Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) — Aerospace & Defense. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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HWM fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 9, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 3.58M · 3-mo avg 3.51M

Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM)

HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+3net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 5 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on fileCautionInflation-report days · ~5% bigger swingsOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 3/100 · Nov 9
$215.16
near a support level · Nov 9
$218–224
near a resistance level, a round-number price, the 50-day average and the 50-day average trade price · midpoint $221.02 · Nov 9
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend
In line
82% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend
Trading volume22% below normal0.78× its 20-day average
Past year's range$183.52 – $310.00lowest to highest price
From its peak30.2% belowpeak $310.00, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.20 to 1$0.20 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$192.14the setup is broken under this price
Momentum (RSI)51.7fires under 35 · fires near $179.19
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit32.5× next year42.4× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 47%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 43.1×

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 5.1%. Over the last 20 sessions, 52% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 5 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
51.7
fires under 35 · fires near $179.19
vs 50-day
✓
$222.32
below the line
Bollinger
●
$185.50
no lower pierce · fires near $181.29
VWAP 20
●
$206.09
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $205.99
Entry level
✓
$215.16
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context✓
+2.39
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.78×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
2.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$11.31
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-18
in 68 sessions
Next dividend
0.26% yld
no ex-date on file