Deep dive · NYSE: SWK
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Trend and Value are pulling against each other and the split is genuine rather than a formality. The net lands at +3 over 30d, a leaning reading on a dispersion of 0.41, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
earnings, sentiment vote up. 3 of 6 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
analyst moves vote down. 3 of 6 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Trend against Value.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are long gamma, so their hedging absorbs moves rather than amplifying them; separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −11.4%; and the binding position cap is 3.3% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean-0.36%
FrankfurtSWF+1.16%⏱London0L9E-2.23%⏱ZurichSWFCHF—⏱MéxicoSWK*0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 3 overseas venues listed above with a quote, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-11-06
Wall Street rating
Hold
-2% to the average target
27% buy · 73% hold · 0% sell
mean target $112
mean target $112
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $94.60 · +21.4%
200-day $85.16 · +34.9%
200-day $85.16 · +34.9%
Earnings
In 87 days
3 Feb 2027 · options imply ±6.4%
beat 7–8 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 80% · n=36,342
cohort P(beat) 80% · n=36,342
Valuation
17.7× forward
50th of its own five-year range
5yr median 21×
FCF yield 4.03%
FCF yield 4.03%
Dividend
2.93%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 3 clear
beta 1.37 · vol 50% ann.
worst drawdown -26%
worst drawdown -26%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NYSE · USDTools & Accessories
$114.85-0.42 · -0.36%CLOSED · vol 1.89M
52-week range↑ 86% off low · ↓ 6.4% off high
$61.90now $114.85$122.68
Quote Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
01Ratios · Jul 7, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 2.1 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 3 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
2.14GREY ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 7, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
6.7σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.12%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreCLEAR
F 8/9
Piotroski F-score 8 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.14×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.66
Leverage · long-term debt / total assetsthe share of everything the company owns that long-term borrowing funds0.25
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$5.72B
Free cash flow · TTMcash left after running and reinvesting in the business$725.60M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
28th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldSHRINKING
1.82%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
1.90%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
0.6%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
SBC / operating cash flowFLAT
10%
How much of the cash the business generates is being handed to employees as stock. The higher it runs, the more of a buyback is just offsetting it.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
80 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 3 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 2.14Altman-Z in the Grey · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.77M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.52long-term debt 0.52× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCLEARF 8/9Piotroski F-score 8 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 3 clear and 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Nov 8, 2026FAIR · 43/100
Business quality
3% net margin, 4% return on equity, -2% revenue growth, and capital earning 8% against a 10% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
43 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Nov 8, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
2.7%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
30.3%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
8.3%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
4.4%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-2.2pp
Earns 8% on invested capital that costs about 10%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Asset growth vs peersIN LINE
33rd pctile
The balance sheet grew -3% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+28.8%
3 months+11.9%
6 months+41.7%
Year to date+54.6%
1 year+65.0%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-1.5%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)MARGINS WIDENING
+35.9%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+33.6%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 12%
88 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsNov 4, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
80%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 7–8 OF THE LAST 8
7 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
67%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±3.8%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missASYMMETRIC
-0.8% / -7.8%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
Sells the newsON THE PRINT
No
No habit of selling off on a good report in the measured window.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
2.93%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
1-2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geographyFY2026 · dimensional XBRL
Signal
One segment is the company.
Tools & Outdoor is 87% of revenue across 2 disclosed segments, giving a product HHI of 7,734. That means this stock's cycle is that one market's cycle, and the diversification the other lines suggest is not really there.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Nov 6, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.1%1,163,542
21d47%-0.4%549,860
63d47%-0.8%174,335
slope +0.24 over 40 bars
Spinning top
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%-0.1%200,974
21d49%-0.2%94,842
63d49%-0.1%30,228
small body, shadows both sides
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%1,001,589
21d49%0.0%470,024
63d52%+0.2%147,634
three troughs ≈ equal
Descending triangle · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%527,677
21d48%0.0%247,592
63d49%0.0%78,062
flat support, falling resistance
Cup and handle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.3%717,973
21d46%-0.6%340,024
63d47%-1.3%107,220
U-base + small handle pullback
Rsi overbought · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d40%0.0%271,855
21d42%0.0%127,927
63d45%0.0%40,293
RSI 75 ≥ 70
0350TH OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $114.85, 17.7× forward earnings, RSI 75, and dealers long gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2003 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $94.60 · 200-day $85.16. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-11-04 → 2026-11-06
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Down 0.36% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)OVERBOUGHT
75
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.0%
$4.58
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+1.93
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position94% OF RANGE
Upper band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$103.90
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$108.93
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
3 Feb 2027 · in 87 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number.
2026-11-10 · in 2 daysInflation (CPI)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
46 / 53cohort n=3,635
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.32× segment rate · n=6,842
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 88% of cases (n=6,842).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
1.8σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$110 – $1141 support
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $112.57.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 2 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 53% of cases (n=3,635) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-1.37pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-32.32
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months17.7×5yr median 21×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported20.6×50th of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth1.95
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit1.1×5yr median 0.9×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.9×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay15.8×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off33.1×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value4.03%
3 of the 8 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingNov 6, 2026
Entryzone of S1
$114.28In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
Target52-week high
$122.68$122–$124
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$105.11risk $9.17/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.92:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-17.6%
short-term trend line · $94.60
To the 200-day
-25.8%
primary trend line · $85.16
To the put wall
-12.9%
heaviest put open interest · $100.00
To the call wall
-19.5%
heaviest call open interest · $92.50
To the composer's target
+6.8%
52-week high · set Nov 6, 2026 · $122.68
To the composer's stop
-8.5%
2× ATR below entry · set Nov 6, 2026 · $105.11
To the 52-week high
+6.8%
highest print of the past year · $122.68
To the 52-week low
-46.1%
lowest print of the past year · $61.90
Options-implied week ±6.4%
$107.51 – $122.19
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$110.27 – $119.43
±$4.58 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $114.28 · stop $105.11 · target $122.68, a 0.92:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Gamma mapChain · Nov 8, 2026
Signal
Long gamma — moves get absorbed.
Dealers hedge against the move, which damps volatility around the current strikes. It makes the tape quieter without saying anything about which way it goes.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-11-20 · Chain · Nov 8, 2026
Max pain-12.9%
$100.00
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (OI)PUT-HEAVY
1.07
48% calls
52% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.89
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $7.34
±6.4%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$100.00PUT1,869
$92.50CALL881
$100.00CALL526
$85.00PUT525
$110.00CALL351
$105.00CALL297
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-11-20CallsPutsMax pain $100.00
25
$140.00
060
$135.00
027
$130.00
036
$125.00
0205
$120.00
091
$115.00
0351
$110.00
0297
$105.00
263526
$100.00
2k201
$97.50
12116
$95.00
222881
$92.50
50148
$90.00
7144
$87.50
397
$85.00
5251
$82.50
51
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$122.68+6.8%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$92.50-19.5%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$100.00-12.9%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$94.60-17.6%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$100.00-12.9%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +3
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 103%, short interest is 5.24% of float, and 8 analysts average $112.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+3LEANING · 30d
2 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
-1
2 price-target cuts in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+3
latest EPS beat by 48%
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (100/100)
Signal
2 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +3 over 30d, a leaning reading. 3 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readNov 8, 2026
Signal
The evidence families are split down the middle.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.41 means the disagreement is a genuine split.
Wall Street8 covering firms
Consensus rating8 ANALYSTS
Hold
27% buy · 73% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 8 covering firms.
Mean price target-2%
$112
$96now $115$140
A $96–$140 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$6.31
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Wells Fargo$90↓50/100
Mizuho$105↓50/100
Wells Fargo$95↑50/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
103.1%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.3%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
5.24%
Rising — shares short changed +13.6% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float100% OF SHARES
154.98M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)91st PCTILE
$193.82M/day
At this depth, position size is not a constraint for a retail account.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Crew Debra Ann · DirectorAward$15,483—22 Sep
Crew Debra Ann · DirectorAward$12,839—22 Sep
Crew Debra Ann · DirectorAward$31,250—22 Sep
Laschinger Mary A · DirectorAward$2,208—22 Sep
Mitchell Adrian V · DirectorAward$10,384—22 Sep
Mitchell Adrian V · DirectorAward$31,250—22 Sep
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
-0.36%
SWK was little changed −0.36% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “SWK Jan 2029 130.000 call (SWK290119C00130000) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Finance UK” (Yahoo Finance UK).
News tone · 7-day—
100 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 48 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
16h agoStanley Black & Decker Q3 Earnings Call Highlights - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
SatWhat Changed In Stanley Black & Decker’s Story? - TrefisTrefisnot scored
FriSWK Jan 2029 130.000 call (SWK290119C00130000) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Finance UKYahoo Finance UKnot scored
ThuSWK Maintained by Wells Fargo -- Price Target Raised to $115 - GuruFocusGuruFocusnot scored
ThuStanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Organic Growth ... - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
ThuStanley Black & Decker (SWK) Surges 16.87% Amid Midterm Election Optimism - GuruFocusGuruFocusnot scored
ThuSWK Feb 2027 80.000 call (SWK270219C00080000) interactive stock chart - Yahoo Finance UKYahoo Finance UKnot scored
WedWhy is Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) stock soaring today - StockStoryStockStorynot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net buying.
5 of 6 disclosures are buys and 1 is a sale. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0517 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.37, 50% annual volatility, a -26% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−11.4%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-26.1%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
1.37
Moves about 1.4× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
50%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure47
Overheat34
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
LowAnalyst moves2 price-target cuts in 90d90d · -1
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.3%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.3% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
0.6%0.1× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 44.3% · tail cap 3.3% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 3.4% is the number (n=25,762). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
MedLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 13.1% against a 11.0% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — above the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+3.21% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You're already heavy in this market
A 1.37 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
Our track record17 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
57 logged
57 calls logged on this name, 17 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
0610-K disclosed linksTOOLS & ACCESSORIES
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 6 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-75.6% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (tailwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
SNACompetitor$367.22+0.21%
RBCPeer$474.45+2.08%
LECOPeer$275.35+1.18%
TKRPeer$102.03+2.09%
TTCPeer$104.84-0.28%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Inflation (CPI)
2026-11-10. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockNov 1, 2026
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +0.9% · Rose on 18 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, SWK moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
GDP (advance estimate)Usually helps when the economy grows faster than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +1.0% · A week later -0.9% · Two weeks later +1.4% · Rose on 10 of 13 report days
Across the last 13 GDP (advance estimate) reports since Jul 28, 2023, SWK moved +1.0% on average on the day and was 1.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Rising layoffs signal factories and builders are slowing.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +0.4% · Rose on 81 of 172 report days
Across the last 172 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, SWK moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Housing starts is due in 10 days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expectedBuilding products and equipment makers.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +1.7% · Two weeks later -0.4% · Rose on 17 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, SWK moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI) is due in 5 days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expectedFactories pay more for materials before they can raise their own prices, and higher rates slow orders.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +1.5% · Rose on 20 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, SWK moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 1.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Retail sales is due in 9 days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expectedGoods have to be made and shipped before they are sold.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +0.9% · Rose on 18 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, SWK moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Factories pay more for materials before they can raise their own prices, and higher rates slow orders.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.6% · A week later -1.3% · Two weeks later -1.2% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, SWK moved -0.6% on average on the day and was 1.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI) is due in 2 days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedFactories pay more for materials before they can raise their own prices, and higher rates slow orders.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later +1.3% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, SWK moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 1.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Customer momentumNov 8, 2026
Customer momentumTOP
+18.9%
The dependency-weighted trailing return of the customers this company discloses a revenue dependence on. Their tape leads its orders.
Lead-lag gapAHEAD OF CUSTOMERS
+9.9%
This company's own move less its customers' weighted move. A wide gap in either direction usually closes.
Disclosed customer dependencies
CustomerRevenue weightWindow returnLast filed
LOW14.0%+18.9%2025-02-18
Weights are as disclosed in the filings, so they describe the last reported period rather than today. Historical, point-in-time backtest of a cross-sectional screen (135 months, 2013-2026), gross of trading costs. The equal-weighted base effect is marginal (t 1.84); statistical significance relies on the dependency weighting (t 2.02). Validated on monthly rebalancing; served daily on the same 21-bar horizon. This is a research screen describing a group-level historical spread - not a forecast of any individual stock's return.
Connections6 links · 4 confirmed
Direct connections · 6 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
SNA · Competitorcompetitor+0.21%Confirmed · manual
LOW · Customercustomer-1.18%Rumored · manual
HD · Customercustomer-1.85%Rumored · manual
HD · Suppliersupplier-1.85%Confirmed · 10K
LOW · Suppliersupplier-1.18%Confirmed · 10K
SSD · Competitorcompetitor-0.98%Confirmed · manual
4 of 6 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.