Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) — $98.25 −0.24%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

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ACGL fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 1.26M · Avg 2.18M
ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd.$98.25-0.24%Pre-market$98.70+0.46%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

2 of 5 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 3. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+3net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
2 of 5 aligned — closing in
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on filePCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$97.75
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$106–108
center $107.09 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~64% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.0× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.58× · 1.26M vs 2.18M avg
52-week range$82.45 – $107.09
Below high since 2015-15.6% · $116.47 high
Risk / reward1 : 1.7
Plan stop$92.40
Max pain
RSI 1445.0 fires under 35 · fires near $93.33
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$98.25
$92.89 · -5.4%-5.4%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+5.4% · $103.60+5.4%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers2 of 5 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
45.0
fires under 35 · fires near $93.33
vs 50-day
$97.08
above the line · fires near $98.04
Bollinger
$96.58
no lower pierce · fires near $96.10
VWAP 20
$101.08
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$97.75
within 1% of model level
Put wall
not on file
MACD
-0.74
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.58×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
3.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$2.68
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
26 Oct 2026 · after the bell
amc · in 75 days
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file
prices 15-min delayed