Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) — $511.82 +4.85%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

SPOTpeers & supply-chain relationships

SPOT fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 1.95M · Avg 2.04M
SPOTSpotify Technology S.A.$511.82+4.85%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

0 of 5 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 3. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+3net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
0 of 5 aligned — not yet
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on fileCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 1.1× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$504.59
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$516–528
center $521.76 · basis · bb upper + daily pivot + round + sma 200 · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~83% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.3× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.96× · 1.95M vs 2.04M avg
52-week range$405.00 – $748.30
Below high since 2018-34.8% · $785.00 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.3
Plan stop$444.73
Max pain
RSI 1458.6 fires under 35 · fires near $432.56
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$511.82
$430.01 · -16.0%-16.0%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+9.1% · $558.46+9.1%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers0 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
58.6
fires under 35 · fires near $432.56
vs 50-day
$483.88
above the line · fires near $487.79
Bollinger
$458.97
no lower pierce · fires near $453.53
VWAP 20
$491.83
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $491.37
Entry level
$504.59
level below · fires near $509.26
Put wall
not on file
MACD
-0.30
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.96×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
4.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$23.32
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
3 Nov 2026 · before the bell
bmo · in 84 days
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file
prices 15-min delayed