UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) — Healthcare Plans. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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UNH fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 4.08M · 3-mo avg 4.99M

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)

UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporatedloading…
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QTick signal
+8net
4 bull / 1 bear factors · moderate
Bull 9 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeCautionPCE inflation days · ~30% bigger swingsOKNeutral tape · 5/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$374.71
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$396–402
center $399.01 · basis · bb upper + round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$14.08
3.7% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
Low
0.78× the norm · 52% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.80×
52-week range$255.97 – $461.62
Below high since 2015-40.3% · $630.73 high
Risk / reward0.74 : 1
Plan stop$346.44
Max pain$377.50 options cluster
RSI 1441.3 fires under 35 · fires near $368.33
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple16.7× fwd · 24.2× trailing
P/E vs its own past44th pctile · 25.7× median
Free cash flow yield4.7% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 0.4%. Over the last 20 sessions, 54% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
41.3
fires under 35 · fires near $368.33
vs 50-day
✓
$397.39
below the line
Bollinger
●
$365.34
no lower pierce · fires near $362.59
VWAP 20
✓
$384.00
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$374.71
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$350.00
2026-09-25 expiry · chain of 2026-09-23
MACD
Context●
-0.19
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.80×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
1.5%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$10.13
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-13
in 12 sessions
Next dividend
2.46% yld
no ex-date on file