Deep dive · NMS: ACLX
Arcellx Inc stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Arcellx Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tapeOverseas lean0.00%
ZurichACLX0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 1 overseas venue listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart here
Wall Street rating
Hold
-3% to the average target
0% buy · 100% hold · 0% sell
median target $112
median target $112
Valuation
-77.7× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield -3.16%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 2 clear
worst drawdown 0%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does174 chars
Arcellx, Inc., together with its subsidiary, engages in the development of various immunotherapies for patients with cancer and other incurable diseases in the United States.
NMS · USDBiotechnology
$115.07+0.02 · +0.02%CLOSED · vol 13.19M
52-week range↑ 126% off low · ↓ 0.1% off high
$50.85now $115.07$115.13
Tape 2026-04-29
01Ratios · Jul 6, 2026SOLVENT · 1 FLAGGED
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 17.9 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
17.85SAFE ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 6, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
13.0σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.100%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreCRITICAL
F 1/8
Piotroski F-score 1 of 8. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills4.44×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.13
Net cashcash on hand in excess of every borrowing$28.34M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
89th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Stock-based comp / revenueELEVATED
349.5%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
62 / 100
1 critical · 1 watch · 2 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 17.85Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.11long-term debt 0.11× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCRITICALF 1/8Piotroski F-score 1 of 8 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 1 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 26, 2026POOR · 19/100
Business quality
-1,027% net margin, -57% return on equity, -79% revenue growth, and capital earning -65% against a 5% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
19 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 26, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
-1,027.3%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
-1,135.6%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-56.9%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-70.1pp
Earns -65% on invested capital that costs about 5%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
-42.6%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Asset growth vs peersIN LINE
17th pctile
The balance sheet grew -15% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+0.2%
3 months+68.6%
6 months+31.5%
Year to date+81.7%
1 year+77.8%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-79.4%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
Around earningsFeb 26, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
53%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 3–4 OF THE LAST 8
4 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
67%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
91%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±3.0%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,479,705
21d49%0.0%695,010
63d51%+0.1%220,093
slope +0.01 over 40 bars
Dragonfly doji · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d36%0.0%507,560
21d40%0.0%237,486
63d44%0.0%73,638
long lower shadow, open=close near high
Triple top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%975,500
21d52%+0.2%458,215
63d54%+0.5%144,909
three peaks ≈ equal
52w breakout · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%195,888
21d46%0.0%91,765
63d52%+0.2%28,677
at/near 52-week high
Near resistance · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%530,198
21d52%+0.2%248,435
63d54%+0.4%78,078
testing recent resistance
Near support · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%536,115
21d53%+0.2%251,312
63d54%+0.4%78,900
testing recent support
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%764,373
21d45%0.0%357,385
63d47%0.0%112,620
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
03-77.7× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $115.07, -77.7× forward earnings.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Pivots (classic)
$115.07R1 $115 · S1 $115
The last settled session's range projected forward. Reference levels, not predictions — after a big gap they can sit on the wrong side of the price until the next close.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-04-25 → 2026-04-29
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 0.02% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
DeMark countdownFLAT SETUP
0 of 9
Counts consecutive closes against the prior trend. A completed 9 often marks exhaustion.
2026-09-29 · in 3 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
46 / 53cohort n=3,987
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.00× segment rate · n=80,992
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 79% of cases (n=80,992).
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 2 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 53% of cases (n=3,987) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Net cash per shareCASH BACKING
$0.49
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/EAnalysts expect a loss over the next twelve months, so there are no earnings for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit302.1×5yr median 51.3×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets16.7×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value-3.16%
3 of the 3 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. 1 is marked not meaningful because the figure it divides into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableThis security is delisted, so there is no live tape to compose entry, target and stop against.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 90%, short interest is 4.19% of float, and 21 analysts average $112.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
0BALANCED · 30d
1 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+2
latest EPS beat by 3%
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
weak Piotroski F-score (1/8)
Signal
1 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to 0 over 30d, a balanced reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street21 covering firms
Consensus rating21 ANALYSTS
Hold
0% buy · 100% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 21 covering firms.
Median price target-3%
$112
$82now $115$120
A $82–$120 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
90.3%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
11.7%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
4.19%
The share of the tradable float sold short.
Free float73% OF SHARES
42.96M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)90th PCTILE
$166.41M/day
At this depth, position size is not a constraint for a retail account.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved on Sep 27, 2026NONE
flat
We don't have a fresh enough quote for ACLX to measure its move since the last close.
News tone · 7-day—
51 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 19 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
Aug 24Arcellx (ACLX) Latest Quarter: The Available Earnings Metric Delivers a Beat in Latest Trading ; Trading Response Is Still Pending - Book Value Growth - vinanet.vnvinanet.vnnot scored
Aug 23Arcellx (ACLX) Latest Quarter: EPS Exceeds Its Estimate ; Results Are Reported Without a Trading Signal - vinanet.vnvinanet.vnnot scored
Aug 23Arcellx (ACLX) Latest Quarter: EPS Exceeds Its Estimate ; Results Are Reported Without a Trading Signal - Positive Surprise Momentum - vinanet.vnvinanet.vnnot scored
Aug 17ACLX Q4 2025 Earnings: Narrower-Than-Expected Loss Reflects Clinical-Stage Discipline - Profit Margin Analysis - VinanetVinanetnot scored
Aug 16ACLX Q4 2025 Earnings: Narrower-than-Expected Loss Signals Cost Discipline - Revenue Guidance Update - VinanetVinanetnot scored
Aug 14Arcellx (ACLX): Paradigm BioCapital group files 13G/A showing 0% stake - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
Jul 28Trading Systems Reacting to (ACLX) Volatility - Stock Traders DailyStock Traders Dailynot scored
Jul 17Gilead extends Arcellx tender offer again - MSNMSNnot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0512 graded calls
Risk & track record
a 0% worst drawdown, and 1 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
0.0%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
What votes againstNightly
MedQuality / valueweak Piotroski F-score (1/8)TTM · -2
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Avoid score6-month distress
0.6%0.1× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
LowPosition sizeThe sizing model has not covered this name, so no defensible cap is published for it.Not scored
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
HighCash runwayAbout 1.5 quarters of cash at current burn ($80M cash against $213M a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 28.6% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
1 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 1 clear. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
Our track record12 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
24 logged
24 calls logged on this name, 12 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on ACLXTHIS NAME
24
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 12.
0610-K disclosed linksBIOTECHNOLOGY
The wider context
5 mapped peers.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+44.0% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
VRTXPeer$526.19+0.73%
REGNPeer$788.04-1.00%
ARGXPeer$959.49-0.28%
RVMDPeer$204.97+2.56%
ALNYPeer$255.96+2.55%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 3 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 25, 2026
Initial jobless claimsLittle effect either way
Healthcare demand does not depend on hiring.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later +1.3% · Rose on 73 of 149 report days
Across the last 149 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, ACLX moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 1.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Industrial productionLittle effect either way
Healthcare does not track the business cycle.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later -0.6% · Two weeks later -0.4% · Rose on 17 of 35 report days
Across the last 35 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, ACLX moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Little effect either way
People need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later -0.1% · Rose on 18 of 35 report days
Across the last 35 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, ACLX moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
On the day +0.3% · A week later -0.6% · Two weeks later -0.4% · Rose on 17 of 35 report days
Across the last 35 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, ACLX moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 12 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Little effect either wayLittle direct link.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.7% · A week later +1.0% · Two weeks later +2.7% · Rose on 21 of 34 report days
Across the last 34 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, ACLX moved +0.7% on average on the day and was 2.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Little effect either wayPeople need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +1.3% · Two weeks later +2.2% · Rose on 16 of 34 report days
Across the last 34 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, ACLX moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 2.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Little effect either way
People need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later +0.4% · Rose on 18 of 34 report days
Across the last 34 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, ACLX moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
FOMC decisionLittle effect either way
Healthcare demand does not depend on rates.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +1.3% · Two weeks later +2.5% · Rose on 16 of 34 report days
Across the last 34 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, ACLX moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 2.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections
Data unavailableNo competitor, partner, supplier or customer relationship is on file for this name yet.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.