Deep dive · NasdaqGM: VWAV
VisionWave Holdings, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on VisionWave Holdings, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tapeOverseas lean0.00%
Frankfurt2L90.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 1 overseas venue listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-18
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $1.76 · -85.1%
200-day $6.04 · -95.6%
200-day $6.04 · -95.6%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 0 clear
beta 2.02 · vol 170% ann.
worst drawdown -97%
worst drawdown -97%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NasdaqGM · USDAerospace & Defense
$0.26-0.10 · -28.20%CLOSED · vol 5.38M
52-week range↑ 1% off low · ↓ 98.3% off high
$0.26now $0.26$15.80
After-hours
$0.28+5.90%
Sep 18, 2026 · 4:19 PM ET
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · 11:04 AM ET
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
01Ratios · Sep 7, 2026
Survival & solvency
interest covered -46.1×, and 0 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Distance to default (Merton)
-0.4σSTRESSED
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
Balance sheetSep 7, 2026
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
9.47%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreNA
n/a
Piotroski F-score not available. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills0.19×healthy >2
Interest coverageoperating profit against the interest bill-46.1×healthy >5
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$3.58M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
61st pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE F
25 / 100
1 critical · 1 watch · 0 clear of 2 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCRITICALZ -14.42Altman-Z in the Distress · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageNAn/aLong-term debt / equity not available · fundamentals
Profitability qualityNAn/aPiotroski F-score not available · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 18, 2026POOR · 0/100
Business quality
56% return on equity.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
0 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 18, 2026
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
55.5%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Asset growth vs peersWATCH
98th pctile
The balance sheet grew +20,593% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-70.2%
3 months-92.6%
6 months-95.0%
Year to date-96.3%
1 year-96.6%
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-88.1%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 1%
1 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earnings
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — no measured print on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 18, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,260,321
21d48%0.0%593,656
63d47%-0.5%186,156
slope -1.42 over 23 bars
Bearish engulfing · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.2%155,188
21d50%0.0%72,976
63d50%+0.1%23,247
red body engulfs prior green
Dark cloud cover · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%161,258
21d50%+0.1%75,948
63d50%+0.2%24,279
closes below prior midpoint
Gap up · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%-1.0%179,739
21d43%-2.0%84,391
63d42%-4.5%26,470
opened 11.7% above prior close
Rsi oversold · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%0.0%224,994
21d48%0.0%106,081
63d50%0.0%33,395
RSI 14 ≤ 30
03
Price & timing
Price $0.26, RSI 26.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $1.76 · 200-day $6.04. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2022-09-02 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 28.20% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)OVERSOLD
26
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±42.5%
$0.11
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.04
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position7% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$0.66
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$1.06
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
50 / 50cohort n=13,084
Effectively a coin flip. A split this close is not an edge you can size on, whichever side is nominally ahead. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Elevated1.12× segment rate · n=921
Historically, micro names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 99% of cases (n=921).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.3σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$0 – $02 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Low 52w at $0.36, S1 at $0.35.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
100 / 100Falling knife
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds are a coin flip.
Historically, names tripping 1 validated red flag finished lower 12 months later in 50% of cases (n=13,084) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-0.25
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Price / bookBook value is negative — liabilities exceed assets — so there is no asset base for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
None of these ratios has a positive denominator, so none of them prices this company. 1 is marked not meaningful because the figure it divides into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableMicro-cap names are excluded from the level composer by design. At this size the daily range routinely swallows the distance between an entry and a stop, so the levels would describe noise rather than structure.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 6%, short interest is 13.78% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-2BALANCED · 30d
0 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Risk flagsDAILY · CONTEXT
-2
negative shareholder equity (liabilities exceed assets)
Signal
0 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
6.5%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
60.8%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)CROWDED
13.78%
Rising — shares short changed +131.6% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float73% OF SHARES
18.58M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)39th PCTILE
$722,511/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayTECHNICAL
-28.20%
VWAV fell −28.20% since the last close, with RSI at 24 (oversold).
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 2.02, 170% annual volatility, a -97% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−29.8%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−33.5%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
0.9×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownIT CAN HALVE
-97.4%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
2.02
The market explains about 3.6% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
170%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Falling knife
Selling pressure82
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: falling_knife — Still breaking lower without consolidation — a fresh swing-low printed and no basing pattern has formed yet.
What votes againstNightly
MedRisk flagsnegative shareholder equity (liabilities exceed assets)Daily · -2
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as unknown, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
1.4%tail cap binds
max defensible size 1.4% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
66.7%2.6× its cohort · sub-$1 names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this sub-$1 names segment: 25.6%. This name reads 2.6× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 4.3% · tail cap 1.4% · category cap 13.7%. The tail cap binds, so 1.4% is the number (n=97,254). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 17.4% against a 25.7% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
HighRestatement history8 restatements in 2 years. The flagged-company base rate is 6.2× the unflagged one.Integrity
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -97%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 170% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 2.02 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 1.4% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
3 logged
3 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on VWAVTHIS NAME
3
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksAEROSPACE & DEFENSE
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+226.0% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (tailwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
GEPeer$314.27+0.26%
RTXPeer$194.00+0.24%
BAPeer$198.20+0.61%
LMTPartner$533.38-0.88%
HWMPeer$229.67+1.73%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2025-07-15
Signal
Every backward window is negative.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 7 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 15, 2026
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later -6.0% · Two weeks later -0.7% · Rose on 9 of 15 report days
Across the last 15 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, VWAV moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.7% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Rising layoffs signal factories and builders are slowing.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +1.0% · Two weeks later -0.9% · Rose on 25 of 63 report days
Across the last 63 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, VWAV moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.9% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 11 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedFactories pay more for materials before they can raise their own prices, and higher rates slow orders.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -3.3% · A week later -12.2% · Two weeks later -9.8% · Rose on 6 of 15 report days
Across the last 15 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, VWAV moved -3.3% on average on the day and was 9.8% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Building products and equipment makers.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -5.0% · A week later +12.1% · Two weeks later -2.9% · Rose on 3 of 15 report days
Across the last 15 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, VWAV moved -5.0% on average on the day and was 2.9% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 11 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedFactories pay more for materials before they can raise their own prices, and higher rates slow orders.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -3.3% · A week later -12.2% · Two weeks later -9.8% · Rose on 6 of 15 report days
Across the last 15 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, VWAV moved -3.3% on average on the day and was 9.8% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
Goods have to be made and shipped before they are sold.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later -6.0% · Two weeks later -0.7% · Rose on 9 of 15 report days
Across the last 15 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, VWAV moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.7% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expected
Factories pay more for materials before they can raise their own prices, and higher rates slow orders.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -1.2% · A week later -1.7% · Two weeks later -4.5% · Rose on 6 of 14 report days
Across the last 14 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, VWAV moved -1.2% on average on the day and was 4.5% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Factories pay more for materials before they can raise their own prices, and higher rates slow orders.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.5% · A week later -0.5% · Two weeks later -3.1% · Rose on 6 of 13 report days
Across the last 13 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, VWAV moved -0.5% on average on the day and was 3.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · 2 confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
DOD · Customercustomer0.00%Rumored · manual
LMT · Partnerpartner-0.88%Confirmed · manual
NOC · Competitorcompetitor+0.65%Confirmed · manual
2 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.