chain

The names in this stock's orbit — how each is trading today, and how they wire together as suppliers, customers and competitors.

The readOutpacing groupfact

How nearby companies are trading. Moving with them is a sector story; breaking away is specific to this stock.

TickerRelationshipTodayRelative move

AIGThis stock-0.08%

BRK-BPeer-1.48%

BRK-APeer-1.46%

SLFPeer-1.77%

HIGPeer-0.38%

ACGLPeer+0.09%

↳ In detail

Outpacing its peers

AIG is +0.9% ahead of the peer average (-1.00%). Divergence from the group is where the stock-specific signal lives.

Supply map how the territory wires together●

competitorsupplier

Customer momentum

The customer chain

Data not available.

News & market context

The Story · news & social

Coverage published around the move, with the crowd's mood shown next to each.

The readCrowd mixedfactread as contrarian context

What moved the stock, plus how bullish the crowd is — which tends to be loudest right at the turning points.

Latest headlines 0▲ 0▼ of 43●

News

AIG fell −1.49% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “AIG Shares Fell After Q2 on Capital Commentary, RBC Says - marketscreener.com” (marketscreener.com).

Why it moved-1.49%·2026-08-11·source

Neutral

American International Group (NYSE:AIG) Stock Price Expected to Rise, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Analyst Says - MarketBeat

NEWSMarketBeat·3h ago

Neutral

Piper Sandler Forecasts Strong Price Appreciation for American International Group (NYSE:AIG) Stock - MarketBeat

NEWSMarketBeat·20h ago

Neutral

AIG Shares Fell After Q2 on Capital Commentary, RBC Says - marketscreener.com

NEWSmarketscreener.com·23h ago

Neutral

American International Group (AIG) Could Be a Great Choice - Yahoo Finance

NEWSYahoo Finance·Mon

Headline tone ◐

83/100 · 7-day

flat

Polarity of the headlines themselves, scored 0-100 with 50 neutral — a read on the coverage, not on the crowd.

Social sentiment ◐

No Reddit or StockTwits posts on file for this name in the last 7 days.

What this name did from here

Time machine

Each look-back point: the price then, the move to today, and what was going on — earnings, corporate events, news flow.

The readLower than a year agofact

The price at each look-back point and the move to today, with what was happening at the time — the per-ticker face of the track record.

Look-backs · vs the $77.61 close of 2026-08-10

3 months ago●$76.36 +1.6% to today

6 months ago●$75.00 +3.5% to today

1 year ago●$78.13 -0.7% to today

3 years ago●$60.42 +28.5% to today

history starts 2023-06-01

↳ In detail

Why we show the rear-view mirror

Every number on this page gets graded by what happens next. The time machine is the same idea pointed backwards: the state of this name at each past date and the move that followed, for any symbol — not a curated highlight reel.

Risk case · derived analysis

The risk case

The case against

What can break: how hard this name has fallen before, a sensible position cap, whether it behaves like a lottery ticket, how much cash it has left, how it drifts after earnings, whether the dividend holds, and what changed in the filings — plus a crowding read when its three inputs agree.

The readCoverage incompletewhere it sitsan experimental model estimate · the history-based reads below are graded separately

The case against the stock: how hard it has fallen before, how much cash it has left, how it behaves after earnings, whether the dividend holds, what changed in the filings, and how crowded the trade is.

Avoid score · v2.1 isotonic model · experimental

The nightly batch has not scored this name yet — the model needs universe-wide ranking features that are not computed on demand.

Terminal fate · the cohort's ledger

Of 1242 large names tracked 2016-2026, 0.2% were delisted for cause within 24 months and 3.0% were acquired — historical frequencies for the cohort, not a forecast for this name.

Cohort●large 2016-2026

12m outcomes●for-cause 0.1% [0.0%–0.2%] acquired 1.6% [1.3%–1.8%] · still listed 98.0% · n=1321

24m outcomes●for-cause 0.2% [0.1%–0.4%] acquired 3.1% [2.5%–3.7%] · still listed 96.0% · n=1242

36m outcomes●for-cause 0.4% [0.1%–0.7%] acquired 4.5% [3.6%–5.4%] · still listed 94.0% · n=1182

↳ In detail

Reading the fate ledger

Each row is what happened to every tracked name in this size cohort over that window — delisted for cause, acquired, or still listed — with the band around each rate. These are the cohort's historical frequencies, not probabilities for this name, and the acquisition arm is never an acquisition forecast.

Max defensible position size

4.0%max defensible size 3.9% - tail bindsn=29,742 · observational

Segment●large routing cohort

Vol tercile●low realized vol bucket

Momentum sign●pos trailing return direction

Half-Kelly●77.2% Kelly criterion / 2

Tail cap●3.9% VaR / CVaR limit

Cat cap●90.1% catastrophe-rate limit

Binding constraint●tail

Lottery profile

No lottery signal — trailing-21d max daily return is within the normal range for its cohort (large).

Cash runway · non-burner

Positive free cash flow — burner runway risk does not apply. Non-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).

Post-earnings drift · reaction vs sigma

+2.44% spread63-trading-day post-earnings drift, graded by reaction magnitude (bucket: 1-2)

Drift odds at full strength (+2.44% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).

Latest earnings reaction●-1.5% 2026-08-06

Daily sigma (21d)●1.45% baseline volatility used for z-score

Reaction size●1-2 first-day move ÷ its normal daily move

Strength of evidence●5.75 Newey–West t — how consistent the pattern is, not how many cases

↳ In detail

How post-earnings drift works

After an earnings reaction, how far price keeps drifting over the next 63 trading days depends on how big the first move was. A jump more than four times the stock's normal daily move usually spends the effect — the market has already repriced it. Milder reactions historically kept drifting, by about 3.2 percentage points in our sample.

Dividend reliability · evidence incomplete

Dividend yield●2.54% profile value · percentage points

FCF coverage●>2x free cash flow vs dividend

The calibration stores historical within-period yield-tercile cells but not the mapping for today's yield, so no cut or suspension probability is published.

Filing restatements

No material restatement on file in the trailing 2 years.

Calibration scorecard

Auditable track record

Every rating we publish is fingerprinted, tracked, and resolved in public. Here's how we've actually done.

calls logged
track record builds as calls resolve (5/8)

Resolved●

resolved, below the publication threshold

Open calls●

tracked, unresolved

AIG track record●

building

published once resolved

American International Group, Inc. ·

Price action

The QTick signal

Where the reads agree

Red-Flag X-Ray

Odds & pullback risk

Trend & technical structure

Do these patterns even work?

Momentum & performance

Risk profile

Failure modes

How rates push this name

Valuation

Fundamentals & quality

Inventory ledger

Segments & geography

Distance from insolvency

Are your shares being diluted?

Analyst & estimates

How this name behaves into the print

Ownership & positioning

Institutional flow

Options microstructure

Where dealer hedging concentrates

Peers & supply chain

Customer momentum

News & market context

What this name did from here

The risk case

Calibration scorecard